RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 248, 99-12-23

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 248, 23 December 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT, REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGREE ON COOPERATION,

[02] PROSECUTORS DENY BEATING ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SHOOTING SUSPECTS

[03] FOUR GEORGIAN BORDER GUARDS INJURED BY ARTILLERY FIRE

[04] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY REJECTS RUSSIAN ACCUSATIONS...

[05] ...AS MOSCOW THREATENS TRADE SANCTIONS

[06] GEORGIAN SECURITY OFFICIALS FEAR NEW ATTACK ON PRESIDENT

[07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT EXPANDS POWERS OF MINISTER OF STATE

[08] IMF AGREES ON NEW CREDIT FOR KAZAKHSTAN

[09] GEORGIAN TEACHERS LAUNCH STRIKE

[10] KYRGYZ CABINET DISCUSSES ECONOMIC CRIME

[11] ANOTHER KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY CONSIDERS FORMING BLOC

[12] MORE REPRISALS AGAINST BAPTISTS IN TURKMENISTAN

[13] TURKMENISTAN SEEKS TO REASSURE UKRAINE OVER GAS DEAL

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] HAGUE COURT TO EXPAND INVESTIGATIONS...

[15] ...INCLUDING OF MILOSEVIC

[16] PANIC: HAGUE THE SOLUTION TO SERBIA'S PROBLEMS

[17] SERBIA: FRIENDS ARE WHERE YOU FIND THEM

[18] SERBIAN DRAFT RESISTERS FEEL ABANDONED

[19] MACEDONIAN COALITION AGREES ON RESHUFFLE

[20] ALBANIANS LOSE BIG IN PYRAMID SCHEMES

[21] OSCE TO MONITOR CROATIAN VOTE

[22] CROATIAN SPY SCANDAL GROWS

[23] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS VASILE'S 'REVOCATION'

[24] ROMANIANS OBLIVIOUS TO REVOLUTION COMMEMORATION

[25] GAZPROM CUTS SUPPLIES TO MOLDOVA YET AGAIN

[26] BULGARIAN PREMIER SAYS COUNTRY MUST CHANGE MENTALITY

[C] END NOTE

[27] TWO VERY DIFFERENT RESHUFFLES

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT, REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGREE ON COOPERATION,

Robert Kocharian and leaders of the Republican

Party, one of the two members of the Miasnutiun majority

parliament faction, said after talks on 22 December that they

reached agreement on unspecified measures to stabilize the

domestic political situation following the 27 October murders of

eight senior officials, including the HHK's leader, Prime

Minister Vazgen Sargsian, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. HHK

chairman

Andranik Markarian told RFE/RL that his party places political

stability in Armenia above anything else. He said such stability

is essential for progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Markarian also said his party opposes calls by some members of

the Yerkrapah Union of veterans of the Karabakh war for fresh

presidential and parliamentary elections. LF

[02] PROSECUTORS DENY BEATING ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT SHOOTING SUSPECTS

allegations that one or more of the men arrested in connection

with the 27 October parliament shootings has been subjected to

violence during interrogation, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported.

Ruben Sahakian, defense counsel to a former presidential aide

charged with complicity in the killings, said on 18 December that

his client saw "traces of violence" on the face of Nairi

Hunanian, the leader of five gunmen, when brought face to face

with him for questioning. Sahakian has accused the investigators

of manipulating the case to achieve their desired objective.

Military Procurator Gagik Jahangirian has rejected that

accusation. The lawyer of arrested parliament deputy Mushegh

Movsisian, who is also charged with involvement in the attack,

has asked Jahangirian to allow a medical examination of his

client. LF

[03] FOUR GEORGIAN BORDER GUARDS INJURED BY ARTILLERY FIRE

Georgian border guards deployed in the village of Shatili were

slightly injured on 22 December when fired on from a grenade-

launcher from the Russian side of the Georgian-Chechen border,

Reuters and Caucasus Press reported. A Security Ministry official

said it was not clear whether the shells were fired from the

ground or from the air, and whether Russian federal forces

fighting in southern Chechnya were responsible. Russian border

guard official Nikolai Reznichenko said that the Russian border

guards who landed in the Argun gorge on the morning of 22

December could not have been responsible for the incident as they

were still not within range of Shatili. Georgian President Eduard

Shevardnadze chaired a session of the country's National Security

Council later on 22 December to assess the situation on the

frontier with Russia, ITAR-TASS reported. LF

[04] GEORGIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY REJECTS RUSSIAN ACCUSATIONS...

Georgian Foreign Ministry on 22 December responded to the

statement issued by its Russian counterpart the previous day

again accusing Georgia of abetting Chechen militants, Caucasus

Press and Reuters reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 December

1999). Characterizing the Russian statement as "an unfriendly

step" and the accusations it contains as "slanderous" and

"unsubstantiated," the Georgian statement again denies that

Georgia has either allowed arms or ammunition destined for

Chechnya to transit Georgian territory, or agreed to host a

Chechen "government in exile." LF

[05] ...AS MOSCOW THREATENS TRADE SANCTIONS

Russian Foreign Ministry issued a further statement warning that

Russia might impose customs duties on imports from Georgia,

Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. The statement said such a move

would be a justifiable reponse to the decision by Georgia's

Supreme Court to declare null and void a free trade agreement

concluded between the two countries in 1994. Georgian Foreign

Ministry spokesman Avtandil Napetvaridze on 22 December denied

that the Supreme Court had annulled the agreement referred to,

noting that it is not within the court's competence to do so,

ITAR-TASS reported. LF

[06] GEORGIAN SECURITY OFFICIALS FEAR NEW ATTACK ON PRESIDENT

anticipating that Russia may orchestrate a new attempt to

assassinate President Shevardnadze, Caucasus Press reported on 22

December, quoting the daily "Rezonansi." The paper suggested that

the Russian agents charged with the killing may pose as Chechen

militants. Former Defense Minister Tengiz Kitovani has warned

that the increasing transport of weapons and drugs from Chechnya

to Georgia poses a threat to Georgia's security, while former

National Security chief Irakli Batiashvili has expressed concern

that the continuing Russian accusations that Georgia is

supporting the Chechens may herald a new Russian attempt to

destabilize Georgia. LF

[07] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT EXPANDS POWERS OF MINISTER OF STATE

Shevardnadze has broadened the powers of the Minister of State,

Caucasus Press reported on 22 December. The minister's powers are

now equal to those of a prime minister, and include convening

cabinet meetings and issuing normative laws. LF

[08] IMF AGREES ON NEW CREDIT FOR KAZAKHSTAN

approved a three year $453 million credit for Kazakhstan, the

first tranche of which, worth $35 million, will be made available

shortly, Asia Plus Blitz reported. On 22 December, the World

Bank's permanent representative in Kazakhstan told journalists in

Almaty that the Bank will release the third tranche, worth $75

million, of a loan to finance restructuring the management of

state resources and a second tranche, worth $100 million, for

pension reform in Kazakhstan, according to Interfax. The Bank

will also provide $140 million towards financing improvements in

Kazakhstan's national power grid. The World Bank has lent

Kazakhstan over $300 million in 1999. LF

[09] GEORGIAN TEACHERS LAUNCH STRIKE

districts began a strike on 21 December to demand their salaries,

which have not been paid for 8-10 months, Caucasus Press

reported. The president of Georgia's Teachers' Association,

Giorgi Amashukeli, told journalists in Tbilisi that police have

already used violence to disperse a demonstration by teachers in

the town of Kutaisi, and predicted that police would also attempt

to thwart a second protest demonstration in that town scheduled

for 23 December. LF

[10] KYRGYZ CABINET DISCUSSES ECONOMIC CRIME

Muraliev chaired a cabinet session on 22 December devoted to

assessing the extent of the country's shadow economy and economic

crime, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Security Council

secretary Bolot Djanuzakov told journalists that the shadow

economy accounts for an estimated 10-12 percent of GDP. He said

that up to 60 percent of the oil products Kyrgyzstan imports

enter the country illegally, and estimated the damage to the

economy from smuggling at 700 million soms (about $16 million).

Economic crime accounts for similar economic losses, Djanuzakov

added. LF

[11] ANOTHER KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY CONSIDERS FORMING BLOC

at the second congress of the opposition Democratic Movement of

Kyrgyzstan on 22 December, that organization's chairman,

parliament deputy Djypar Djeksheev, said that several opposition

parties may align in a bloc next month, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

reported. Earlier in December, Melis Eshimkanov, chairman of the

El (Bei-Beshara) Party (Party of the Unfortunate) had similarly

predicted that the Bei-Bechara, Ar-Namys, Agrarian and Republican

parties and the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan might unite to

form a bloc named either "The New Kyrgyzstan" or "The Congress of

Democratic Parties," and which would be headed by prominent

politician Chinara Jakypova. Also on 22 December, representatives

of four pro-government parties, "Adilet," "Birimdik," "My

Country" and the Social-Democratic Party, also held talks in

Bishkek with State Secretary Naken Kasiev on creating a united

bloc. LF

[12] MORE REPRISALS AGAINST BAPTISTS IN TURKMENISTAN

ministers were arrested in Turkmenistan on 16-17 December, and

Baptist churches in Chardjou, Mary, Turkmenbashi and Ashgabat

were raided, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported on 22 December.

The city authorities demolished a Seventh Day Adventist church in

Ashgabat last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 November 1999). LF

[13] TURKMENISTAN SEEKS TO REASSURE UKRAINE OVER GAS DEAL

Prime Minister responsible for energy resources Elly

Gurbanmuradov said on 22 December that the deal Ashgabat

concluded last week to sell natural gas to Russia will not affect

future supplies to Ukraine, Interfax reported (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 20 December 1999). He suggested that if Ukraine

seriously wants to buy Turkmen gas next year, it should first pay

at least 30 percent of its $100 million outstanding debt for

earlier deliveries. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] HAGUE COURT TO EXPAND INVESTIGATIONS...

del Ponte said in The Hague on 22 December that she wants to

expand from 19 to 36 the number of investigations under way for

war crimes committed in Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosova. She added

that she hopes to indict 150 additional persons, many of whom are

in leading positions. She stressed that her "top priority for the

new year will be the arrest of leading figures who are still at

liberty," Belgrade's "Danas" reported. She dismissed comments by

Mira Markovic, the wife of indicted war criminal and Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic, who compared the Hague's detention

quarters to Nazi death camps. "If I could speak with Madame

Milosevic, I would tell her to invite her husband to the

detention center to see how comfortable it is," AP reported. PM

[15] ...INCLUDING OF MILOSEVIC

to expand its investigation of the Yugoslav president as well.

"From the [ongoing] investigations new elements emerge that could

lead to a genocide charge [against Milosevic]. While he remains

the head of his country it will be difficult to get him, but

later, we'll see.... I can only say there are elements from other

investigations that involve him. It is an issue we are working

on," Reuters reported from Rome on 23 December. PM

[16] PANIC: HAGUE THE SOLUTION TO SERBIA'S PROBLEMS

businessman and former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic told

"Danas" of 23 December that elections will not solve anything in

Serbia, "because Milosevic will steal them, as he has before."

Panic stressed that the only way out of Serbia's dilemma is to

get Milosevic and his henchmen to The Hague. The Serbian-American

businessman praised the policies of Montenegrin President Milo

Djukanovic. He stressed that it is imperative to station NATO

troops on Montenegro's border with Serbia. PM

[17] SERBIA: FRIENDS ARE WHERE YOU FIND THEM

Minister Zivadin Jovanovic will fly to China on 25 December to

promote the already "very good relations" between the two

dictatorships, Reuters reported. On 23 December, Russian Defense

Minister Igor Sergeev arrived in Belgrade and will go on to meet

with Russian KFOR troops. The previous day, General Leonid

Ivashov, head of the International Military Cooperation Board in

the Russian Defense Ministry, told a news conference in Moscow

that Russia will "revise" the conditions of its participation in

KFOR if the peacekeepers' mission "fails." He did not elaborate.

He made clear, however, that Moscow has no intention of "opting

out of or of quitting" the province, Interfax reported. Observers

note that Russia and Serbia use their mutual contacts for

propaganda purposes. Belgrade seeks to show that it is not

isolated. Moscow wants to demonstrate that it is still a great

power in the Balkans. Serbia also exchanges delegations with some

fellow pariah countries such as Iraq, which also have a history

of using violence against their own citizens. PM

[18] SERBIAN DRAFT RESISTERS FEEL ABANDONED

published an article on 22 December on the plight of dozens of

young Serbian males in Hungary "who feel abandoned by everyone,"

the BBC's Serbian Service reported. The young men fled to Hungary

to avoid being conscripted into Milosevic's genocidal campaign in

Kosova earlier in 1999. They now feel abandoned by the

international community, although they still face punishment in

Serbia as "deserters and traitors." PM

[19] MACEDONIAN COALITION AGREES ON RESHUFFLE

three parties in the governing coalition agreed in Skopje on 22

December to reshuffle their government. According to the

agreement, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization

(VMRO) will have 13 seats, the much smaller Democratic

Alternative (DA) eight, and the Democratic Party of Albanians

five ministers, AP reported. The DA's Vasil Tupurkovski will

become deputy prime minister with responsibility for economic

reform and European integration. The final composition of the new

government is expected to be announced after a special

legislative session on 27 December. Relations between the three

parties have been strained for some time. The coalition has

nonetheless survived internal differences over the Kosova crisis

and over the recent presidential election. Tupurkovski was

angered by VMRO's refusal to support his presidential bid and has

threatened to leave the coalition. PM

[20] ALBANIANS LOSE BIG IN PYRAMID SCHEMES

government-appointed administrator overseeing the liquidation of

the now-defunct pyramid schemes, said only a small amount of the

$1.4 billion invested will go back to investors, Reuters

reported. Starting in January, some 185,000 creditors of 12

audited schemes will receive $40 million out of the $740 million

they invested. The 68,500 investors in VEFA, which was the most

important single pyramid, will get back $20 million out of the

$325 million they invested. Arapi said no money is available for

hundreds of thousands of creditors of 12 other fraudulent

schemes--mainly charities that promised 10 percent per month--

because they had no assets to sell. The collapse of the pyramid

network in 1997 let to anarchy and a change of government. PM

[21] OSCE TO MONITOR CROATIAN VOTE

will monitor the 3 January parliamentary elections, RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported on 22 December. An OSCE spokesman

in Zagreb added that he regrets that Croatian state-run

television (HRT) continues to be the mouthpiece of the governing

Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) despite numerous calls from

abroad and within Croatia to transform it into a neutral public

broadcaster. Elsewhere, Marijan Ramuscak, who heads the State

Election Commission, said that Croats will be able to cast their

ballots at polling places in 46 foreign countries. Croatia has

traditionally had a high rate of economic emigration. PM

[22] CROATIAN SPY SCANDAL GROWS

Separovic has published the names of yet more public figures,

whom he claims the intelligence services have illegally monitored

at the behest of HDZ hard-liners, "Jutarnji list" reported on 23

December. Targets include prominent people from the HDZ as well

as from the opposition. Some of the names are Foreign Minister

Mate Granic, acting president and Parliamentary Speaker Vlatko

Pavletic, former director of HRT Antun Vrdoljak, opposition

leaders Drazen Budisa and Ivica Racan, the EBRD's Christopher

Cviic, and Bosnian Foreign Minister Jadranko Prlic. Separovic

added that Ivic Pasalic, who leads the Herzegovinian lobby in the

HDZ, played a key role in the snooping. Pasalic responded that

the opposition promised Separovic a cabinet post if he agreed to

implicate him in the scandal. State Attorney Berislav Zivkovic

called on Separovic to prove his charges. PM

[23] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT EXPLAINS VASILE'S 'REVOCATION'

interview on Romanian television, President Emil Constantinescu

on 22 December said the basic law makes a distinction between

"revoking" a member of the government and "dismissing" a

minister. He said former Premier Radu Vasile has not been

"dismissed" but "revoked." He explained that faced with a

situation in which Vasile was refusing to resign and

parliamentary factions were refusing to move a no confidence

motion, he chose to "revoke" him, a prerogative granted him by

the constitution in the case of regular cabinet members. He said

that for this purpose Vasile was regarded as any cabinet member

(The constitution does not grant the president the right to

"dismiss" the premier). Constantinescu said it was his duty to do

so in a situation where Vasile was refusing to answer his

telephone calls and to come to the presidential office after

having been summoned there (see also "End Note"). MS

[24] ROMANIANS OBLIVIOUS TO REVOLUTION COMMEMORATION

hundred people gathered on 22 December in Bucharest's

Revolutionary Square to mark the flight of former Communist

dictator Nicolae Ceausescu 10 years earlier. At the same time,

Constantinescu was swearing in the members of Premier Mugur

Isarescu's new cabinet. Meanwhile, the Senate 's Permanent Bureau

designated Mircea Ionescu-Quintus as the house's interim chairman

during the recession that is to last till 1 February. National

Liberal Party leader Ionescu-Quintus is a deputy chairman of the

house, and that position will apparently be taken over by former

Premier Vasile, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

[25] GAZPROM CUTS SUPPLIES TO MOLDOVA YET AGAIN

ceremony of his new cabinet, Prime Minister Dumitru Barghis said

solving the problems of the energy sector will be the highest

priority of his government, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. On

the same day, Gazprom halted all gas shipments to Moldova,

because of its mounting debt to the Russian energy giant. Moldova

owes Gazprom $190 million for gas deliveries, which together with

penalties for failing to meet payment deadlines and interest

amount to $ 300 million, Interfax reported. MS

[26] BULGARIAN PREMIER SAYS COUNTRY MUST CHANGE MENTALITY

Minister Ivan Kostov on 22 December said Bulgarians must change

their mentality and adopt the European system of values in its

stead, BTA reported. In a lecture to Sofia University students,

Kostov said this is one of the greatest challenges ahead on the

road to EU accession. He said every Bulgarians must learn to

shoulder his or her own responsibility instead on shifting the

blame on to others, and preferably on the state. It is also

important, he said, that Bulgarians learn to sacrifice themselves

for the sake of others. Kostov also said Bulgarians must learn

how to cope with tough competition. He said the decision to close

down the controversial Kozloduy nuclear plants will make the

country's economy less competitive, as its units will be replaced

by conventional facilities producing costlier energy. MS

[C] END NOTE

[27] TWO VERY DIFFERENT RESHUFFLES

Bulgaria's and Romania's parliaments this week approved

reshuffles in the respective governments of the two countries. On

the surface, both measures were prompted by the need to enable

the executive to better prepare the accession talks with the EU,

to which both Romania and Bulgaria were admitted at the Helsinki

summit earlier this month.

In actual fact, comparing the two government restructurings

is to compare crab apples with Williams pears. The reshuffle of

the government in Bulgaria was initiated by Prime Minister Ivan

Kostov and applauded by President Petar Stoyanov; that in Romania

came about as a result of a cabal between President Emil

Constantinescu and the leadership of the ruling National Peasant

Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD) and its main target was former

Prime Minister Radu Vasile. This being so, the cabinet now headed

by National Bank governor Mugur Isarescu includes only two new

ministers, whereas in Bulgaria the reshuffle was sweeping-10 out

of the 16 members of the cabinet made room for new faces.

Among the targets that Kostov intends to pursue is that of

amending the constitution, specifically by doing away with

provisions that do not fall in line with EU legislation, such as

the article prohibiting the purchase of land by non-Bulgarian

nationals. In Romania, on the other hand, the constitution has

been "amended" before the reshuffle, by a dubious

"interpretation" of an article in the basic document that makes

it possible for the premier to be dismissed if incapacitated. The

PNTCD at the end of the day forced Vasile to resign. Not,

however, before producing a pitiful spectacle: one day Vasile was

deemed by PNTCD chairman Ion Diaconescu to be unfit for returning

to his former post of PNTCD secretary general, the next day--

after a bargain had been struck-- he was allowed to do so and

even to --in all likelihood-- become Senate chairman, taking over

the position from Petre Roman, the country's new Foreign

Minister.

No sooner had the constitutional crisis ended that a new one

seemed to emerge. This is so because Isarescu insists on having

legal insurance that he can return to his former position as

National Bank governor. Like the premier, the National Bank

governor is appointed by the parliament, and in order to

circumvent a law prohibiting the holding of double office, when

investing the new cabinet the legislature also "suspended"

Isarescu from his governorship for the length of his cabinet's

tenure. The opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania says

this is illegal and it may be right-- which does not happen very

often.

But the inapplicability of a comparison between the two

countries does not stop here, though, of course, it is important

that in Bulgaria the reshuffle has been carried out without

raising constitutional questions. As a result of change there,

Kostov now has only one, instead of formerly three deputy

premiers. This innovation is aimed at streamlining the

government's work and enabling it to concentrate on its main

task--improving economic performance. The same task is also

mentioned in Romania, but the number of deputy premiers has not

been reduced there. On the contrary, in fact a new forum of

deputy premiers has been created. This may be necessary to

coordinate the bad functioning of the Romanian coalition, but it

added one more structure to an already cumbersome administrative

make-up.

In Bulgaria, among the few survivors in the cabinet one

finds the country's Foreign Minster Nadezhda Mihailova. And

rightly so, since the charming Bulgarian chief diplomat has been

one of the chief architects of her country's success at Helsinki.

In Romania, on the other hand, non-party affiliated Andrei Plesu

now makes room for Roman. But it is no secret that Roman is a

contender to the presidency in the year 2000, as is

Constantinescu. The constitution gives large prerogatives to the

president in the conduct of foreign policy a task at which

Constantinescu has excelled. But the two former Foreign Ministers

who preceded Roman, Adrian Severin and Plesu, easily adapted to

the part of second lieutenants to Constantinescu. In electoral

year 2000 Roman is unlikely to acquiesce to playing a similar

role, and this competition could hinder, rather than promote, the

country's foreign policy goals.

There is no need to over-idealize the Bulgarian reshuffle.

The change was partly prompted by the country's endemic

corruption, though none of the ministers replaced are suspected

of being involved in illegal deals. The same, however, applies to

Romania, where, unlike in Bulgaria, the Justice and Interior

Ministers (the two departments closest implicated in combating

corruption) retain their portfolios. Kostov was also animated by

the desire to change his cabinet's image, following mediocre

results in the local elections held in October. There were no

local elections in Romania, but obviously--judging by both

opinion polls and the ever-growing wave of labor unrest-- the

government's rating is at low ebb.

Finally, Kostov might have also wanted to curtail somewhat

the power of such replaced influential figures as his former

deputies Evgeni Bakardzhiev and Alexander Bozhkov, who now return

to their posts in the ruling Union of Democratic Forces. But he

has done this elegantly--if politics can be elegant-- whereas in

Romania the unrest in the ruling PNTCD is likely to continue.

Viewed from this perspective, Romania seems closer to her other

neighbor, party-conflict ridden Moldova, where a change of

government has also taken place this week. Which, after all, is

not surprising, given the two countries' long historical joint

legacy--a legacy where politicking has often overshadowed the

"making of politics."

23-12-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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