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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 84, 99-05-03

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 84, 3 May 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] RUSSIA MAY CONSTRUCT AIRCRAFT IN ARMENIA
  • [02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION CRITICIZES DRAFT BILL ON MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
  • [03] GEORGIAN SUPREME COURT REJECTS CLEMENCY FOR IMPRISONED WARLORD
  • [04] WEST GEORGIAN TOWN COUNCIL RENAMES MAIN BOULEVARD AFTER GAMSAKHURDIA
  • [05] KAZAKH JOURNALIST SENT TO PSYCHATIRIC HOSPITAL
  • [06] KAZAKHSTAN TO RESTRICT FREE HIGHER EDUCATION
  • [07] VERDICT ON KYRGYZ NEWSPAPER UPHELD
  • [08] KYRGYZSTAN'S PARLIAMENT PASSES ELECTORAL CODE
  • [09] ABDUCTORS RELEASE THREE TAJIK POLICE OFFICERS
  • [10] TURKMEN PRESIDENT TO YIELD SOME POWERS TO PARLIAMENT

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [11] REFUGEES FLOOD INTO MACEDONIA
  • [12] GEORGIEVSKI: MACEDONIA FACES GRIM CHOICES
  • [13] MORE FOREIGN AID FOR MACEDONIA
  • [14] MACEDONIA ARRESTS FOUR AS BOMBING SUSPECTS
  • [15] UCK TAKES STRATEGIC TOWN NEAR ALBANIAN BORDER
  • [16] MORE ALBANIAN-YUGOSLAV BORDER CLASHES
  • [17] MORE THAN 20,000 REFUGEES ARRIVE IN ALBANIA
  • [18] ALBANIAN PREMIER MEDIATES BETWEEN RIVAL KOSOVARS
  • [19] ROBINSON: WAR CRIMES NO ACCIDENT
  • [20] NATO: 'NO REWARD FOR MILOSEVIC'
  • [21] NATO HITS SERBIAN POWER PLANTS
  • [22] MONTENEGRO APPEALS TO NATO
  • [23] ROMANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER GIVES NATO GREEN LIGHT TO AIRPORTS
  • [24] ROMANIA DENIES PROCESSING OIL FOR YUGOSLAVIA
  • [25] KOSTOV BRIEFS PARLIAMENT ON MISSILE INCIDENT, PRAISES NATO ACCORD
  • [26] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT BLAMES YUGOSLAV GOVERNMENT FOR STAGNATION
  • [27] BULGARIA TO CLOSE BORDERS WITH YUGOSLAVIA

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [28] AZERBAIJANI ECONOMY STILL GROWING, BUT PROBLEMS ACCUMULATE

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] RUSSIA MAY CONSTRUCT AIRCRAFT IN ARMENIA

    Hovannes Ohanian, an Armenian senior executive of Russia's Sukhoi Production Company, said in Yerevan on 29 April that the company may begin manufacturing light sport aircraft in Armenia, provided a tax exemption agreement is reached with the Armenian government, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Ohanian said Sukhoi wants the present, three-year exemption from profit tax for foreign companies extended to five years. He said Sukhoi would then invest some $7 million in Armenian production facilities, enabling it to produce 40 planes in 2000 and 80 the following year. LF

    [02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION CRITICIZES DRAFT BILL ON MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

    The 17 opposition parliamentary deputies aligned in the Democratic Bloc issued a statement on 30 April protesting the refusal of the parliamentary majority to discuss a draft bill on municipal elections prepared by three opposition groups, Turan reported. The bloc argued that the parliament's decision to proceed with discussion of its alternative draft law in the absence of opposition deputies is a violation of parliamentary procedure. The Democratic Bloc announced a boycott of parliamentary sessions last month to demand a debate on the performance of the legislature and its speaker (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 April 1999). Lawyer Vidadi Makhmudov told Turan on 1 May that the parliament's draft bill on municipal elections is "unprogressive," as it does not provide for the allocation of seats under the proportional system or envisage municipal elections in the capital, Baku. LF

    [03] GEORGIAN SUPREME COURT REJECTS CLEMENCY FOR IMPRISONED WARLORD

    The Georgian Supreme Court has a rejected an appeal by the lawyer of Mkhedrioni leader Djaba Ioseliani to review the latter's 11-year sentence, Caucasus Press reported on 1 May. Ioseliani was sentenced in November 1998 on charges of attempting to assassinate Georgian head of state Eduard Shevardnadze in August 1995 as well as of treason and robbery (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 November 1998). Lodging the appeal earlier this year, Gabunia argued that Ioseliani's trial was illegal, since at the time of his arrest in November 1995 he was a parliamentary deputy and therefore immune from prosecution. He said at that time that if the Supreme Court rejected his plea, he would appeal to the International Human Rights court in Strasbourg (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 February 1999). Ioseliani has been hospitalized with tuberculosis of the bone marrow, according to "Rezonansi" of 3 May. LF

    [04] WEST GEORGIAN TOWN COUNCIL RENAMES MAIN BOULEVARD AFTER GAMSAKHURDIA

    The municipal council in Zugdidi, the capital of the late Zviad Gamsakhurdia's home region of Mingrelia, has renamed the town's central street after the deceased president, Caucasus Press reported on 1 May. The council also presented a house in the town to Gamsakhurdia's widow, Manana Archvadze-Gamsakhurdia. LF

    [05] KAZAKH JOURNALIST SENT TO PSYCHATIRIC HOSPITAL

    On arriving at Almaty main station from Astana last week, Armial Tasymbekov was arrested by National Security Committee officials and taken to a psychiatric clinic, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported on 30 April. Tasymbekov is suspected of involvement in daubing slogans on buildings and fences in Astana that denounced President Nursultan Nazarbaev and lauded former Premier Akezhan Kazhegeldin (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 31 March and 21 April 1999). LF

    [06] KAZAKHSTAN TO RESTRICT FREE HIGHER EDUCATION

    Beginning this year, university students in Kazakhstan will be required to pay fees ranging from $700-$1,000, ITAR-TASS reported on 2 May. Young people from low-income families will have access to interest-free loans to finance their studies, while some 19,000 exceptionally gifted high-school graduates will retain the right to continue their education free of charge. LF

    [07] VERDICT ON KYRGYZ NEWSPAPER UPHELD

    The Bishkek City Court on 1 May approved the fines that a district court handed down one month earlier on the independent weekly "Res Publika," RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The court had fined the paper 200,000 som ($6,670) for insulting the honor and dignity of Amanbek Karypkulov, president of Kyrgyzstan's National Television and Radio Corporation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 April 1999). On 12 January, the newspaper published an open letter from 20 employees at the corporation to President Askar Akaev, Prime Minister Jumabek Ibraimov, and the speakers of both chambers of the parliament protesting that Karypkulov, in his capacity as ideological secretary of the Kirghiz SSR Communist Party in the early 1980s, had repressed media freedom and continues to do so now. The newspaper's editor, Yuri Maksimov, is to appeal to the country's Supreme Court. LF

    [08] KYRGYZSTAN'S PARLIAMENT PASSES ELECTORAL CODE

    The Legislative Assembly--the lower chamber of the parliament--passed the new election code in the second reading on 29 April, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The code provides for 15 of the 60 seats in the new parliament to be allocated to political parties under the proportional system. The parliament had earlier rejected that provision. Only those political parties that registered with the Ministry of Justice one year before the election date (23 March 2000) are eligible to contest those seats. LF

    [09] ABDUCTORS RELEASE THREE TAJIK POLICE OFFICERS

    "As a gesture of unilateral good will in the name of peace," opposition field commander Mansur Muakalov released on 1 May three of the six police officers his subordinates had abducted two days earlier, AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 and 30 April, 1999). But Muakalov said he will continue to hold the other three men until the Tajik authorities comply with his demand for the release of five opposition fighters held on murder charges. LF

    [10] TURKMEN PRESIDENT TO YIELD SOME POWERS TO PARLIAMENT

    Saparmurat Niyazov told the parliament on 30 April that he will transfer some of his oversight powers to the parliament, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported. A special commission, chaired by the president, will formulate the necessary constitutional amendments, which must be endorsed by the People's Council at its next meeting in December, according to Interfax. Also on 30 April, the parliament passed legislation on the conduct of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 12 December, which for the first time will be held on an alternative basis. LF

    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [11] REFUGEES FLOOD INTO MACEDONIA

    Some 11,000 Kosovars are waiting to enter Macedonia at the Blace border crossing, Reuters reported on 3 May. Paula Ghedini, who is a spokeswoman for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, said the previous day at Cegrane that some 7,000 Kosovars arrived in Macedonia on 1 May. She added that only 600 Kosovars were able to proceed to third countries the same day. Ghedini noted that in various parts of Macedonia, some 80,000 refugees are packed into nine camps designed for only a fraction of that number. The newly- opened Cegrane camp was planned for 4,000 people but currently houses 14,000. German soldiers are working round the clock to put up tents but cannot keep pace with the influx of new arrivals. Thousands of refugees at several of the camps sleep on plastic sheets in the open. Ghedini described sanitary conditions as "horrendous." More than 90,000 Kosovars are staying with private families. PM

    [12] GEORGIEVSKI: MACEDONIA FACES GRIM CHOICES

    Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski told "The Daily Telegraph" of 3 May that "either we will be ruined as a state [by the refugee influx] or we will have to close our frontiers." He stressed that "Europe must give us a safety valve" by providing more aid and by taking greater numbers of refugees. Georgievski suggested that his country would be unable to accommodate a possible new wave of refugees of up to 50,000 people. Georgievski also said that Macedonia might reconsider its decision not to allow its territory to be used to launch a land invasion of Serbia, but he stressed it would do so only if the parliament approved the change and received "assurances on the aims of such an offensive and the involvement of other Balkan states." PM

    [13] MORE FOREIGN AID FOR MACEDONIA

    Georgievski also told "The Daily Telegraph" of 3 May that he is disappointed that unnamed European countries, which he said, have taken in fewer than 1,000 refugees each, criticize his country, which could soon be home to some 200,000 Kosovars. The London- based daily suggested that he was referring primarily to the U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair is slated to arrive in Macedonia on 3 May. Two days earlier, French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin visited Macedonia and pledged a supplementary aid package for that country amounting to $26 million. France previously pledged some $160 million for Macedonia and Albania together. Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy told Macedonian officials that Ottawa will provide $24 million for refugee relief and $6 million in economic assistance. In Bonn on 3 May, Interior Minister Otto Schily said Germany, which is currently home to 10, 000 Kosovar refugees, will take in another 10,000. PM

    [14] MACEDONIA ARRESTS FOUR AS BOMBING SUSPECTS

    Macedonian police arrested four suspects in Kumanovo on 1 May in connection with a recent grenade attack on a French sentry post (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 27 April 1999). The suspects had bought grenades in Yugoslavia and were drunk when the attack took place, Reuters reported. Kumanovo is a center of Macedonia's small ethnic Serbian minority. PM

    [15] UCK TAKES STRATEGIC TOWN NEAR ALBANIAN BORDER

    Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) fighters recently took control of the road from Bajram Curri to Koshara and occupied Yugoslav army barracks there, Reuters reported on 2 May. The UCK can now transport weapons and ammunition from Albania into Kosova and bring wounded guerillas back. UCK guerillas told Reuters that the capture of Koshara marked a "turning point" for them, adding that more than 200 Serbian soldiers and paramilitaries were killed in the fight for the town, which is near the border. Currently, the front line is at Batusha near Junik, overlooking the plains of Gjakova and Decani. UCK soldiers, however, noted that the Yugoslav army still frequently shells the route between Bajram Curri and Koshara. The guerrillas said they aim to link up with UCK units operating inside Kosova. FS

    [16] MORE ALBANIAN-YUGOSLAV BORDER CLASHES

    Serbian and Albanian forces exchanged fire in the villages of Vlahen and Letaj in the Has Mountains, while Serbian forces fired several mortar shells into villages near Tropoja and Morina over the weekend, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Tirana on 2 May. No casualties were reported. Meanwhile, NATO planes attacked Serbian artillery near Morina on the border. FS

    [17] MORE THAN 20,000 REFUGEES ARRIVE IN ALBANIA

    Serbian forces expelled more than 20,000 Kosovars to Albania over the weekend. Most of the refugees came from Prizren. Reuters quoted them as saying that the city has become a "depopulated wasteland." Refugees arriving on 2 May said Serbian forces close to the Morina border crossing separated women and children from the men and sent the women and children back into Prizren as human shields. Others told BBC Television of 3 May that during their flight, they saw Serbian forces killing civilians. There are currently more than 120,000 Kosovar refugees in Kukes. The UNHCR and Albanian authorities continued evacuations from Kukes to other parts of Albania. Albanian President Rexhep Meidani said in Bonn on 1 May that Albania will need aid totaling $600 million this year to cope with the refugee influx, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. FS

    [18] ALBANIAN PREMIER MEDIATES BETWEEN RIVAL KOSOVARS

    Pandeli Majko told Kosovar shadow-state Prime Minister Bujar Bukoshi on 2 May that the Albanian government wants to bring the rival Kosovar groups together at a round table, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Tirana. The UCK does not recognize Bukoshi and has named Hashim Thaci as premier. Majko called for a "spirit of dialog." Bukoshi is a member of the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK), the party of Ibrahim Rugova, who is under Serbian house arrest in Prishtina. Albanian Foreign Minister Paskal Milo appealed to the rival groups to coordinate their actions, dpa reported. He stressed that "there is no time to lose [over] who will be the prime minister and who will be ministers." He added that "it is important to set up a government representing all [ethnic] Albanians in Kosova." FS

    [19] ROBINSON: WAR CRIMES NO ACCIDENT

    Mary Robinson, who is the UN's chief official for human rights, said in Blace, Macedonia, on 2 May that the Serbian policy of ethnic- cleansing is "deliberate and unacceptable." She stressed that those responsible must be held to account and that "we cannot have impunity." Robinson described the accounts she heard from Kosovar refugees as revealing "savagery and a total lack of respect for human beings" on the part of the refugees' tormentors. In Belgrade, Yugoslav Assistant Foreign Minister Nebojsa Vujovic denied that Serbian forces have committed atrocities. He suggested that reports of atrocities were invented by NATO. PM

    [20] NATO: 'NO REWARD FOR MILOSEVIC'

    Atlantic alliance spokesman Jamie Shea said in Brussels on 2 May that NATO is pleased that U.S. civil rights leader Jessie Jackson obtained the release of three U.S. soldiers from Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. Shea added, however, that the alliance will not "reward" the Yugoslav leader for the gesture and that Serbian forces should not have taken the men prisoner in the first place. In Washington, U.S. President Bill Clinton said that "as we welcome our soldiers home, our thoughts also turn to the over one million Kosovars who are unable to go home because of the policies of Belgrade. Today we reaffirm our resolve to persevere until they too can return with security and self-government." Defense Secretary William Cohen noted: "We will not stop the bombing but intensify the bombing" of Serbia. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot called Milosevic "a master manipulator" and dismissed a letter Milosevic gave Jackson for Clinton as a "stunt," AFP reported. PM

    [21] NATO HITS SERBIAN POWER PLANTS

    The Atlantic alliance hit Serbia's five main power-generating facilities during the night of 2-3 May, Shea said in Brussels. He noted that "what we have done is demonstrate our ability to shut off the power system whenever we want it. ... [When the power is] shut off for a significant period of time, the Yugoslav army has to go through enormous trouble to try to restore that power." The previous day, NATO spokesman Conrad Freytag expressed regret that NATO aircraft hit a bus on the Nis- Prishtina road on 1 May, killing at least 40. Freytag noted that the bus had been crossing a bridge, which he called a legitimate military target. PM

    [22] MONTENEGRO APPEALS TO NATO

    Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan said in Podgorica on 1 May that his government condemns a recent NATO attack that killed four civilians in the village of Murino. Burzan stressed that the attack had no legitimate military purpose and that attacks on civilian targets in Montenegro only serve to "encourage Milosevic and his policies" there. The following day, Clinton announced that the U.S. is joining the EU in imposing further economic sanctions on Serbia but that the sanctions do not affect Montenegro, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In Podgorica, the command of the Yugoslav Second Army issued an order prohibiting ships and boats from using the civilian harbor at Bar. The mountainous republic now has no air, sea, or rail links to the outside world, AP reported. Elsewhere, an Information Ministry spokesman said that the army released a French television cameraman the previous day. Soldiers had arrested the Frenchman on 20 April. PM

    [23] ROMANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER GIVES NATO GREEN LIGHT TO AIRPORTS

    Victor Babiuc said on 30 April that NATO planes are "implicitly" allowed to use Romanian airports because of the parliament's approval for alliance planes to use Romanian air space, Reuters reported. Babiuc said "this right obviously applies to those airports close to the Yugoslav border." He added that "we believe the NATO intervention is fully justified. It is in no way aggression but rather a means of persuading Milosevic to return to the negotiating table." Hundreds of car drivers continued to line up along the Romanian-Yugoslav border to travel to Serbia to sell most of the gasoline in their tanks for a profit (see also below). And in Bucharest, several hundred people demonstrated on 1 May against the NATO air strikes. PB

    [24] ROMANIA DENIES PROCESSING OIL FOR YUGOSLAVIA

    Transport Minister Traian Basescu on 1 May dismissed Bulgarian claims that Romania is processing crude oil from Serbian tankers along the Danube River, Reuters reported. Basescu said "none of Romania's ports on the Danube can unload crude from barges. We can only load ships with oil products." A Bulgarian customs chief said the previous day that Serbian tankers are carrying crude oil to Romanian terminals (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 April 1999). PB

    [25] KOSTOV BRIEFS PARLIAMENT ON MISSILE INCIDENT, PRAISES NATO ACCORD

    Bulgarian Premier Ivan Kostov informed the parliament on 30 April about the errant NATO missile that destroyed a home in a Sofia suburb two days earlier, Reuters reported. Kostov said that the government will work closely with NATO to ensure that such an incident does not occur again. He said Bulgaria's western border will be marked electronically and that Sofia has asked NATO for "friend or foe" radar equipment that would allow Bulgarian security forces to identify foreign aircraft. Kostov hailed the government's air corridor accord with NATO, which he said no other country was able to secure. The National Assembly is to vote on the accord as early as 4 May. Since Kostov's Union of Democratic Forces has a majority in the legislative body, the accord is expected to pass, even though polls show that a majority of Bulgarians oppose it. PB

    [26] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT BLAMES YUGOSLAV GOVERNMENT FOR STAGNATION

    Petar Stoyanov said on 30 April that Yugoslavia is "isolating" Bulgaria from Western Europe, AP reported, citing an interview in the French daily "Le Monde." Stoyanov said that "despite all our efforts, foreign investors are wary." He added that "the Serbs must not think they can count on our help because we are fed up with being hostages for the last seven years to the policies of Milosevic." Stoyanov also repeated a call for a Balkan version of the Marshall Plan because "after 45 years of Communism, we cannot get out of this alone." In Sofia, some 8,000 people rallied on 1 May against NATO and the Bulgarian government. Socialist Party leader Georgi Parvanov said "we are against this illegal war." PB

    [27] BULGARIA TO CLOSE BORDERS WITH YUGOSLAVIA

    The Interior Ministry said on 30 April that it will close all five of its border crossings with Serbia and allow only passage of goods and people for humanitarian reasons, BTA reported. The measure is aimed at preventing citizens from crossing the border and selling their gas to Yugoslavs at a large profit, as hundreds of them have been doing recently. PB

    [C] END NOTE

    [28] AZERBAIJANI ECONOMY STILL GROWING, BUT PROBLEMS ACCUMULATE

    By Michael Wyzan

    To all appearances, Azerbaijan seemed to feel the effects of the decline in world oil prices and the Russian crisis relatively little last year. However, there are a number of indicators of economic problems, especially in the external sector. Foreign investment and oil exports are declining, and there is a net outflow of foreign businessmen.

    The country's 10 percent GDP growth in 1998 was the highest in the CIS; indeed, such growth accelerated during the fourth quarter to 13.1 percent, led by a booming construction industry and, to a lesser extent, the transport and communications sectors. Industry and agriculture grew more slowly, however. The 2.2 percent growth in industrial production was the highest since independence, but this conceals the fact that non-oil industrial production fell last year by 4.1 percent.

    Developments in the Azerbaijani oil sector were both positive and negative. Crude oil production reached 11.4 million metric tons in 1998, up from 9.0 million tons the previous year and the highest since 1991, as new offshore wells of the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC) came on line. On the other hand, the price received for that oil fell by 18.1 percent.

    Largely as a result of that decline, exports during January-September 1998 fell by 11 percent relative to the same period in 1997, with oil exports down by 36 percent and those of semi-processed cotton (the second most important export good) down by 67 percent. From January to September, imports were up by 22 percent and the trade deficit reached $740 million, compared with $448 million during the same period in 1997.

    As expected in a country experiencing a major inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into its oil sector, while new oil production and exports are slow to appear, Azerbaijan has had enormous current account deficits. In 1998, the shortfall was about 35 percent of GDP, a figure that the IMF projects will increase in the coming years.

    With investment in the oil sector leveling off, FDI in January-September 1998--of which the oil sector accounted for 81 percent--decreased to $674 million from $724 million during the same period in 1997. However, oil bonuses during January-September 1998 were $73 million, up from $64 million in 1997 as a whole.

    Another area where problems have arisen owing to the decline in oil export revenues is the state budget: the general government deficit was 4.3 percent of GDP in 1998, up from 3.6 percent the year before. Oil-related revenue was 47.5 percent of total budget revenue in 1997 but fell to 31.7 percent in January-June 1998.

    Overall, the Azerbaijani economy seems to have suffered less contagion from Russia's economic crisis than other CIS lands. The manat closed 1998 at 3, 886 to the dollar, almost exactly where it was at the end of 1997 (and down from 4,440 at the close of 1995). Not surprisingly, in the face of such stability, consumer prices declined by 3.5 percent last year (December- to-December). However, the standard of living has benefited little from such stability, as average monthly wages--both in dollars and in constant manats--grew more slowly last year than in 1997. The average dollar wage was only $44.8 in the final quarter of 1998.

    This year's prognoses suggest that economic performance will be somewhat weaker than in 1998, with the government program envisioning 7 percent GDP growth and average annual inflation of 4 percent. Among the worrying indicators are cutbacks by international oil consortia operating in the country. The AIOC, for example, announced in February that it would cut costs by 20 percent and lay off 25-30 expatriate staff. The numbers of foreigners working in Baku is declining, having peaked at 6,000.

    This outflow reflects more than the downturn in the oil sector: it was reported in late March that 110 Turkish companies left Azerbaijan last year, pointing to arbitrariness and corruption among government officials as well as an unclear and frequently changing tax policy. In another harbinger of a downturn, the boom in housing construction has ended, with apartment prices falling for the first time in recent years.

    In granting the country a $112 million loan in late January ($79 million of which was a special loan to cope with low oil prices and the Russian financial crisis), the IMF pointed to the need to strengthen and streamline the public sector, restructure the banks, improve the privatization process, and reform public enterprises. This is a standard set of desirable reforms for transition countries.

    However, world experience suggests that countries specializing in oil are particularly likely to be burdened with a corrupt and inefficient government that is easily swayed by interest groups. Thus, Azerbaijan's task is especially difficult, suggesting that high priority must be given to economic diversification.

    The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria.

    03-05-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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