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Voice of America, 96-12-11

Voice of America: Selected Articles Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>


CONTENTS

  • [01] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)
  • [02] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)
  • [03] GERMANY / BOSNIA (L) BY KYLE KING (BONN)
  • [04] NATO / RUSSIA (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)
  • [05] SERBIA PROTESTS (L) BY BARRY WOOD (BELGRADE)
  • [06] SERBIAN DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)
  • [07] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

  • [01] WEDNESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST
    NUMBER=6-09924
    TELEPHONE=619-3335
    EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES
    CONTENT=
    // EDITORS, PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS PERISHABLE MATERIAL AND BECOMES DATED AFTER 10 P-M E-S-T ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11TH //

    INTRO: HOW DOES ONE DISPOSE OF DEADLY PLUTONIUM TAKEN FROM DISMANTLED NUCLEAR WEAPONS? THAT ISSUE TOPS AT LEAST ONE OF TODAY'S EDITORIAL COLUMNS IN A MAJOR U-S NEWSPAPER. OTHER TOPICS INCLUDE: THE RENEWED PROMISE OF DEMOCRACY IN GUATEMALA; THE ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN SERBIA; OUTDATED U-S GOVERNMENT COMPUTER SYSTEMS, AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT THEM; THE F-B-I'S CALL FOR HELP IN THE OLYMPIC BOMBING, AND SADDAM HUSSEIN BACK IN THE CRUDE OIL BUSINESS. NOW, HERE WITH A CLOSER LOOK IS _______________ AND TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

    TEXT: THE U-S GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED A PLAN TO DISPOSE OF TONS OF PLUTONIUM TAKEN FROM DEACTIVATED AMERICAN AND RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS BY BURYING SOME OF IT IN GLASS AND USING THE REST TO FUEL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. TODAY'S NEW YORK TIMES IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISKS INVOLVED.

    VOICE: "UNTIL THESE BASKETBALL-SIZED NUCLEAR CORES, NOW UNDER GUARD AT SELECTED SITES IN EACH COUNTRY, ARE SOMEHOW NEUTRALIZED, THEY POSE A DOUBLE THREAT. EITHER NATION COULD REVERSE THE COURSE OF DISARMAMENT AND STICK THE WARHEAD PLUTONIUM RIGHT BACK INTO NEW WEAPONS. OR THIEVES, ESPECIALLY IN ECONOMICALLY DISTRESSED RUSSIA, MIGHT STEAL SOME ... FOR USE IN BOMBS BY TERRORISTS OR RENEGADE NATIONS... BUT BEFORE VENTURING TOO FAR DOWN THIS [DISPOSAL] PATH, THE ADMINISTRATION NEEDS TO BUILD IN ADEQUATE PROTECTIONS. THE UNITED STATES MUST MAKE IT CLEAR THAT USING REACTORS TO RID THE WORLD OF LOOSE MILITARY WARHEADS DOES NOT SIGNAL AN END TO AMERICAN OPPOSITION TO A PLUTONIUM FUEL CYCLE FOR POWER REACTORS."

    TEXT: TURNING TO A MORE CHEERFUL SUBJECT, THE BOSTON GLOBE IS APPLAUDING THE LATEST MOVES TOWARD ESTABLISHING DEMOCRACY IN LONG-TROUBLED GUATEMALA.

    VOICE: "...MEN AND WOMEN OF GOOD FAITH EVERYWHERE SHOULD CELEBRATE THE SIGNING IN OSLO LAST WEEK OF A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUATEMALAN GOVERNMENT AND THE REBEL COALITION KNOWN AS THE GUATEMALAN NATIONAL REVOLUTIONARY UNITY. THE OSLO DOCUMENT SETS OUT PROCEDURES FOR ENDING HOSTILITIES AND DEMOBILIZING AND DISARMING THE REBEL FORCES. A FINAL PEACE AGREEMENT IS TO BE SIGNED DECEMBER 29TH IN OSLO, FOLLOWING WHICH A U-N VERIFICATION MISSION WILL BE DEPLOYED IN GUATEMALA AND THE PEACE TREATY WILL ENTER INTO FORCE. "

    TEXT: TURNING TO TROUBLED SERBIA, WHERE ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS HAVE CONTINUED FOR SOME THREE WEEKS, THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION WORRIES THAT VIOLENCE MAY BE INEVITABLE.

    VOICE: "IN YUGOSLAVIA THE WAR OF WILLS BETWEEN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC AND HIS POLITICAL FOES HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DANGEROUS. THE SUPREME COURT OF YUGOSLAVIA REJECTED AN APPEAL TO HONOR THE RESULTS OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS, MANY WON BY OPPONENTS OF [MR.] MILOSEVIC... THAT MAY PUSH EXTREMIST OPPONENTS OF MILOSEVIC OVER THE EDGE AND TURN WHAT HAS BEEN DAY AFTER DAY OF PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS INTO STREET MELEES... THE LONG-RANGE ANSWER TO BRINGING SERBIAN AGGRESSIVENESS UNDER CONTROL IS TO ENCOURAGE A STABLE ECONOMY AND AN ORDERLY TRANSITION TO REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT -- LURING BACK TO LEADERSHIP THE MANY EDUCATED SERBS WHO LEFT THEIR COUNTRY IN DESPAIR."

    TEXT: IT MAY BE HARD TO BELIEVE, BUT HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, THE NATION THAT INVENTED THE COMPUTER, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT'S COMPUTER OPERATIONS ARE SAID TO BE A SHAMBLES, WITH ANTIQUATED MACHINES THAT LOSE INFORMATION AND COST TAXPAYERS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. ALL THIS HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED IN A LOS ANGELES TIMES SERIES, WHICH TODAY INSPIRED AN EDITORIAL COMMENT ABOUT WHAT CAN BE DONE TO EASE THE PROBLEM.

    VOICE: "MYRIAD LEGAL AND REGULATORY OBSTACLES HAVE DONE EVERYTHING FROM DELAYING DELIVERY OF COMPUTERS FOR YEARS TO DICTATING THAT THE GOVERNMENT BUY THE CHEAPEST MODELS, REGARDLESS OF PERFORMANCE. HOWEVER, CONGRESS AND THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAVE ADOPTED A SERIES OF REASONABLE REFORMS AIMED AT CLEARING THESE OBSTACLES. MOST OF THE CHANGES FOCUS ON DECENTRALIZING THE FEDERAL DECISION-MAKING PROCESS, PERMITTING REGIONAL OFFICIALS TO ASSESS THEIR OWN COMPUTER NEEDS AND PROCURE THE EQUIPMENT... BUT AN ENLIGHTENED CENTRAL CONTROL ULTIMATELY SHOULD TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF THE REGIONAL AGENCIES AND DECIDE WHICH OF THEM USES TECHNOLOGY MOST EFFICIENTLY. THAT THEN BECOMES THE STANDARD."

    TEXT: CONCENING ANOTHER DOMESTIC ISSUE, THE OLYMPIC CENTENNIAL PARK BOMBING, THE F-B-I HAS TURNED TO THE PUBLIC FOR HELP, AFTER FINALLY DETERMINING THAT SECURITY GUARD RICHARD JEWELL WAS NOT THE BOMBER. THE BUREAU IS ASKING ANYONE WITH PHOTOGRAPHS OR OTHER INFORMATION ABOUT POSSIBLE SUSPECTS TO COME FORWARD. THAT DRAWS THIS COMMENT FROM THE LOS ANGELES TIMES.

    VOICE: "... WHY WASN'T THE PLEA MADE 116 DAYS EARLIER, AT THE TIME OF THE BOMBING? NOT ONLY HAS THE F-B-I MISSED AN OPPORTUNITY TO QUICKLY COLLECT VISUAL EVIDENCE FROM OLYMPIC GAMES VISITORS FROM AROUND THE GLOBE, THE TIMING OF THE CALL ALSO MAKES IT LESS LIKELY THAT PEOPLE WILL RECALL EXACTLY WHAT THEY MIGHT HAVE SEEN AND MORE LIKELY THAT ANY EVIDENCE HAS ALREADY BEEN DISCARDED... THE FACT IS THAT THE F-B-I INVESTIGATION ITSELF IS SUSPECT, AND NOW THE AGENCY IS FORCED TO PLAY CATCH-UP."

    TEXT: OVERSEAS ONCE AGAIN, THE NEW YORK POST IS NOT ENTIRELY HAPPY THAT IRAQI CRUDE OIL IS ONCE AGAIN FLOWING INTO THE WORLD MARKET, EVEN IF FOR HUMANITARIAN PURPOSES, AS DECLARED BY THE UNITED NATIONS.

    VOICE: "UNDER THE DEAL, THE UNITED NATIONS WILL 'MONITOR' BAGHDAD'S COMPLIANCE. CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT JUST LAST SUMMER U-N INSPECTORS IN IRAQ WERE HELD AT GUNPOINT, SOME SKEPTICISM IS APPROPRIATE... WE WISH THE WORLD BODY LUCK."

    TEXT: AND LASTLY, ON THE ISSUE OF EXPANDING NATO EASTWARD TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE FORMER WARSAW PACK NATIONS, NEWSDAY CALLS IT A "DANGEROUS" MOVE THAT WILL PLAY RIGHT INTO MOSCOW'S PARANOIA.

    VOICE: "RUSSIA'S INSECURITY IS FEEDING HARD-LINE NATIONALIST SENTIMENT AT A TIME WHEN THE GOVERNMENT IN MOSCOW IS GOING THROUGH A SENSITIVE TRANSITION. PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S HOLD ON POWER, GIVEN HIS PHYSICAL DEBILITATION, IS TENUOUS. AND, IF [MR.] YELTSIN WERE TO BE OUSTED AS A RESULT OF NATIONALIST TRUCULENCE ABOUT HIS PERCEIVED APPEASEMENT OF THE WEST, RUSSIANS MIGHT AS WELL KISS DEMOCRACY GOODBYE. TENSIONS BETWEEN MOSCOW AND THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE WOULD REVERT TO PRE-COLD WAR LEVELS. THAT WOULD BE AN UNACCEPTABLY HEAVY PRICE TO PAY FOR NATO'S EASTERN EXPANSION...."

    TEXT: ON THAT NOTE WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIALS FROM WEDNESDAY'S U-S PRESS.
    NEB/ANG/PCH
    11-Dec-96 11:41 AM EST (1641 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [02] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY PAUL FRANCUCH (LONDON)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-207365
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: STOCK PRICES ON MAJOR EXCHANGES IN WESTERN EUROPE WERE SHARPLY LOWER WEDNESDAY. INVESTORS TOOK CUES, IN PART, FROM THE FALLING PRICE OF SHARES ON WALL STREET. FOR MORE ON WEDNESDAY'S EUROPEAN MARKETS, HERE'S PAUL FRANCUCH IN LONDON.

    TEXT: DECLINES IN THE NEW YORK MARKET AND A FALL IN THE DOLLAR AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK WERE JUST SOME OF THE REASONS MARKET ANALYSTS CITED FOR SHARP DECLINES WEDNESDAY IN THE KEY INDEXES FOR FRANKFURT, LONDON AND PARIS.

    BOTH FACTORS WERE CITED IN THE NEARLY 50-POINT DROP IN THE GERMAN "DAX" INDEX. IN PARIS, DECLINES ON WALL STREET PROMPTED INVESTORS IN THE MAJOR STOCKS TRACKED BY THE "CAC" INDEX TO SELL. PARIS CLOSED DOWN JUST OVER 38 POINTS. HERE IN LONDON, RENEWED FEARS OF OVER-VALUED BLUE-CHIP STOCKS TRACKED BY THE DOW JONES INDEX IN NEW YORK MADE BRITISH INVESTORS JITTERY AND IN A MOOD TO SELL. THE KEY "FINANCIAL TIMES" INDEX OF 100 STOCKS CLOSED DOWN JUST OVER 53 POINTS FOR THE DAY. (SIGNED)
    NEB/PCF/CF
    11-Dec-96 1:42 PM EST (1842 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [03] GERMANY / BOSNIA (L) BY KYLE KING (BONN)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-207360
    CONTENT=
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT HAS APPROVED THE DEPLOYMENT OF THREE-THOUSAND TROOPS FOR THE NEW NATO-LED PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN BOSNIA. V-OA'S KYLE KING REPORTS FROM BONN IT WILL BE GERMANY'S FIRST FOREIGN DEPLOYMENT OF COMBAT TROOPS SINCE THE END OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR.

    TEXT: THE THREE-THOUSAND GERMAN SOLDIERS WILL BE PART OF THE SO-CALLED STABILIZATION FORCE THAT NATO IS CREATING TO REPLACE THE HEAVILY ARMED COMBAT TROOPS THAT HAVE BEEN IN BOSNIA FOR THE PAST YEAR.

    ALTHOUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND GERMAN TROOPS TOOK PART IN THE INITIAL NATO-LED PEACEKEEPING MISSION, MOST WERE MILITARY ENGINEERS AND MEDICS STATIONED IN NEARBY CROATIA. FEW SERVED IN BOSNIA ITSELF, FOR FEAR OF REVIVING THE BITTER MEMORIES OF NAZI ATROCITIES AGAINST THE SERBS IN WORLD WAR TWO.

    GERMAN COMMENTATORS SAY THE CABINET DECISION TO ALLOW INFANTRY TROOPS TO TAKE PART IN THE NEW NATO-LED MISSION REFLECTS THE COUNTRY'S GROWING ROLE IN WORLD AFFAIRS. SOME EXPERTS SAY IT ALSO SHOWS THAT GERMANY HAS FINALLY SHED ITS POST WAR FEAR OF USING MILITARY FORCES ABROAD.

    THE GERMAN PARLIAMENT WILL HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE TROOPS. BUT CHANCELLOR (HELMUT) KOHL'S COALITION ENJOYS A COMFORTABLE MAJORITY AND NO MAJOR OPPOSITION IS EXPECTED. EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENVIRONMENTALIST GREENS PARTY HAVE ADVOCATED SENDING OF GERMAN TROOPS ON THE NATO MISSION TO ENSURE PEACE IN MAINTAINED IN THE WAR RAVAGED REGION. (SIGNED)
    NEB/KBK/JWH/CF
    11-Dec-96 11:45 AM EST (1645 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [04] NATO / RUSSIA (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-207350
    CONTENT=_
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: NATO WILL IDENTIFY NEW MEMBERS FROM CENTRAL EUROPE AT A SUMMIT MEETING NEXT JULY IN MADRID. THE WESTERN ALLIANCE HOPES TO DEVELOP A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA AT THE SAME TIME. RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM BRUSSELS, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER EVGENY PRIMAKOV GAVE NATO A MIXED RESPONSE.

    TEXT: RUSSIA HAS AGREED TO OPEN A DIALOGUE WITH NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JAVIER SOLANA TO SEE IF THEY CAN FASHION A NEW RELATIONSHIP -- OR EVEN A CHARTER -- BY THE TIME OF THE NATO SUMMIT MEETING NEXT JULY.

    FOREIGN MINISTER PRIMAKOV TOLD THE 16 FOREIGN MINISTERS HE WANTS TO KNOW HOW NATO PLANS TO TRANSFORM ITSELF AND HE DOES NOT EXCLUDE REACHING A FORMAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ALLIANCE ON SUCH THINGS AS PEACEKEEPING AND TRAINING.

    AT THE SAME TIME, MR. PRIMAKOV SAYS NATO SHOULD NOT TAKE THE PLACE OF THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE THAT GROUPS ALL THE COUNTRIES OF EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA. AS FOR NATO'S PLAN TO ADD ONE OR MORE NEW MEMBERS FROM RUSSIA'S FORMER ALLIES, MR. PRIMAKOV TOLD THE MINISTERS HE'S DISAPPOINTED. AS MR. PRIMAKOV TOLD REPORTERS THROUGH AN INTERPRETER, RUSSIA'S VIEW OF NATO EXPANSION HAS NOT CHANGED.

    ///PRIMAKOV RUSSIAN ACT W/ INTERPRETER///

    WHILE AGREEING TO CONTINUE THESE CONSULTATIONS, WE CONTINUE TO BE AGAINST NATO ENLARGEMENT AND THIS POSITION IS NOT SIMPLY THE VIEW OF THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT, IT IS NOT SIMPLY SUBJECTIVE POSITION. THIS IS BASED ON THE FIRM BELIEF THAT ENLARGEMENT OF NATO WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO A NEW DIVISION OF EUROPE. THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE FROM A STRATEGIC, FROM A MILITARY, FROM ANY POINT OF VIEW.

    ///END ACT///

    THE RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TOLD HIS 16 COUNTERPARTS, A NEW DIVISION OF EUROPE MAY NOT BE THE INTENTION OF NATO EXPANSION BUT HE PREDICTS IT WILL BE THE CONSEQUENCE. SECRETARY OF STATE WARREN CHRISTOPHER SAYS THERE'S NO NEED TO HAVE NATO ENLARGEMENT DIVIDE EUROPE.

    ///CHRISTOPHER ACT///

    ON THE CONTRARY, ENLARGEMENT CAN LEAD TO THE FULL INTEGRATION OF EUROPE. IF A CHARTER CAN BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO, THAT WILL COMPLETE THE INTEGRATION OF EUROPE. SO WE'RE STARTED DOWN THE ROAD OF A UNIFIED, INTEGRATED EUROPE WHICH OF COURSE HAS BEEN PRESIDENT CLINTON'S DREAM AND I THINK THAT OVER TIME, THE RUSSIAN FEARS CAN BE DISSOLVED AS WE GO INTO THESE INTENSIVE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THEM FOR A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO.

    ///END ACT///

    MR. PRIMAKOV WAS PLEASED BY NATO'S PLEDGE NOT TO STATION NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON THE TERRITORY OF ANY NEW MEMBER BUT HE STILL OPPOSES THE MOVEMENT OF WHAT HE CALLS, NATO'S MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE CLOSER TO RUSSIA'S BORDER.

    WHILE NATO HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED THE COUNTRIES TO BE INVITED NEXT JULY, POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC ARE MOST COMMONLY THOUGHT TO MEET THE QUALIFICATIONS OF CIVILIAN CONTROL OF THE MILITARY AND DEMOCRATIC, FREE MARKET GOVERNMENTS.

    AN AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA IS THE GOAL BUT NATO DOES NOT LINK EXPANSION TO ANYTHING ELSE. OFFICIALS HERE SAY NEW MEMBERS WILL BE INVITED IN JULY, INDEPENDENT OF THE PROGRESS OF TALKS WITH RUSSIA. (SIGNED)
    NEB/RP/KL
    11-Dec-96 8:42 AM EST (1342 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [05] SERBIA PROTESTS (L) BY BARRY WOOD (BELGRADE)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
    NUMBER=2-207367
    CONTENT=_
    VOICED AT:

    INTRO: ANOTHER 100-THOUSAND PROTESTERS MARCHED THROUGH THE STREETS OF BELGRADE WEDNESDAY, KEEPING UP THE PRESSURE ON SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD REPORTS INDEPENDENT TRADE UNIONS PLEDGED TO JOIN THE PROTEST AND SOME PARTICIPATED.

    TEXT: WEDNESDAY'S MARCHES AND RALLY WERE BIGGER THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE "ZAJEDNO" OR "TOGETHER" OPPOSITION MOVEMENT'S MARCH ALSO PLACED A SMALL GROUP OF AGED PARTISAN FIGHTERS FROM THE SECOND WORLD WAR AT THE FRONT OF THEIR PROCESSION. THEY WERE PRECEDED BY A LONE WOMAN IN NATIONAL COSTUME BEARING THE SYMBOLIC GIFT OF BREAD.

    EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, A LARGER THAN USUAL THRONG OF STUDENTS FROM BELGRADE'S UNIVERSITY CAMPUSES MOVED THROUGH THE STREETS. THEY WAVED COPIES OF YUGOSLAVIA'S CONSTITUTION IN THE AIR TO SYMBOLIZE THEIR BELIEF THAT THE RULE OF LAW IN SERBIA HAS BEEN ELIMINATED.

    THE STUDENTS, LIKE THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION, DEMAND THAT OVERTURNED LOCAL ELECTION VICTORIES BY THE OPPOSITION BE REINSTATED.

    A SMALL GROUP OF WORKERS DID MARCH ALONG WITH THE STUDENTS BUT NO MORE THAN 100. INDEPENDENT TRADE UNIONS HAVE PLEDGED STRIKE ACTION TO SUPPORT THE DEMONSTRATIONS, BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE STRIKE ACTION AND VERY LIMITED PARTICIPATION OF WORKERS IN THE BELGRADE STREET DEMONSTRATIONS. MOST SERBIAN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES OPERATE ONLY SPORADICALLY, WITH WAGES BEING PAID IRREGULARLY.

    THE THREE-PARTY "ZAJEDNO" MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO DISPLAY UNITY AND PLEDGES TO KEEP UP THE DEMONSTRATIONS UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT MAKES CONCESSIONS. SO FAR -- DESPITE MOUNTING PRESSURE FROM WESTERN GOVERNMENTS -- PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC HAS BEEN UNYIELDING. HIS ONLY CONCESSION THUS FAR HAS BEEN TO PERMIT TWO INDEPENDENT RADIO STATIONS IN THE CAPITAL TO RESUME BROADCASTING AFTER BEING OFF THE AIR FOR TWO DAYS LAST WEEK. SOME OBSERVERS SAY THE RECLUSIVE SERBIAN LEADER IS WAITING TO SEE IF THE PROTESTS LOSE MOMENTUM. (SIGNED)
    NEB/BDW/PCF/CF
    11-Dec-96 2:17 PM EST (1917 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [06] SERBIAN DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
    NUMBER=6-09925
    TELEPHONE=619-3335
    EDITOR=NEAL LAVON
    CONTENT=_

    INTRO: DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC CONTINUE TO FILL THE STREETS OF BELGRADE AS THE PROTESTS NEAR THE END OF THEIR FIRST MONTH. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SUPPORT FOR THE PROTESTERS IN THE U-S PRESS AND NOW THERE ARE MEDIA SUGGESTIONS THAT THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO STRENGTHEN ITS SUPPORT OF THE MARCHERS.

    WE GET A SAMPLING NOW FROM ___________________ IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.

    TEXT: THE DEMONSTRATIONS BEGAN MORE THAN THREE WEEKS AGO AFTER MR. MILOSEVIC SAID HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE THE RESULTS OF SEVERAL LOCAL ELECTIONS HELD NOVEMBER 17TH IN WHICH HIS PARTY LOST BADLY. AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT, SPONTANEOUS DEMONSTRATIONS FILLED THE PUBLIC SQUARES OF BELGRADE. THEY HAVE CONTINUED, GAINING FORCE THIS WEEK AFTER NEWS THE COUNTRY'S SUPREME COURT HAD REAFFIRMED THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION NOT TO RECOGNIZE THE ELECTION RETURNS.

    MOST U-S PAPERS HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEMONSTRATORS FROM THE VERY BEGINNING, ALTHOUGH THE U-S GOVERNMENT WAS SLOW TO COMMENT. MANY OBSERVERS BELIEVE THE WHITE HOUSE IS CONCERNED THAT IF MR. MILOSEVIC FALLS, HE COULD TAKE THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS FOR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA DOWN WITH HIM.

    FOR THE LATEST REACTION, WE START IN THE MIDWEST, WITH THE CLEVELAND, OHIO PLAIN DEALER, WHICH FAULTS THE PRESIDENT FOR NOT TAKING A STRONGER STAND EARLIER.

    VOICE: "IT WOULD BE GRATIFYING TO THINK THAT SOME OF HIS [MILOSEVIC'S] PERCEIVED CONSTERNATION HAD RESULTED FROM BLISTERING CRITICISM FROM THE OVAL OFFICE. UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON HAS NOT EXPRESSED HIMSELF AS FORCEFULLY AS MANY AMERICANS WOULD LIKE ON THE ISSUE, LEADING SOME TO SUSPECT HE IS HESITANT TO DO SO BECAUSE HE NEEDS [MR.] MILOSEVIC'S COMPLIANCE TO ENFORCE THE BOSNIAN PEACE DEAL REACHED LAST YEAR IN DAYTON. BUT RECENT ADMINISTRATION STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN MORE POINTED, URGING [MR.] MILOSEVIC TO GO BEYOND LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON RADIO STATIONS AND TO OPEN TALKS WITH OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES. ..... [MR.] MILOSEVIC NEEDS TO BE LEFT IN NO DOUBT THAT SHOULD HE RESORT TO FORCE AGAINST HIS POLITICAL OPPONENTS, HE WILL RISK DESTROYING WHATEVER ADVANTAGES HE BELIEVES HE SECURED IN DAYTON."

    TEXT: STILL IN THE REGION, THE ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH WONDERS ALOUD WHETHER WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE STREETS OF BELGRADE THESE PAST FEW WEEKS IS "EASTERN EUROPE'S LAST REVOLUTION?"

    VOICE: "THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS HAD TWO PURPOSES: TO END THE FIGHTING IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA AND TO BEGIN BUILDING DEMOCRACY IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. THE TWO ARE, OF COURSE, INTIMATELY CONNECTED; THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IS ESSENTIAL TO ENSURING A LASTING PEACE. DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IS, THOUGH, A REAL PROBLEM FOR DICTATORIAL RULERS, AS SERBIAN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC IS DISCOVERING. ..... FOR THREE WEEKS, DEMONSTRATORS, MOSTLY STUDENTS AND PROFESSIONALS, HAVE MARCHED DAILY TO PROTEST MR. MILOSEVIC'S REJECTION OF LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS. ..... UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FLAGRANT INJUSTICE HAS BEEN MATCHED BY AN EQUALLY DETESTABLE TRAVESTY: THE ARRESTS OF THE LEADERS OF THE ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS. ..... CLEARLY, MR. MILOSEVIC HAS CHOSEN TO ESCALATE THE CRISIS. THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES NOW HAVE TO TRY TO DEFUSE IT."

    TEXT: IN THE SOUTHERN STATE OF GEORGIA, THE ATLANTA CONSTITUTION WORRIES THAT, AT THIS POINT IN THE PROTESTS, VIOLENCE MAY BE INEVITABLE.

    VOICE: "IN YUGOSLAVIA THE WAR OF WILLS BETWEEN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC AND HIS POLITICAL FOES HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DANGEROUS. THE SUPREME COURT OF YUGOSLAVIA REJECTED AN APPEAL TO HONOR THE RESULTS OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS, MANY WON BY OPPONENTS OF [MR.] MILOSEVIC... THAT MAY PUSH EXTREMIST OPPONENTS OF MILOSEVIC OVER THE EDGE AND TURN WHAT HAS BEEN DAY AFTER DAY OF PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS INTO STREET MELEES... THE LONG-RANGE ANSWER TO BRINGING SERBIAN AGGRESSIVENESS UNDER CONTROL IS TO ENCOURAGE A STABLE ECONOMY AND AN ORDERLY TRANSITION TO REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT -- LURING BACK TO LEADERSHIP THE MANY EDUCATED SERBS WHO LEFT THEIR COUNTRY IN DESPAIR."

    TEXT: THE BALTIMORE SUN, WHILE SUPPORTING THE QUEST TOWARD REAL DEMOCRACY, WONDERS JUST WHO THESE PROTESTERS ARE, AND WHAT KIND OF GOVERNMENT THEY WOULD PROVIDE IN THE EVENT MR. MILOSEVIC SHOULD STEP DOWN.

    VOICE: "THE PROTESTERS .... ARE A STRANGE ARRAY OF HAWKS AND DOVES. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE PEACE IN BOSNIA SHOULD THE MILOSEVIC REGIME FALL IS ANYONE'S GUESS. SINCE THAT PEACE IS A U-S DIPLOMATIC ACHIEVEMENT, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS HAD AN UNCOMFORTABLE STAKE IN MR. MILOSEVIC'S CONTINUING RULE, NO MATTER THAT HE IS A FORMER COMMUNIST BOSS. .... WHATEVER HAPPENS, THE U-S HAS LITTLE CHOICE, IF IT BE TRUE TO ITSELF, BUT TO SUPPORT DEMOCRACY. EVEN WHEN THAT MEANS TAKING A CHANCE."

    TEXT: AND LASTLY, FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE SAYS THAT NO MATTER WHO THEY ARE, THE PAPER THINKS THE PROTESTERS WANT "SOMETHING BETTER THAN MILOSEVIC" AND ADDS, THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THAT GOAL.

    VOICE: "AT THIS CRITICAL JUNCTURE, IT'S VITAL THAT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION AND THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY ENLIST IN THE CAUSE OF DEMOCRACY FOR SERBIA. TO THIS END, THEY SHOULD BE EXERTING ALL AVAILABLE PRESSURE TO FORESTALL A VIOLENT CRACKDOWN ON THE PROTESTS BY MILOSEVIC, AND HIS DISCREDITED REGIME. SERBIA'S AUTOCRAT SHOULD BE TOLD BLUNTLY THAT ANY RESORT TO FORCE AGAINST THE BURGEONING PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT WOULD BE MET WITH RENEWED ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. EUROPEAN LEADERS SHOULD BE TELLING MILOSEVIC THAT SERBIA'S PROSPECTS FOR JOINING THE E-C DEPEND ON POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS - - NAMELY, FREE ELECTIONS, DULY RESPECTED, AND TRANSITION TO THE MARKET ECONOMY THAT IS SERBIA'S ONLY HOPE FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY. .... THE MESSAGE THESE SERBS [THE DEMONSTRATORS] ARE TRYING TO SEND IS THE RIGHT ONE FOR SERBIA AND THE BATTERED BALKANS: SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC REPRESENTS A FAILED PAST, NOT THE BETTER FUTURE THAT PROMISES PEACE, PROSPERITY AND AN END TO SERBIA'S PARIAH STATUS."

    TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF U-S EDITORIALS OPINIONS ON THE STREET DEMONSTRATIONS IN SERBIA.
    NEB/ANG/NL
    11-Dec-96 1:05 PM EST (1805 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


    [07] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

    DATE=12/11/96
    TYPE=CLOSEUP (W/CORRECTION)
    NUMBER=4-09510
    TELEPHONE=619-3464
    EDITOR=PHIL HAYNES
    CONTENT= (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES)
    // ED'S NOTE: RE-ISSUING TO DELETE LAST SENTENCE OF FIRST GRAF OF TEXT DUE TO LATE DEVELOPMENTS. //

    INTRO: FOR MORE THAN THREE WEEKS, TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SERBIAN DEMOSTRATORS HAVE TURNED OUT ON THE STREETS OF BELGRADE AND NIS [NISH] TO PROTEST THE DICTATORIAL GOVERNMENT OF PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. THE TENSION IN BELGRADE WAS HEIGHTENED SUNDAY [12/8] WHEN THE SERBIAN SUPREME COURT ENDORSED THE ANNULMENT OF LOCAL ELECTIONS THAT HAD GIVEN CONTROL OF THE CAPITAL TO THE OPPOSITION, KNOWN COLLECTIVELY AS "ZAJEDNO" [ZY-YED-NOH] -- THE SERBIAN WORD FOR "TOGETHER." VOA'S JUDITH LATHAM TALKED WITH BALKAN AREA SPECIALISTS IN THE UNITED STATES ABOUT THE OPPOSITION COALITION IN SERBIA, THEIR GOALS, AND THEIR DIVISIONS. HERE IS ____________ WITH THE STORY.

    TEXT: "ZAJEDNO," THE POLITICAL GROUPING OPPOSING PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC, LINKS FIVE GROUPS REPRESENTING A DISPARATE BAND OF DISENCHANTED AND VOCAL STUDENTS, MEMBERS OF SERBIA'S ONCE-PROSPEROUS URBAN MIDDLE CLASS, AND INDIVIDUAL WORKERS.

    THE COALITION IS COMPOSED OF THE SERBIAN RENEWAL MOVEMENT LED BY THE CHARISMATIC VUK DRASKOVIC [VOOK DRASH-KOH-VICH], THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY LED BY THE PRAGMATIC ZORAN DJINDJIC [ZOR-AHN JIN-JICH], THE CITIZEN'S ALLIANCE OF SERBIA LED BY THE INTELLECTUAL ANTI-WAR ACTIVIST VESNA PESIC [VES-NAH PEH-SHICH], AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF SERBIA LED BY THE MORE CAUTIOUS INTELLECTUAL VOJISLAV KOSTUNICA [VOY-I-SLAHV KOSH-TOO-NIT-ZAH]. THE OPPOSITION ALSO INCLUDES THE SERBIAN RADICAL PARTY OF VOJISLAV SESELJ [VOY-I-SLAHV SHESH-EL]. ALL OPPOSE PRESIDENT MILOSOVIC, WHO IS WIDELY REGARDED AS HAVING PLUNGED SERBIA INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS. FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO YUGOSLAVIA WARREN ZIMMERMAN CALLS SERBIA THE "LAST COMMUNIST DICTATORSHIP IN EASTERN EUROPE."

    TAPE: CUT ONE -- ZIMMERMAN (0:18) "I THINK THE DEMONSTRATIONS THAT ARE TAKING PLACE IN SERBIA, WHICH SEEM TO ME THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WHICH MILOSEVIC HAS EVER FACED AS SERBIA'S LEADER, EVER SINCE HE GOT IN IN 1987, ARE SHOWING THAT HE HAS LOST TO A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE THE SUPPORT OF THE SERBIAN PEOPLE."

    TEXT: ACCORDING TO AMBASSADOR ZIMMERMAN, WESTERN GOVERNMENTS WHO UNTIL RECENTLY BELIEVED THAT MR. MILOSEVIC WAS INDISPENSIBLE TO THE SUCCESS OF THE BOSNIA PEACE AGREEMENT SIGNED IN DAYTON, ARE RECONSIDERING THIS VIEW.

    TAPE: CUT TWO -- ZIMMERMAN (0:47) "I THINK THAT WAS AN ENORMOUS MISCONCEPTION IN THE FIRST PLACE. I DON'T THINK MILOSEVIC HAS FOLLOWED THROUGH ON HIS COMMITMENTS TO THE DAYTON AGREEMENT. FOR EXAMPLE, HE HAS DONE NOTHING TO WEAKEN THE POSITION OF [BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS RADOVAN] KARADZIC AND [RATKO] MLADIC. AND SECONDLY, I THINK THE OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC -- THESE ARE PEOPLE WHOM I KNEW QUITE WELL WHEN I WAS AMBASSADOR IN YUGOSLAVIA IN THE EARLY '90'S -- IS AN OPPOSITION WHICH CERTAINLY WOULD NOT OVERTHROW THE DAYTON ACCORD. IF THEY GET INTO POWER, THEY WOULD BE EXTREMELY ANXIOUS TO WIN SUPPORT FROM THE WEST. I THINK THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAS A LONG RECORD OF SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY IN EASTERN EUROPE, OUGHT TO BE IN THE FOREFRONT OF THOSE WHO ARE PREPARED TO TAKE STRONG STEPS, INCLUDING SANCTIONS AGAINST MILOSEVIC."

    TEXT: MANY BALKAN ANALYSTS, WHILE CRITICAL OF THE SERBIAN PRESIDENT, ARE NONETHELESS SKEPTICAL ABOUT MEMBERS OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT "ZAJEDNO." PROFESSOR MICHAEL ROSKIN, A FORMER JOURNALIST AND FOREIGN SERVICE OFFICER WHO TAUGHT AT THE U-S ARMY WAR COLLEGE IN THE EARLY 1990'S, SAYS HE QUESTIONS HOW DEMOCRATIC THE OPPOSITION IS.

    TAPE: CUT THREE -- ROSKIN (0:22) "EVEN THE OPPOSITION IS STRONGLY SERBIAN NATIONALIST. THE SERBS ARE INTO A SENTIMENTAL CRYING JAG NOW AND ARE PERFECTLY CAPABLE OF PORTRAYING THEMSELVES, SEEING THEMSELVES, AS THE DOWNTRODDEN VICTIMS OF HISTORY. THIS IS OF COURSE WHAT MILOSEVIC HAS WORKED ON FOR YEARS. AND IT IS SHARED BY WIDE SECTORS OF THE SERBIAN POPULATION, INCLUDING MANY OF THE OPPOSITION."

    TEXT: AND JUST HOW "TOGETHER" IS "ZAJEDNO"? AGAIN, PROFESSOR ROSKIN:

    TAPE: CUT FOUR -- ROSKIN (0:35) "IT'S A VERY LOOSE AND RATHER RECENTLY FORMED CATCH-ALL, SPANNING A TREMENDOUS VARIETY OF INTERESTS, AND MOST IMPORTANT, INCLUDING SOME VERY STRONG NATIONALISTS, WHOSE VIEWS ON PROTECTING AND GATHERING IN THE SERBS OF BOSNIA AND COVERING THE SERBIAN TRADITIONAL CLAIM ON KOSOVO REALLY IS NOT ANY DIFFERENT FROM MILOSEVIC. IT INCLUDES NATIONALISTS, IT INCLUDES CLASSIC WESTERN LIBERALS, IT INCLUDES SOCIAL DEMOCRATS. I THINK THE ONLY THING HOLDING IT TOGETHER IS OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC AND HIS CONTINUATION OF THE COMMUNIST REGIME."

    TEXT: MICHAEL ROSKIN DESCRIBES SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC AS A DICTATOR WHO "JUST SIMPLY WANTS TO KEEP HIMSELF AND HIS FRIENDS IN POWER," WHICH, HE ADDS, HAS BEEN "HIS GAME FROM THE BEGINNING." PROFESSOR ROSKIN IS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE LONG-TERM SUCCESS OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT.

    TAPE: CUT FIVE -- ROSKIN (0:19) "I THINK THEY'LL MAKE IT. I THINK THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IS SO DESPARATE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAGE BUILDING UP AGAINST MILOSEVIC IS SO BIG NOW, ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGH COURT RULING IN HIS FAVOR ON ANNULLING LOCAL ELECTIONS, THAT THIS THING WILL NOT END WITH HIM STILL IN POWER."

    TEXT: BUT, WHAT ABOUT THE INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS OF "ZAJEDNO"? ACCORDING TO OBRAD KESIC [OH-BRAD KES-ICH] OF THE INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH AND EXCHANGES BOARD IN WASHINGTON, D-C, THE MOST POWERFUL OPPOSITION FIGURE IS VUK DRASKOVIC, LEADER OF THE SERBIAN RENEWAL MOVEMENT.

    TAPE: CUT SIX -- KESIC (0:58) "HE BEGAN IN 1991 AS ONE OF THE MOST VOCAL SERBIAN NATIONALISTS. THEN BY 1994, HE HAD MADE A COMPLETE TURNAROUND, HAD COME OUT VERY MUCH AGAINST THE WAR IN BOSNIA, HAD CONDEMNED IT, AND HAD BECOME ONE OF THE LEADING ANTI-WAR VOICES IN BELGRADE. IN BETWEEN, HE MADE A SERIES OF POLICY CHANGES, AND AS A RESULT IT COST HIM A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SUPPORT. SO THESE LATEST DEMONSTRATIONS HAVE BROUGHT NEW LIFE TO DRASKOVIC AND TO THE SERBIAN RENEWAL MOVEMENT. IT'S JUST A QUESTION NOW OF SEEING HOW WELL HE CAN WORK WITH THE OTHER OPPOSITION LEADERS BECAUSE THERE'S BEEN A HISTORY OF ANTAGONISM AND PERSONAL RIVALRY BETWEEN DRASKOVIC AND THE OTHER LEADERS. (OPT) IF YOU WERE TO DESCRIBE HIS SUPPORTER, YOU WOULD SAY IT'S A BLUE COLLAR WORKER, SOMEONE WHO PERHAPS IS RELIGIOUS, SOMEONE WHO IS PATRIOTIC, SOMEONE WHO'S PROUD OF THE COUNTRY, AND SOMEONE WHO FOR THAT PARTICULAR PERSON, PERHAPS DRASKOVIC HOLDS A SPECIAL PLACE AS AN ESTABLISHED WRITER, A LITERARY FIGURE. (END OPT)

    TEXT: THE OTHER MAJOR OPPOSITION LEADER, ACCORDING TO OBRAD KESIC, IS ZORAN DJINDJIC, LEADER OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, WHO LIKE VUK DRASKOVIC IS VERY HARD TO READ BECAUSE HIS POLICIES HAVE FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE YEARS.

    TAPE: CUT SEVEN -- KESIC (0:45) "AND FOR MANY PEOPLE THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN CRITICISM OF THE OPPOSITION. DJINDJIC HAS SHOWN THAT HE CAN BE PRAGMATIC -- NOT ONLY BY JOINING THIS COALISTION BUT ALSO EARLIER IN COOPERATING WITH SOME UNLIKE PARTNERS, SUCH AS VOJISLAV SESLJ, THE LEADER OF THE SERBIAN RADICAL MOVEMENT. HE'S ALSO REACHED OUT TO LEFTIST POLITICAL PARTIES. (OPT) HIS BASE OF SUPPORT IS VERY SIMILAR TO DRASKOVIC'S, ALTHOUGH IT'S TENDS TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE INTELLECTUAL, A LITTLE BETTER EDUCATED. HE HAS PROBABLY BENEFITTED THE MOST FROM WHAT HAPPENING THROUGHOUT SERBIA. HE DEFINITELY LEANS TOWARDS A WESTERN-STYLE LIBERALISM, BUT THAT'S ALSO FAIR TO SAY ABOUT MOST OF THE OPPOSITION LEADERS, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SESELJ. HE HAS ALSO USED THE NATIONAL CARD, AND THIS WAY HE'S CREATED SOME APPREHENSION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MINDS HERE IN WASHINGTON." (END OPT)

    TEXT: MR. KESIC SAYS THAT, UNLESS PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC MAKES MAJOR CONCESSIONS TO THE SERBIAN OPPOSITION, THE DEMONSTRATIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GAIN SUPPORT.

    TAPE: CUT EIGHT -- KESIC (0:46) "I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN CALCULATE HOW LONG HE HAS, BUT I THINK THAT THE CORNER HAS DEFINITELY BEEN TURNED. WE'VE SEEN THAT MILOSEVIC IS NOT INVULNERABLE. WE'VE SEEN WITH THESE DEMONSTRATIONS THAT HE DOES NOT ENJOY UNWAVERING SUPPORT THROUGHOUT SERBIA. AND, MORE IMPORTANT, THERE ARE DEEP CRACKS WITHIN THE FOUNDATIONS WHICH HAVE KEPT HIM AT THE HELM OF SERBIA. (OPT) AND THESE ARE THINGS WHICH HE CANNOT PATCH UP VERY EASILY, SUCH AS THE FRAGMENTATION OF HIS OWN PARTY, SUCH AS THE GROWING RIFT BETWEEN HIS LEADERSHIP AND THE MONTENEGRIN LEADERSHIP WITHIN THE FEDERATION, SUCH AS THE GROWING DISSATISFACTION WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY WITH THE ALLIANCE HE'S CREATED WITH HIS WIFE'S PARTY, THE UNITED LEFT OF YUGOSLAVIA. (END OPT) AND SO, ALL OF THIS TO ME SPELLS THE END, BUT I'M NOT QUITE SURE WHEN IT'S COMING."

    TEXT: THE ISSUE AS TO WHETHER PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC WILL CHOOSE TO USE OVERWHELMING FORCE AGAINST THE NOW-PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATORS OR WILL TRY TO REACH SOME SORT OF ACCOMMODATION WITH THEM IS SOMETHING BALKAN ANALYSTS ARE PONDERING. FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR WARREN ZIMMERMAN SAYS HE'S CONCERNED ABOUT A VIOLENT OUTCOME.

    TAPE: CUT NINE -- ZIMMERMAN (0:43) "I THINK THERE'S A REAL DANGER THAT MILOSEVIC REALLY WILL TURN TO THE USE OF FORCE. HE REALLY HAS TWO OPTIONS -- ONE OF WHICH IS TO MAKE SOME KIND OF COMPROMISE WITH THE DEMONSTRATORS -- A COMPROMISE WHICH ON HIS PREVIOUS RECORD HE WOULD CERTAINLY TRY TO VIOLATE AS SOON AS HE COULD. AND THE OTHER OPTION IS TO USE FORCE. WE KNOW HE HAS AN ENORMOUS POLICE FORCE, LARGER THAN THE ARMIES OF SOME EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. HE HAS AN OVERWHELMING PREPONDERANCE OF POWER OVER THE DEMONSTRATORS. BUT, EVEN IF HE WINS THIS ROUND, HE WILL BE WEAKER. AND, IF THERE'S A SECOND ROUND, AS I'M SURE THERE WILL BE, OR A THIRD ROUND, HE WILL, I THINK, RISK THE FATE OF, FOR EXAMPLE, [NICHOLAE] CEAUCESCU [OF ROMANIA], WHO WAS PREPARED TO USE FORCE."

    TEXT: AS THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT "ZAJEDNO" CONTINUES THE DAILY STREET DEMONSTRATIONS AGAINST PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC, THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN SERBIA GROWS MORE TENSE -- AND UNPREDICTABLE.
    NEB/JL/PCH NOTE: ZIMMERMAN ACTUALITIES COURTESY OF DRAGANA MILIC.
    11-Dec-96 4:06 PM EST (2106 UTC)
    NNNN
    Source: Voice of America


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