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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 91, 99-05-12Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 91, 12 May 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] PROSECUTOR SUMMONS ARMENIAN EX-MINISTER FOR FURTHER QUESTIONINGFormer Interior Minister Vano Siradeghian has again been summoned to the Prosecutor-General's Office, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 11 May. On his return to Armenia on 3 May, Siradeghian was detained for questioning in connection with a series of killings he is suspected of having ordered during his tenure as minister between 1992- 1996. As a candidate in the 30 May parliamentary elections, he was released on 7 May (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 4 and 10 May 1999). Siradeghian, who is chairman of the board of the opposition Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), attended a parliamentary session on 11 May but refused to answer journalists' questions. LF[02] RELATIVE OF FORMER AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER JAILEDThe Azerbaijani Supreme Court sentenced Rza Guliev, nephew of former parliamentary speaker Rasul Guliev, to eight years' imprisonment on 11 May on charges of acquiring by deceit state property valued at 361 million manats ($72,000), Turan reported. Rza Guliev pleaded not guilty to those charges. His uncle, who has been living in the U.S. since leaving Azerbaijan in September 1996, has also been accused of large- scale theft of state property. LF[03] GEORGIAN OFFICIAL SAYS GUUAM DOES HAVE A MILITARY COMPONENTIn an apparent contradiction of earlier statements by Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze that the pact signed in Washington last month by members of the newly-enlarged Georgia-Ukraine-Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan-Moldova alignment "does not include any military aspects," Georgian Deputy Defense Minister Giorgi Katamadze told Interfax on 11 May that military cooperation between that grouping's five members does exist. But he stressed that cooperation is based on the coinciding strategic interests of the five GUUAM members, in particular the joint defense of the Eurasian transport corridor. He also noted that it is not directed against other parties. LF[04] GEORGIA TERMS SOUTH OSSETIAN POLL ILLEGALThe Georgian parliament has issued a statement condemning as illegal the 12 May elections to a new parliament in South Ossetia, Caucasus Press reported. The Georgian central government lost control over that former autonomous oblast in 1992, after several years of sporadic fighting in which most of the region's estimated 35,000 Georgian population fled. The Georgian parliamentary statement noted that no provision has been made for those Georgian displaced persons to cast their votes in the elections. It expressed the hope that the international community will not recognize the validity of the poll. LF[05] OSCE CRITICIZES NEW KAZAKH ELECTION LAWGerard Stoudman, who is chairman of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, told journalists in Astana on 11 May that the new election law does not differ greatly from the presidential decree that it supersedes, RFE/RL's Astana bureau reported. In particular, he criticized the $1,000 fee for registering as a parliamentary candidate, which, he said, "violates the requirement of equal opportunities for all candidates" and the ban on any potential candidate who has been brought to trial for administrative offenses. Stoudman also said that political parties should be involved in determining the composition of local electoral commissions. The new legislation empowers local governors to nominate the members of those commissions. LF[06] KAZAKHSTAN, CHINA CONCLUDE FIRST ROUND OF TALKS ON RIVERSKazakhstan's Foreign Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev told a press conference in Almaty on 11 May that the first round of Sino-Kazakh talks on shared use of the waters of the Irtysh and Ili Rivers ended that day in Beijing, RFE/RL correspondents in the former capital reported. Toqaev said the talks, which opened on 5 May, were held in a friendly atmosphere. The next round will take place in Astana later this year. Toqaev stressed that the issue of sharing river waters is totally separate from the 1998 agreement on demarcating the border between the two countries. He dismissed recent criticism of that border agreement by Murat Auezov, a former Kazakh ambassador to China and one of the leaders of the opposition Azamat party, as intended to win popular support in the runup to the parliamentary elections due this fall. LF[07] PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTY IN KAZAKHSTAN HOLDS FIRST CONGRESSThe OTAN party, which backs President Nursultan Nazarbaev and was formed in January 1999, held its first congress in Almaty on 11 May, RFE/RL correspondents reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 January 1999). Acting party chairman Sergei Tereshchenko predicted that the party will have some 300,000 members by this fall. Employees of state institutions are being pressured to apply for membership in OTAN. Interfax quoted Tereshchenko as predicting that OTAN will poll at least 50 percent of the seats in the lower chamber of the new parliament. LF[08] KYRGYZSTAN'S PRESIDENT CONCERNED BY PROSPECT OF YELTSIN'S IMPEACHMENTAskar Akaev told Interfax on 11 May that the Russian State Duma's efforts to impeach President Yeltsin are undermining the stability of the CIS. Akaev said the CIS was largely Yeltsin's creation and that integration processes within the commonwealth depend on Russia's position and on "solid presidential power." Meanwhile CIS Executive Secretary Yurii Yarov told journalists in Astana on 11 May that CIS heads of state will meet in Minsk on 4 June, according to Interfax. Yarov flew to Bishkek on 11 May for talks with Akaev. LF[09] TURKMENISTAN DISCUSSES BROADER COOPERATION WITH NATOA senior NATO official is currently in Ashgabat discussing with the Turkmen leadership expanding the country's program for participation in NATO's Partnership for Peace program, Interfax reported on 11 May. The terms of an agreement whereby Turkmen military officers will be trained by NATO at NATO's expense were also discussed. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[10] NATO DENIES ALLEGED SERBIAN TROOP WITHDRAWAL...NATO spokesman Jamie Shea said in Brussels on 11 May that there is no sign of a Serbian troop withdrawal from Kosova (see "RFE/RL Newsline" 11 May 1999). Shea said that such a withdrawal must be verifiable and that NATO demands a complete withdrawal of all forces, an RFE/RL correspondent reported. He added that as Milosevic talks about troop withdrawal, his forces are finishing off their "ethnic- cleansing" campaign. NATO military spokesman Walter Jertz said that Serbian forces have launched heavy attacks on remaining Kosova Liberation Army units inside Kosova. Elsewhere, British Defense Secretary George Robertson said in London that the withdrawal of some one hundred Serbian troops out of about 40,000 is just a cosmetic change. FS[11] ...STEPS UP AIR STRIKESA NATO statement issued in Brussels on 12 May says that over the last 24 hours allied planes flew more than 600 sorties, "including the highest number of strike sorties to date." NATO planes destroyed five MiG-21 planes on the ground and continued to attack airfields, bridges, and weapons sites as well as tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, command posts, barracks, and ground troops inside Kosova. NATO also attacked petroleum storage sites near Sombor and Nis. Meanwhile, the Turkish Defense Ministry has ordered its military to provide air bases for NATO to use in operations against Yugoslavia, following a request by the alliance, Reuters reported. FS[12] BLAIR REAFFIRMS NATO'S RESOLVEBritish Prime Minister Tony Blair insisted on 12 May that NATO will not weaken its demands over Kosova. He said in London that "we have apologized to the Chinese, we've worked very closely with the Russians. But there can't be any compromise about our basic aims," Reuters reported. He stressed the conditions that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic must meet before NATO stops the bombing have not changed: "His troops go out, our troops go in, and the refugees return. That is what this whole thing is about." FS[13] UN ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM TO INVESTIGATE AIR-STRIKE DAMAGEUnited Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Executive Director Klaus Toepfer said in Nairobi on 12 May that he is setting up a working group to look into the possible damage to the environment in Yugoslavia caused by NATO air strikes. The working group will also be charged with compiling reliable data on the damage to the infrastructure and residential areas. The experts will focus on possible water and air contamination as well as on the release of poisonous substances. FS[14] SERBIAN AUTHORITIES DROP ESPIONAGE CHARGES AGAINST GERMAN TV REPORTERGerman television reporter Pit Schnitzler, speaking to his network, SAT-1, by telephone from Belgrade on 12 May, said the Serbian authorities have dropped espionage charges against him. He said Yugoslav authorities handed him over to the Japanese embassy following an order by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, dpa reported. FS[15] NEW CLASHES AT ALBANIAN BORDERAlbanian border police, assisted by armed Albanian civilians, exchanged fire with Serbian forces at the border in the Has mountains late on 11 May, Reuters reported. Two elderly Albanian civilians were killed in the shoot-out. An OSCE spokeswoman in Tirana said the Serbian forces have taken up positions inside Albania and later withdrew. Near Padesh, 30 Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) fighters were wounded in a skirmish with Serbian troops. The spokeswoman added that OSCE observers are checking unconfirmed reports that the UCK rebels were attacked by a Serbian military aircraft that was later shot down and crashed on the Albanian side of the border. Meanwhile, another 3,600 Kosovar refugees entered Albania, according to officials from the UN High Commissioner of Refugees. FS[16] BALKAN LEADERS URGE UNITYThe Albanian, Macedonian, and Greek premiers, attending a conference in Salonika on 11 May, called upon one another to sideline their differences and forge strong ties, AP reported. Also attending the meeting were the ministers of foreign affairs and finance of those three countries, along with 600 business representatives. Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou stressed that "religious and ethnic hatred must be eliminated." He added that "the Balkan peninsula must no longer be a region of conflict and underdevelopment," expressing the hope that other countries will take advantage of the region's "new dynamic for peace and cooperation." Greek Economy Minister Yannos Papantoniou said Athens will participate in political and economic action groups to be set up together with the IMF, the World Bank, the EU, and larger donor countries. Those groups will draw up plans for regional reconstruction. Albania and Macedonia have been worst affected by the Kosova crisis, with their economies nearing collapse because of the inflow of refugees. FS[17] ABDIC WANTED BY INTERPOLBosnia's Interior Ministry officials told Reuters in Sarajevo on 12 May that two days earlier Interpol had issued a warrant for former warlord Fikret Abdic. Abdic, who has lived in the Croatian port of Rijeka since 1996, is charged with having committed crimes against humanity during the Bosnian war of 1992- 1995. He was a member of the Bosnian collective presidency when the war broke out. He and his followers declared an autonomous province in the besieged Bihac pocket after they broke ranks with the central government. He developed good relations with neighboring Croatia and with the Bosnian Serbs. FS[18] ROMANIA ASKS FOR MORE IMF MONEYRomanian Prime Minister Radu Vasile on 11 May said his government will ask the IMF for $250 million in addition to the $475 million it is now seeking, Reuters reported. The IMF is currently reviewing Romania's request for the $475 million standby credit. That money would resume the flow of World Bank and IMF funds to Romania, which were suspended after the international institutions criticized the country for implementing reforms too slowly. The Vasile administration on 12 May introduced to the parliament a package of reforms aimed at speeding up privatization and changing the country's corporate, bankruptcy, and leasing laws. That legislation will be linked to a confidence vote in the government. VG[19] MOLDOVA CALLS FOR SCHEDULED WITHDRAWAL OF WEAPONS FROM TRANSDNIESTERMoldovan OSCE representatives have called on the OSCE to draw up within six months a schedule for the withdrawal of all weaponry from the breakaway region of Transdniester, Infotag reported on 11 May. The Moldovan officials added that the Tiraspol administration has not been constructive in negotiations on a special status for the region. In other news, the Moldovan Constitutional Court rejected the former government's proposed amendments to Article 127 of the constitution on public ownership of natural resources and "communications." The amendment would have dropped the public ownership requirement for so-called "artificial communications," including water, oil, and gas pipelines, Infotag reported. VG[20] BULGARIA WARNS OF WHEAT SHORTAGEBulgarian Agriculture Minister Ventsislav Varbanov on 11 May said the NATO bombing campaign in Yugoslavia could create a wheat shortage in the Balkans, Reuters reported. He said that Yugoslavia might not be able to harvest its wheat crop and that Macedonia and Albania, who are mainly supplied by Bulgaria, will need more wheat to deal with the influx of refugees. Local wheat prices rose by 15 percent during the first month of the NATO campaign and now stand at about $88-$90 per metric ton. Bulgaria's wheat output for 1999 is forecast at about 2.7 million to 2.8 million metric tons, down from 3.3 million metric tons last year. VG[C] END NOTE[21] YELTSIN'S POLITICAL CALCULUSBy Paul GobleBoris Yeltsin's decision earlier today to fire Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov appears intended to solve some of the immediate problems facing the Russian president. But regardless of whether this latest move on the Moscow political chessboard works in that way, it seems certain to have some longer-term consequences, a few of which Yeltsin himself may not intend. Yeltsin's office released a statement on the morning of 12 May saying that the president has "relieved" Primakov of his responsibilities as premier and appointed Sergei Stepashin, one of Primakov's deputies, as acting head of the government. Because Primakov had said as recently as this week that he had no plans to resign, it seems certain that Yeltsin fired him rather than simply agreed to his resignation. Initial speculation about why Yeltsin took this step now has focused on the State Duma's plan to begin impeachment hearings against Yeltsin on 13 May. Yeltsin may have calculated that by dismissing Primakov, he might reduce the willingness of Duma deputies to vote for his own removal from office. On the one hand, many deputies are likely to be frightened by the prospect of impeaching the president when there is only an acting, rather than a confirmed, premier. On the other, many of them may see Yeltsin's decision as simultaneously eliminating a major contender in the succession and weakening the presidency vis-a-vis the parliament. But if these are indeed Yeltsin's short-term calculations, they could easily backfire. Many other deputies may see Yeltsin's latest move as further evidence of the president's increasingly erratic behavior and thus conclude that the country would be better off with almost anyone else. And they are likely to try to extract enormous concessions from the executive before they are willing to approve anyone, including Stepashin. Such feelings are likely to be especially strong not only in the Russian political class but also among the Russian people. Many in both groups were especially cheered by Russia's recent diplomatic gains as a result of the mediation efforts of former premier and current presidential special envoy to Yugoslavia Viktor Chernomyrdin in the Kosova crisis. At the very least, this latest political upheaval in Moscow will mean that Russian leaders will have less time to focus on future diplomatic efforts. There are clearly many unknowns in this short-term algebra, but Yeltsin's latest action fits a pattern that he has followed before. Consequently, it may be possible to say more about the longer-term implications of what he has done than to identify how the dismissal of Primakov will affect Russian politics tomorrow and next week. First, Yeltsin has frequently sought to govern by crisis. Not only does he seem to be at his best precisely when things appear to be the worst, but he has at various points used crises precipitated by others or by himself to help transform the Russian political system. And he is likely to try to use this crisis in the same way. The Russian president may use it to break out of the current economic impasse and push for reform, or he may move in an entirely different direction. But if Yeltsin has the strength to operate as he has in the past, his sacking of Primakov almost certainly will mean that he and no one else will define any change of direction. Second, Yeltsin has often used his own weakness, perceived or real, against his opponents. Just when people are writing off the president, he has again and again shown that he can change the political chessboard in ways that allow him to corner those who thought they would be able to push him away. Yeltsin's understanding that weakness properly exploited can be a source of strength for himself and his allies has prevented the institutionalization of the Russian executive branch. And the departure of Kremlin deputy administrator Oleg Sysuev, along with Primakov, reflects the way in which Yeltsin has typically chosen to maintain his own position by keeping others off-balance. Third, Yeltsin has manipulated the Russian political system for his own purposes by constantly turning to those who have been at or near the center of power before. The selection of Stepashin as acting prime minister is a reflection of this pattern, one that may in some ways even reassure the political elite that Yeltsin has no intention of really changing the top political cadres, regardless of his radicalism in many areas. Despite his firing, Primakov may very well resurface somewhere else, just as Chernomyrdin has done in international negotiations about Yugoslavia. Consequently, Yeltsin may again be able to count on a certain cohesiveness of his government even as he takes a step that would appear certain to destroy that very quality. But precisely because Yeltsin has governed in this way so often in the past, he may now be at risk of having gone this particular route once too often. And if other Russian officials and the Russian people more generally decide that his governing by crisis is no longer acceptable, Yeltsin could discover that the sacking of Primakov will precipitate the largest political crisis he has faced since becoming president of the Russian Federation. 12-05-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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