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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 204, 98-10-21Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 204, 21 October 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SEES NO NEED FOR STATE OF EMERGENCYSpeaking on Georgian Television on 20 October, Eduard Shevardnadze said he will not impose a state of emergency because the mutiny by Georgian army units in western Georgia is over. A spokesman for the Georgian Defense Ministry told Caucasus Press that 80 percent of the servicemen who participated have returned to their barracks, and that their leader, Akaki Eliava, is on the run with several dozen supporters. The Georgian prosecutor-general has opened a criminal case against Eliava on charges of treason, which could carry a life sentence. Shevardnadze again named former Georgian deputy parliament speaker Nemo Burchuladze as a co- instigator of the revolt, but Security Minister Djemal Gakhokidze, who was temporarily held hostage by Eliava's men on 19 October, said he did not see Burchuladze with Eliava. LF[02] ELIAVA IN ABKHAZIA?Georgian parliament speaker Zurab Zhvania told Caucasus Press on 20 October that Eliava and his men left the west Georgian region of Mingrelia to join forces with other "illegal armed detachments" in Abkhazia's Gali raion. The chairman of the Abkhaz parliament in exile, Tamaz Nadareishvili, told the daily newspaper "Rezonansi" that Eliava, a former supporter of deceased president Zviad Gamsakhurdia, is a member of an elite Abkhaz security unit. LF[03] GAMSAKHURDIA SUPPORTERS ROUNDED UP IN GEORGIASeveral known Gamsakhurdia supporters, including Giorgi Kervalishvili, the president of the Human Rights Protection Organization, were arrested in Tbilisi in connection with the failed insurrection, Caucasus Press reported on 20 October, citing "Rezonansi." LF[04] GEORGIAN PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION RESUMESThe Azerbaijan International Operating Company has resumed reconstruction of the export oil pipeline from Baku to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa, Interfax reported on 20 October. Work was suspended for security reasons the previous day when news of the Eliava mutiny became known. LF[05] ARMENIAN, KARABAKH PRESIDENTS MEETRobert Kocharian and Arkadii Ghukasian met in Yerevan on 20 October for " a routine exchange of information," primarily on economic issues, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Ghukasian told journalists later that he and Kocharian also discussed the Karabakh conflict and that they agreed that its solution should include the granting of "non- conventional" status to the unrecognized Nagorno- Karabakh Republic. That status will fall short of full independence, Ghukasian said. He added that he can see "no reasons" for a resumption of hostilities with Azerbaijan, according to Interfax. LF[06] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT TO BOYCOTT COUNCIL OF EUROPE TALKS ON KARABAKH?Ghukasian told journalists on 20 October that he has accepted an invitation to attend hearings on Karabakh organized by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg in early November, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 October 1998). The foreign ministers and parliament speakers of Armenia and Azerbaijan are also invited to those talks. But the Azerbaijani parliament has refused to send a delegation to the talks if Ghukasian is present, Turan reported on 20 October. LF[07] AFTERMATH OF AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSEleven opposition lawmakers on 20 October proposed that the parliament debate violations of the election law during the presidential election campaign and vote count, Turan reported. Parliamentary speaker Murtuz Alesqerov suggested that the issue be discussed by one of the parliament's committees. Meanwhile, the leaders of the several dozen organizations aligned in the Movement for Electoral Reform and Democratic Elections initialed a document entitled "Charter 98" condemning the falsification of the election. The signatories pledged to launch a peaceful campaign for the ouster by legal means of Heidar Aliev, whom they do not recognize as the legitimate president. Also on 20 October, a Baku district court sentenced six supporters of defeated presidential candidate Etibar Mamedov to three to five days in prison for jeering and whistling at Aliev when he arrived at Baku's Palace Hotel on 18 October for his inauguration ceremony. LF[08] KAZAKH PRESIDENT TO RUN IN JANUARY ELECTIONSNursultan Nazarbayev announced on 20 October that he will run in the January presidential elections, Russian and Kazakh media reported. Early elections were announced on 8 October. At the time, numerous reports claimed Nazarbayev was "undecided" about running in the elections. Interfax quotes the president as saying his decision to run was made after receiving telegrams "from about a million Kazakh citizens" requesting he take part in the elections. BP[09] NO OPPOSITION CANDIDATES REGISTER TO DATE...The head of Kazakh Central Electoral Commission, Zagipa Baliyeva, said that as of 19 October, no one has requested the necessary forms for registering as a candidate, Interfax reported. Potential candidates have until 10 November to be nominated. They then have until 30 November to collect 161, 000 signatures, pay an election registration fee of nearly 2.5 million tenge (about $30,000) from their own funds, produce a mental health certificate, and pass a Kazakh language test. Nazarbayev passed his language proficiency test the same day he announced his candidacy. BP[10] ...WHILE ONE POTENTIAL CANDIDATE APPEARS OUT OF RACE ALREADYA Kazakh court on 20 October found former Kazakh Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin guilty in absentia for participating in "mass gatherings and sessions of an unregistered organization," RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. Kazhegeldin left Kazakhstan after the alleged assassination attempt against him on 13 October. The next day, he announced his intention to run for the presidency. Under a recently passed Kazakh law, Kazhegeldin will be unable to run in the presidential elections following his conviction of a crime. BP[11] TURKMEN TV CHIEF SACKED, RUSSIAN BROADCASTS SHORTENEDTurkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov on 20 October fired Klychmurad Kakabayev, head of Turkmen Television, after criticizing the standard of programming, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 21 October. Kakabayev was accused of serious financial violations and replaced by Annageldy Nurgeldyev. Niyazov also announced that the rebroadcasting of Russian Public Television programs will be cut to five hours daily. Niyazov said the move is necessary because of the cost of such broadcasts and because their contents often contradict the moral standards of Turkmen society. Niyazov called for Turkmen Television and Radio to become advocates of patriotism and a high standard of morality. BP[12] CONFISCATED WEAPONS HEAD BACK TO IRANThe Kyrgyz parliament held a special session on 20 October to decide what to do with 700 tons of weapons seized on a train earlier this month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 1998), Interfax and ITAR-TASS reported. According to RFE/RL correspondents, the Iranian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan attended the session and told lawmakers his country has obtained clearance from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to allow the train to return to Iran with its cargo. The train originated in Iran and traveled through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan before Uzbek customs officials noticed that two of the 20 railway cars, designated as carrying "humanitarian aid" bound for Afghanistan, contained weapons. Customs officials in Kyrgyzstan then impounded 16 of the railway cars outside Osh, while the other two remain unaccounted for. The Erkin Kyrgyzstan Party favored giving the weapons to the Kyrgyz armed forces. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] SERBIAN PARLIAMENT PASSES MEDIA LAWThe legislature on 21 October overwhelmingly approved a law that sharply restricts the freedom of the media. The measure incorporates into law and expands on the principles set down in a recent government decree that led to the banning of three independent dailies, several independent broadcasters, and the rebroadcast of foreign programs in Serbo-Croatian, including those of RFE/RL (see "RFE/RL Bosnia Report," 14 and 21 October 1998). The government's supporters in the parliament said that the law is necessary to preserve Serbia's sovereignty in the face of "foreign pressures" and efforts by foreigners and their "local servants to spread defeatism." Information Minister Aleksandar Vucic argued that the law will serve to "improve and develop human rights and freedoms [including]...the freedom of access to public information." PM[14] INDEPENDENT MEDIA SLAM NEW LEGISLATIONIn Belgrade on 20 October, spokesmen for the Association of Independent Electronic Media (ANEM) said that the new law is "part of an overall strategy [by the authorities]...to prevent any kind of free or critical expression." The spokesmen added that the legislation is the "most restrictive on media freedom in Serbian history." ANEM's representatives charged that the law presumes journalists to be guilty until proven innocent and establishes "ruthless trial procedures" for those charged with violating the new restrictions. The law, ANEM continued, "introduces a ban on listening to foreign stations that broadcast in Serbian. A similar ban existed only during the fascist occupation of Serbia during World War II. ... [The law also] introduces an absolute and open dictatorship and an information black- out, which will result in an inevitable decay of the state and nation." PM[15] CONCERN IN BOSNIA OVER SERBIAN LAWA spokesman for the international community's Carlos Westendorp said in Belgrade on 20 October that the Serbian legislation curtails freedom of speech and violates the democratic principles that the international community is working hard to implement in Bosnia. The spokesman mentioned unconfirmed reports that engineers from Serbia have recently removed from Bosnia's Mt. Kozara equipment for the broadcast of independent NTV He also pointed out that some Serbian television stations have begun using frequencies that enable them to drown out signals from stations within Bosnia. PM[16] DEMACI CLAIMS NO INFORMATION ON JOURNALISTSAdem Demaci, who is a senior Kosovar politician and the political spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), said in Prishtina on 20 October that he has no information about the two journalists from Serbia's Tanjug news agency who disappeared recently in Kosova (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 1998). Demaci added that "there is hope" that the men may still be alive if they have fallen into the hands of armed guerrillas, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. International journalists' organizations have called upon the Kosovar authorities to obtain the men's release. Local Serbs have frequently told foreign journalists in Kosova that Serbs who fall into the UCK's hands "are never seen again." PM[17] MONTENEGRO DEMANDS ROLE IN KOSOVA DECISIONSU.S. Ambassador to Macedonia Christopher Hill, who is also Washington's chief negotiator for Kosova, discussed the latest developments in that province with Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic in Podgorica on 20 October. After the meeting, Montenegrin spokesmen said that the Belgrade authorities must consult with their Montenegrin counterparts on matters regarding Kosova. The spokesmen added that the federal institutions currently implementing the agreement between Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke "do not represent the political interests of the citizens of Montenegro," an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Podgorica. PM[18] CLARK WARNS MILOSEVIC...General Wesley Clark, who is NATO's supreme commander in Europe, told Milosevic in Belgrade on 20 October that the Yugoslav leader must speed up his troop withdrawals from Kosova or risk NATO air strikes after the expiration of the 27 October deadline. Clark also talked with General Momcilo Perisic, who heads the general staff, about clarifying which Yugoslav military units must be withdrawn from Kosova under the Milosevic- Holbrooke agreement and which may stay (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 1998). In Vienna, the OSCE named veteran U.S. diplomat William Walker to head the 2,000- strong civilian verification mission in Kosova. PM[19] ...AS DOES UCKState-run Albanian Television on 20 October broadcast a statement by the UCK charging that Milosevic has not fulfilled a single promise he made to Holbrooke one week earlier. The UCK pledged to continue its recent self- declared cease-fire but added: "If the cruelties of Milosevic's gangs against the [Kosovar] Albanian population and the UCK positions continue, then the UCK reserves the right to...self-defense." The Serbian authorities claim that the UCK cease-fire is a fiction. A BBC reporter said on 21 October in northern Kosova that Serbian forces are shelling Kosovar villages in the area. PM[20] CROATIAN JOURNALISTS SET UP FUNDMembers of the Croatian Journalists' Association agreed in Zagreb on 20 October to set up a fund to support the family of Ankica Lepej, the bank employee who recently leaked information to the press about the account balance of President Franjo Tudjman's wife (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 1998). Lepej's husband has been unemployed since 1991, and she now faces a prison sentence of up to five years. Elsewhere, Ivo Pukanic, the editor of the independent weekly "Nacional," said that the newspaper's distribution agency has paid its back debts, which will enable Pukanic to pay his printer. The editor charged that distributor and printer, which are both close to the government, were working in collusion to force "Nacional" out of business. The Croatian authorities have often used financial pressures to silence independent voices in the media. PM[21] SLOVENIAN MINISTER QUITSDefense Minister Alojz Krapez resigned as defense minister on 20 October in the wake of a corruption scandal (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1998). His predecessor quit in February following an incident in which Croatian authorities arrested two Slovenian intelligence agents in a van full of surveillance equipment (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 February 1998). PM[22] SENIOR ALBANIAN DEMOCRAT CRITICIZES CONSTITUTION BOYCOTTTirana Mayor Albert Brojka told the "Albanian Daily News" of 21 October that he wants the Democratic Party to take part in the process of drafting the new constitution. He warned his fellow Democrats that the country needs a new constitution and that they should not hold things up any longer. On 20 October, for the second consecutive day, the Democratic Party leadership postponed a decision on whether to participate in the drafting process. FS[23] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT WANTS COUNTRY'S OIC STATUS CLARIFIEDRexhep Meidani on 20 October urged the legislature and government to take a clear stand on whether Albania is a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the "Albanian Daily News" reported. The government of former President Sali Berisha joined the OIC in 1992, but current Foreign Minister Paskal Milo claims that he found no proper documentation of that membership in the archives of the Foreign Ministry when he took office in August 1997. Since then, the Albanian government has claimed that Albania never belonged to the OIC. Berisha often stressed Albania's links to the Muslim world, but the current Socialist-led government emphasizes links to Euro-Atlantic institutions and has launched a crackdown on Islamic terrorism. FS[24] ROMANIAN CREDIT RATINGS DOWNGRADEDStandard & Poor's has downgraded Romania's credit rating and criticized its politicians for "petty politicking," Rompres reported on 20 October. The agency cut Bucharest's long- term foreign currency debt rating from B plus to B minus and its long-term currency debt was cut from BB to B plus. Standard & Poor's said in a statement that its hopes have been dashed that the appointment of Prime Minister Radu Vasile earlier this year would spur the government to move quicker on reforms. It said government infighting "is again prevalent and distracts the cabinet from addressing privatization and restructuring." An IMF delegation is to arrive in Bucharest next week for talks on a new stand-by loan. PB[25] MOLDOVAN BANKERS BOYCOTT EXCHANGE SESSIONCommercial banks boycotted the 20 October session of the Moldovan Interbank Currency Exchange, Infotag reported. No transactions were made, even though the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) offered to buy dollars at a lower exchange rate. The current rate, 5.74 lei to the dollar, is considered artificially strong, owing to the NBM's intervention. Commercial banks are also upset at the NBM's order that they increase their reserves from 8 percent to 25 percent of borrowed funds. NBM Governor Leonid Talmaci said if the commercial banks do not comply with that order, the NBM could "delegate our auditors to the banks or replace their leaderships." PB[26] COOK HAS LITTLE HOPE OF SOLVING MARKOV SLAYINGBritish Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said on 20 October that there is little chance that the London slaying of RFE/RL correspondent Gyorgy Markov will be solved, AFP reported. Cook made his comments after meeting with President Petar Stoyanov and Foreign Minister Nadejda Mikhailova in Sofia. Markov was killed 20 years ago after being pricked with a poison pellet at a bus stop in London. The pellet is alleged to have been injected into him by means of an umbrella. PB[27] EBRD TO OPEN BUSINESS LOAN BANK IN SOFIAThe European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will fund a bank that will provide credit to small-and medium- sized businesses in Bulgaria, BTA reported on 19 October. The announcement was made by Finance Minister Muravey Radev after a meeting with the EBRD board of directors. Radev complained to the board that Bulgaria is one of the largest investors in the EBRD but that the funds it has received from the bank are proportionately small. PB[C] END NOTE[28] UZBEKISTAN'S ECONOMY PERFORMING RESPECTABLY DESPITE SLOW REFORMSby Michael WyzanUzbekistan has chosen a gradual path to economic reform, arguing that the conditions prevailing in the Central Asian country militate against a radical move to a market economy. Indeed, the macroeconomic effects of the break-up of the USSR and the move away from central planning have been mild in Uzbekistan. Observers disagree on whether there is some inherent merit in gradualism or whether the country's agrarian structure and reliance on a few commodities (especially cotton, gold, and natural gas) easily sold on world markets account for the relatively good performance. Whatever the explanation, Uzbekistan's gross domestic product (GDP) declined less in the early years of the transition than in any other former Soviet republic. Uzbekistan's GDP this year is expected to be 91.1 percent of the 1990 level; comparable figures are 34.7 percent for Russia and 44.6 percent for Kazakhstan. By 1996, Uzbekistan's GDP was growing, albeit at a modest 1.6 percent rate. In 1997, it grew by 5.2 percent and in the first half of this yea by 4 percent. Agriculture has traditionally dominated production and exports. In 1997, the sector accounted for 26.8 percent of GDP, with cotton fiber alone responsible for 36 percent of export earnings. Cotton harvests, which remain the most important statistic to watch, fluctuate from year to year between 3.5 million and 4 million metric tons. This is down from the 4.6 million tons harvested in 1990, although the decline is to a certain extent the result of a policy to diversify agriculture by increasing production of grain, fruits, and vegetables. The service sector has grown sufficiently rapidly to become the largest of the economy (producing 30.7 percent of GDP last year). Industry, which is dominated by textiles, machinery, fuels, and non-ferrous metals (especially gold), has performed relatively well, registering positive growth in every year since 1994. Consumer price inflation has fallen from its peak of 1,117 percent in 1994 to only 13 percent in the 12 months to June 1998. However, it is too early to tell whether inflation in 1998 will be much lower than the projected 22 percent (or 1997's 27.6 percent). As a rule, the central bank significantly increases the money supply in the fall, as farmers and agricultural enterprises are paid by the state for fulfilling state orders for cotton and other crops. Another pro-inflationary factor is the 50 percent raise granted to public sector workers on 1 July. The use of state orders is not the only aspect of the economy that has remained virtually the same since the fall of the USSR. Officially, unemployment was only 0.4 percent in June. The average monthly wage, calculated at the official exchange rate, was $53 in the second quarter, up from $48 in December 1997. This gives Uzbekistan the second highest dollar wage in Central Asia after Kazakhstan, where the figure was $129 in June. In most years, Uzbekistan has run trade surpluses or small deficits, although 1996, with its poor cotton and wheat harvests, was an exception. Last year, there was a modest $143 million trade deficit, while from January-June 1998, there was a $203 million surplus. Exports and imports have been diverted away from the CIS, which accounted for 25 percent of exports and 31 percent of imports in the second quarter (compared with 62 percent and 54 percent, respectively, in 1994). The current account deficit in 1997, according to the IMF, was 4.6 percent of GDP, below the level at which alarm bells usually ring. Uzbekistan's ability to run up external imbalances is limited by the fact that it has not received support from the IMF since December 1996, when the fund suspended disbursements under a $185 million loan. The IMF took this action in response to the government's introduction of foreign-exchange controls in the aftermath of the 1996 poor harvests. There continue to exist two separate exchange rates for the sum--one determined on the Republican Currency Stock Exchange, where the central bank regulates transactions by limiting the number of participants, and another "market" rate determined on other exchanges, which are less tightly regulated. Since November 1996, the second rate (against the dollar) has generally been about twice the official one. For example, the official rate in June was 89.7 sum to the dollar, while market rate was 169.5 sum. During the crisis in Russia, the official rate has weakened considerably, reaching 105.4 sum on 15 October. It is tempting to see Uzbekistan's economic statistics as similar to Belarus's insofar as they reflect significant economic growth in a state that has avoided serious reform. However, Uzbekistan's economy is clearly less distorted than Belarus's in that the commodities that dominate the former's exports would presumably do so regardless of which economic system it had. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. 21-10-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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