RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 211, 99-10-29

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 211, 29 October 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER, PARLIAMENT SPEAKER GUNNED DOWN

[02] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSUMES PREMIER'S DUTIES

[03] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY CALLS FOR RESIGNATION OF

[04] OPPOSITION PARTY DISOWNS LEADER OF GUNMEN

[05] NEW ARMENIAN CATHOLICOS ELECTED

[06] U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE IN ARMENIA

[07] AZERBAIJAN SEEKS TO DEPORT CHECHEN REFUGEES

[08] LANDMINE DISCOVERED IN GEORGIAN BORDER GUARDS HQ

[09] GEORGIA DENIES HARBORING CHECHEN GUNMEN

[10] ANOTHER RUSSIAN ROCKET EXPLODES OVER KAZAKHSTAN

[11] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FORMS NEW UMBRELLA GROUP

[12] TAJIK SUPREME COURT REJECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S APPEAL

[13] TAJIK OPPOSITION LEADER APPEALS FOR HELP TO ENSURE POLL IS

[14] ISLAMISTS AGAIN VOW TO MAKE UZBEKISTAN AN ISLAMIC STATE

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] MACEDONIA TO ELECT A PRESIDENT...

[16] ...BUT WHO WILL IT BE?

[17] MONTENEGRO ADOPTS LAW ON CITIZENSHIP...

[18] ...PREPARES TO INTRODUCE GERMAN MARK

[19] DODIK BLASTS BELGRADE OVER CURRENCY CHARGE

[20] PETRITSCH INTRODUCES DECREES ON BOSNIAN PROPERTY

[21] PARTIES REGISTER FOR BOSNIAN VOTE

[22] CROATIAN PRESIDENT IN THE VATICAN

[23] META ACCEPTS ALBANIAN PREMIERSHIP

[24] CONVOY OF SERBS ATTACKED IN KOSOVA

[25] AIR CORRIDOR TO KOSOVA TO REOPEN

[26] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES TO STICK TOGETHER

[27] MILOSEVIC PRAISES RAMSEY CLARK

[28] DEL PONTE WANTS BIG FISH

[29] EU TO GIVE ROMANIA LARGE GRANTS

[30] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SLAMS OPPOSITION LEADER

[31] ROMANIAN STUDENTS PROTEST

[32] RUSSIAN CONTINGENT IN TRANSDNIESTER DESTROYS ARSENAL

[33] BULGARIA, EU TO NEGOTIATE CLOSING KOZLODUY

[C] END NOTE

[34] VIOLENCE AND RECRIMINATIONS OVERSHADOW GEORGIAN ELECTION

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER, PARLIAMENT SPEAKER GUNNED DOWN

shot dead Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian, parliamentary

speaker Karen Demirchian and his two deputies, a government

minister, and two parliamentary deputies in the parliament's

main chamber on 27 October. A third parliamentary deputy died

of a heart attack, and six were seriously injured. The gunmen

initially claimed they were staging a coup but later said

they wanted only to protest the country's economic collapse,

for which they held Sargsian responsible. They allowed

journalists to leave the parliament but held deputies and

government ministers hostage overnight. The gunmen

surrendered in the late morning of 28 October after talks

with government leaders, including President Robert

Kocharian, who assured them a free trial, and after a

statement detailing their grievances was read on state

television (see also "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 2. No.

43, 28 October 1999). LF

[02] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSUMES PREMIER'S DUTIES

Kocharian on 29 October temporarily took over the duties of

prime minister, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported quoting a

presidential spokeswoman. The previous day, he declared three

days' national mourning, which will culminate in the funeral

of the murdered officials on 31 October. He will name a new

premier next week, after the parliament elects its new

speaker and deputy speakers. Meeting with Kocharian on 28

October, the leaders of all parliamentary parties and

factions pledged their support for him. Also on 28 October,

former President Levon Ter-Petrossian issued a statement

calling on all Armenians to "unite around the president and

meet the challenge to our statehood with solidarity and

dignity," Noyan Tapan reported. LF

[03] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY CALLS FOR RESIGNATION OF

In an emotional statement

released on 28 October, the Armenian Defense Ministry, which

Vazgen Sargsian had headed from mid-1995 until June of this

year, called for the resignation of the interior and national

security ministers and the prosecutor-general. It blamed the

two former for failing to ensure adequate security at the

parliament building. Carrying assault rifles, the five gunmen

had reportedly entered that building through an entrance

reserved for journalists. It also castigated all three men

for failing to solve the murders of two prominent Defense

Ministry officials. Interior Minister Suren Abrahamian

tendered his resignation the same day, but Kocharian has not

yet accepted it. LF

[04] OPPOSITION PARTY DISOWNS LEADER OF GUNMEN

Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun issued a statement on

27 October saying that Nairi Hunanian, the leader of the five

gunmen, had been expelled from the party for "misconduct" in

1992 within a year of joining it. Over the last six months,

Hunanian, who is 34 and a former journalist, had openly

spoken about "the need to bring the government down by force

and destroy its leaders," "Novoe vremya" reported on 28

October. LF

[05] NEW ARMENIAN CATHOLICOS ELECTED

27 October, delegates to the National Ecclesiastical Assembly

elected Garegin Nersisian, Archbishop of Ararat, as the 132rd

Catholicos of All Armenians. Nersisian received 263 votes in

the second, secret ballot, compared with 176 for Archbishop

Nerses Pozapalian. Nersisian, who is 48, was born in a

village near Echmiadzin and entered the seminary there in

1965. He has studied theology in Vienna, Bonn, and the

Russian Orthodox Church Academy in Azgorsk, from which he

graduated in 1979. LF

[06] U.S. DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE IN ARMENIA

Sargsian was shot dead on 27 October, Strobe Talbott had met

with the prime minister as well as with President Kocharian

and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian for four hours to

discuss the Karabakh peace process and related measures to

establish peace and stability in the South Caucasus, Noyan

Tapan reported. Kocharian stressed his commitment to a

peaceful solution of the conflict, noting that the

unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic should be a full party

to the negotiating process. LF

[07] AZERBAIJAN SEEKS TO DEPORT CHECHEN REFUGEES

authorities on 27 October deported 20 Chechen refugees who

had arrived in Baku on a flight from Tbilisi earlier that

day, Caucasus Press reported. On arriving by bus at the

frontier with Georgia, the refugees refused to leave

Azerbaijani territory and the next day declared a hunger

strike. A spokesman for Azerbaijan's National Security

Ministry said that the country cannot accept more refugees as

it already has "more than 1 million" internally displaced

persons as a result of the war in Karabakh. LF

[08] LANDMINE DISCOVERED IN GEORGIAN BORDER GUARDS HQ

Georgian Border Guards' Tbilisi headquarters were evacuated

on 27 October after an anti-personnel landmine was discovered

in the building, ITAR-TASS reported, quoting Border Guards

commander Valerii Chkheidze. The last contingent of Russian

border guards stationed in Georgia had vacated the building

earlier that day. Chkheidze told Caucasus Press that the

contingent will be detained at the Georgian-Russian border in

order to clarify the incident. LF

[09] GEORGIA DENIES HARBORING CHECHEN GUNMEN

Security Ministry on 28 October denied that Chechen gunmen

have crossed the frontier into Georgia's Akhmeta Raion, ITAR-

TASS reported. Speaking at a press conference in Tbilisi the

previous day, former Defense Minister and independent

parliamentary candidate Tengiz Kitovani said a band of 450

armed Chechens is encamped in the Pankisi gorge in that

raion. LF

[10] ANOTHER RUSSIAN ROCKET EXPLODES OVER KAZAKHSTAN

rocket exploded shortly after blastoff from the Baikonur

cosmodrome on 27 October, the second such explosion within

four months (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 July 1999). No injuries

were reported from falling debris, some of which has been

located. As was the case in July, the Kazakh authorities have

again suspended launches of Proton rockets from Baikonur

pending an investigation into the cause of the blast. The

Kazakh Foreign Ministry has sent a formal protest note to

Moscow in connection with the incident, which Kazakhstan's

Premier Qasymzhomart Toqaev discussed in a telephone

conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on

28 October, according to Interfax. LF

[11] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FORMS NEW UMBRELLA GROUP

on 27 October under police surveillance, some 300

representatives of 13 opposition movements and parties

adopted a resolution on the formation of a new Democratic

People's Party, RFE/RL correspondents in the former capital

reported. Participants also adopted a second resolution

criticizing procedural violations during the recent

parliamentary elections and terming the poll illegal and

invalid, Interfax reported. They appealed to the

international community not to recognize the validity of the

poll and demanded new elections next year. Addressing the

gathering, Orleu (Progress) Party chairman Seydakhmet

Quttyqadam called for the resignation of President Nursultan

Nazarbaev. In a written statement read to the meeting, former

Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin affirmed that the Kazakh

authorities "stole victory from democratic forces before the

eyes of the Kazakh people and the international community,"

Reuters reported. LF

[12] TAJIK SUPREME COURT REJECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S APPEAL

by Economics Minister Davlat Usmon to annul his registration

as a candidate for the 6 November presidential election, Asia

Plus-Blitz reported. The Supreme Court last week overruled

the Central Electoral Commission's refusal to register Usmon,

but the latter protested that the court decision is illegal

as he had submitted only some 82,000 signatures in his

support, rather than the legal minimum of 145,000 (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999). Usmon's 5-year-old

nephew was kidnapped in Dushanbe on 27 October but found

unharmed on the city outskirts the following day, according

to Interfax. LF

[13] TAJIK OPPOSITION LEADER APPEALS FOR HELP TO ENSURE POLL IS

United Tajik Opposition and Islamic Renaissance

Party leader Said Abdullo Nuri has written to OSCE chairman

in office Knut Vollebaek and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan

to enlist their organizations' help in organizing "democratic

and fair" presidential elections, Interfax and ITAR-TASS

reported. Nuri charged that the current strained political

climate is "not contributing to peace and national accord."

He added that the UTO will not resume its participation in

the Commission for National Reconciliation until its demand

for an emergency session of the parliament is met. In a 28

October press release, Human Rights Watch termed the upcoming

presidential poll "a farce" in the light of government

restrictions on potential candidates and on the activities of

political parties, the media, and freedom of association. LF

[14] ISLAMISTS AGAIN VOW TO MAKE UZBEKISTAN AN ISLAMIC STATE

October, Zubair ibn Abdurrakhim, who is chairman of the board

of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, said the movement aims

to focus world attention on the persecution of "thousands and

thousands" of Muslims in Uzbekistan and ultimately to oust

the current Uzbek leadership and establish an Islamic state,

ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. He said the seizure by the

movement's guerrillas of hostages in Kyrgyzstan was in

retaliation for the Kyrgyz government's expulsion of 250

Uzbek oppositionists to Uzbekistan. Speaking in Dushanbe the

following day, United Tajik Opposition leader Nuri argued

against the forced deportation from eastern Tajikistan of

Uzbek Islamists who had failed to comply with the Tajik

government's 27 October deadline to leave the country

voluntarily, according to ITAR-TASS. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] MACEDONIA TO ELECT A PRESIDENT...

31 October in the first round of voting to elect Macedonia's

second president since independence in 1991. If, as expected,

none of the six candidates wins a majority, a second round

will take place on 14 November. Incumbent Kiro Gligorov is

not running for re-election. He is the first of the post-

communist heads of state in the Yugoslav successor states to

leave office. Moreover, his is the only one of those

republics to win independence from Belgrade peacefully. Known

as "the old fox," Gligorov is widely credited with having

kept his country out of regional conflicts. He also sought to

establish good relations with neighboring states without,

however, drawing too close to any of them. In recent months,

he has been involved in acrimonious public disputes with the

center-right government of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski,

who has been in office for almost one year. Gligorov is close

to the opposition Social Democrats, who held power until

Georgievski and his allies defeated them in a campaign that

emphasized promoting free markets and ending corruption. PM

[16] ...BUT WHO WILL IT BE?

presidency are Vasil Tupurkovski of the multi-ethnic

Democratic Alternative and Boris Trajkovski of Georgievski's

Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO),

Reuters reported on 28 October. Both parties belong to the

governing coalition and were long expected to field a joint

candidate, namely Tupurkovski. But continuing rivalries

within the coalition and poor performances by some of

Tupurkovski's ministers in the cabinet led VMRO to decide to

go it alone. Both of the main ethnic Albanian parties are

running a candidate, but their voters are likely to come

exclusively from the Albanian minority, which represents only

about one-quarter of the population. Trajkovski, Tupurkovski,

and the Social Democrats' Tito Petkovski have all sought to

court the Albanian vote. Most parties agree on the need for

economic development, European integration, and ethnic

harmony. PM

[17] MONTENEGRO ADOPTS LAW ON CITIZENSHIP...

Podgorica passed a law on Montenegrin citizenship on 28

October. The new legislation recognizes a separate

Montenegrin citizenship distinct from that of Yugoslavia or

Serbia. Deputies loyal to Yugoslav President Slobodan

Milosevic walked out of the session, saying that the law is

separatist. Pro-independence Liberals also quit the meeting,

charging that the legislation does not go far enough to

restore full independence, AP reported. PM

[18] ...PREPARES TO INTRODUCE GERMAN MARK

Djukanovic said in Podgorica on 28 October that Montenegro is

ready to introduce the German mark as a parallel currency to

the Yugoslav dinar (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999).

He stressed that while Montenegro does not want to

destabilize Yugoslavia or the region, the government is

obliged to protect its citizens against growing inflation in

Serbia. PM

[19] DODIK BLASTS BELGRADE OVER CURRENCY CHARGE

caretaker Prime Minister Milorad Dodik told Belgrade's

"Danas" of 29 October that Yugoslav Information Minister

Goran Matic is trying to deceive his own people. Matic

recently charged that with Western backing, the Republika

Srpska has sought to destabilize the Yugoslav dinar by

"flooding" Serbia with forged dinar banknotes. Dodik

commented that people forge only strong currencies, not the

inflation-plagued dinar. He added that the source of Serbia's

economic woes is its own regime, whose policies constitute an

"economic war" against Serbs in both Serbia and Bosnia. PM

[20] PETRITSCH INTRODUCES DECREES ON BOSNIAN PROPERTY

international community's Wolfgang Petritsch issued several

decrees on 28 October enabling Bosnian refugees and displaced

persons to reclaim their property in either half of the

republic. He called the decision a "watershed,"

"Oslobodjenje" reported. Observers note that a major problem

preventing people from going home is that other people are

squatting in their flats and houses. Local nationalists often

back the squatters in their claim to the property in an

effort to consolidate the results of "ethnic cleansing." PM

[21] PARTIES REGISTER FOR BOSNIAN VOTE

which organizes elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, said in

Sarajevo on 28 October that 73 parties and 17 independent

candidates have registered for the local elections slated for

April 2000, dpa reported. PM

[22] CROATIAN PRESIDENT IN THE VATICAN

exhibition of Croatian religious art in the Vatican on 28

October (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 October 1999). PM

[23] META ACCEPTS ALBANIAN PREMIERSHIP

named Deputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta to head the new

government following the recent resignation of Meta's ally

Pandeli Majko (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 29 October 1999).

Meta said that he "will do the impossible to work for a

better life for Albanian citizens." He noted that he will

retain Interior Minister Spartak Poci, who has cracked down

on gangs, particularly in the north. PM

[24] CONVOY OF SERBS ATTACKED IN KOSOVA

Albanians blocked and ransacked a convoy of 155 Serbs in Peja

on 27 October, injuring at least 18. A Dutch KFOR commander

said that some of the Serbs would "certainly" have been

killed if peacekeepers had not intervened. The Serbs were en

route from their isolated settlement near Rahovec to

Montenegro. They continued on their way after the incident.

UN, KFOR, and Serbian officials condemned the attack. Serbian

spokesmen said in Belgrade that the incident shows that KFOR

is unable to protect Kosova's Serbian population. PM

[25] AIR CORRIDOR TO KOSOVA TO REOPEN

on 28 October approved a request by NATO and the EU to reopen

an air corridor to civilian flights to Kosova (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 15 October 1999). PM

[26] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES TO STICK TOGETHER

of 15 opposition parties agreed in Belgrade on 28 October to

work together "before, during, and after" any future

elections, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The single

largest opposition party, which is Vuk Draskovic's Serbian

Renewal Movement, did not sign the pact. Elsewhere, Serbian

Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj said that the governing

parties will also maintain a united front whenever elections

are held. PM

[27] MILOSEVIC PRAISES RAMSEY CLARK

Ramsey Clark met with Milosevic in Belgrade on 28 October.

The Serbian leader called his guest "brave, objective, and

moral" for his opposition to NATO's recent bombing campaign

against Serbia, AP reported. Very few Westerners have called

on Milosevic since May, when the Hague-based war crimes

tribunal indicted him for atrocities committed in Kosova. PM

[28] DEL PONTE WANTS BIG FISH

tribunal's new chief prosecutor, said in Prishtina on 28

October that her priority will be to bring top-ranking war

criminals to justice. These include Milosevic, Bosnian Serb

leader Radovan Karadzic, and Bosnian Serb General Ratko

Mladic, she added. She noted that Milosevic may face charges

in addition to those for which he has already been indicted.

In The Hague, a court spokesman said that Serbia, Croatia,

and the Republika Srpska have failed to deliver a total of 35

indicted war criminals to the tribunal. PM

[29] EU TO GIVE ROMANIA LARGE GRANTS

enlargement Guenter Verheugen said in Bucharest on 28

October that the union will provide Romania with 600

million euros ($636 million) annually until 2006 to upgrade

transport, environment, agriculture, and rural development

programs. Verheugen, who met with President Emil

Constantinescu and Chamber of Deputies Chairman Ion

Diaconescu, said the EU wants to see consensus among

Romanian parties on joining the union, RFE/RL's Bucharest

bureau reported. The government the same day approved

Romania's National Development Plan, which is to be

submitted to the EU by the end of the month. MS

[30] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SLAMS OPPOSITION LEADER

released on 28 October, Constantinescu said that Party of

Social Democracy in Romania Deputy Chairman Adrian

Nastase's recent criticism of the government's decision to

raise wages for employees of the Defense and Internal

Affairs Ministries is "demagogic." Nastase had said the

decision is a "bribe paid ahead of the electoral campaign

for the use of [police] truncheons." The Defense Ministry

also criticized Nastase, who responded that he was not

insulting "those in uniform" but the "demagogy that

characterizes the discourse of those in power." MS

[31] ROMANIAN STUDENTS PROTEST

Bucharest and other cities on 27 and 28 November demanding

higher grants and better living conditions on campus,

RFE/RL's Romanian service reported. The students said they

have decided to go on strike for "an unlimited period." MS

[32] RUSSIAN CONTINGENT IN TRANSDNIESTER DESTROYS ARSENAL

several tons of ammunition that had belonged to the former

14th army stationed in the separatist region, ITAR-TASS and

BASA-press reported. General Valerii Yevnevich, who

commands the Russian contingent in the breakaway region,

told journalists that the destruction of the ammunition was

stipulated in an agreement with Tiraspol that had been

reached "with the assistance of Prime Minister Vladimir

Putin." ITAR-TASS cited Yevnevich as saying that the

withdrawal of the remaining arsenal "will take up to six

years" and require "400 special trains" that will transit

Ukraine. Romanian Radio reported on 28 October that Putin

has invited Transdniestrian leader Igor Smirnov to Moscow

for talks. MS

[33] BULGARIA, EU TO NEGOTIATE CLOSING KOZLODUY

government on 28 October announced it will begin negotiations

with the EU on a plan to shut down the aging Kozloduy nuclear

plant, AP reported. The agency said that under the government

plan, Bulgaria wants to leave the two newer reactors

functioning until the two older ones have been

decommissioned. BTA reported the same day that parliamentary

Energy Committee Chairman Kiril Ermenkov said that the older

units must not be closed before 2003, while the newer ones

must operate until 2008-2010. Ermenkov said that the EU

proposal that the older units be closed in 2001 and the newer

ones the following year is "unacceptable." MS

[C] END NOTE

[34] VIOLENCE AND RECRIMINATIONS OVERSHADOW GEORGIAN ELECTION

by Liz Fuller

In the runup to Georgia's 31 October parliamentary

elections, policy issues have been virtually eclipsed by

recriminations and complaints. Leaders of the most

influential political parties have accused one another of

malpractice. Hundreds of would-be candidates have complained

over the Central Electoral Commission's refusal to register

them. And there has been widespread concern about election-

related violence.

As in the 1992 and 1995 elections, several dozen parties

and blocs are on the ballot sheet. And as in previous polls,

parties with very similar priorities and programs have mostly

chosen to run individually, rather than join forces. For

example, there are several parties or blocs representing

Communists and Stalinists, and three whose declared principal

aim is to revive the moribund industrial sector. At the same

time, the electoral alliances that have emerged tend to unite

parties with diverging, in some cases even conflicting

policies or orientations.

Two blocs are considered to have the greatest chance of

achieving the minimum 7 percent of the vote needed to win

seats under the proportional system (150 seats in the

parliament are to be allocated under this system, while the

remaining 85 are to be contested in single-mandate

constituencies).

The first comprises the Union of Citizens of Georgia

(SMK), which forms the largest faction in the outgoing

parliament, and the recently created Party for the Liberation

of Abkhazia, headed by the chairman of the so-called Abkhaz

parliament in exile, Tamaz Nadareishvili. The second is the

Union for the Revival of Georgia, headed by Aslan Abashidze,

chairman of the Supreme Council of the Adjar Autonomous

Republic. That bloc unites four parties: Abashidze's Union

for Democratic Revival, which is the second-largest faction

in the outgoing parliament; the Socialist Party; the Union of

Traditionalists, which in 1990 formed part of the late Zviad

Gamsakhurdia's Round Table--Free Georgia coalition; 21st

Century, which includes supporters of the late president; and

a nameless group of supporters of former Georgian Communist

Party First Secretary Djumber Patiashvili.

The only other groups that, according to observers, are

likely to win seats under the party-list system are the

right-wing National Democratic Alliance--Third Way; the Labor

Party, which scored a significant success in the November

1998 local elections; and Industry Will Save Georgia, which

is headed by beer magnate Gogi Topadze.

The SMK's 1995 election victory was due to then

parliamentary chairman Eduard Shevardnadze's success in

stabilizing the domestic political situation after three

years of chaos, collapse, civil war, and economic decline and

thereby laying the foundation for a modest economic upswing.

But despite millions of dollars in credits from international

financial organizations, that upswing was not sustained, nor

did Shevardnadze succeed in making good on his 1995 election

promise to create 1 million new jobs. Popular disillusion

with the SMK contributed to the unanticipated strong showing

of Shalva Natelashvili's Labor Party in the November 1998

local elections.

Observers disagree as to how much of a threat

Abashidze's alliance poses to the SMK. Adzharia may appear

relatively calm, stable, and prosperous compared with the

rest of Georgia, but that stability is maintained by

suppressing dissent. And many analysts believe that Adjaria's

economic success is at least partly due to its

misappropriation of millions of lari in taxes that should

have paid to the central government in Tbilisi. In addition,

Abashidze is widely regarded both in Georgia and abroad as a

stalking-horse for Moscow, which still maintains a military

base in Adzharia.

An early October poll put support for the Union of

Citizens of Georgia at 27 percent and for the Union for

Revival at 17.8 percent. But an article in "Nezavisimaya

gazeta" of 22 October put Abashidze's support countrywide at

46 percent, compared with only 22 percent for Shevardnadze's

party. Such predictions, together with Shevardnadze's recent

description of the election campaign as "a struggle for

power," have served to fuel the widespread popular perception

that the SMK will resort to underhand means, including

falsification of the vote, to ensure an election victory.

Other developments have similarly contributed to

apprehension that the poll will be less than free and fair.

Buses transporting Abashidze's supporters to a planned rally

in Tbilisi were intercepted by police in Khashuri, in western

Georgia, and forbidden to proceed for several days.

Natelashvili has claimed that power supplies have been cut in

some rural areas when Labor and other opposition candidates

appeared on state television. Several opposition and

independent candidates have been attacked and injured. And

the Central Electoral Commission refused to register a total

of 476 candidates on the grounds that their applications

contained errors. As of 25 October, the commission was still

unable to say precisely how many candidates would contend the

poll.

The rising tensions have been exacerbated by the

realization that the parliamentary poll is, in effect, also a

"qualifier" for next April's presidential elections. Both

Shevardnadze and Abashidze have already announced their

intention to run in that ballot. If the SMK defeats

Abashidze's bloc by only a narrow margin, tensions will

likely rise even more over the next six months, and other

candidates may be tempted to participate in the hope not so

much of winning but of being rewarded for backing one or the

other candidate in an anticipated runoff. If, however,

Abashidze's bloc fares worse than most observers currently

predict, then either Patiashvili, Socialist Party leader

Vakhtang Rcheulishvili, or Traditionalists' chairman Akaki

Asatiani may decide to challenge Abashidze as the bloc's

presidential candidate.

29-10-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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