RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 1, 00-01-03

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 1, 3 January 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] AZERBAIJAN SETS UP STATE OIL FUND

[02] AZERBAIJAN FREES TWO ARMENIAN POWS

[03] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT CONFIRMS HE WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION

[04] GEORGIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, ADJARIA SEEK TO RESOLVE TAX

[05] KYRGYZ SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BAN ON OPPOSITION PARTY

[06] KYRGYZ PRO-GOVERNMENT PARTIES FORM ELECTORAL ALLIANCE

[07] TAJIK POLICE DEFUSE DUSHANBE BOMB

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] CROATS GO TO THE POLLS...

[09] ...INCLUDING THOSE ABROAD...

[10] ...BUT FOR HOW LONG?

[11] RACAN SETS CROATIA'S AGENDA

[12] IZETBEGOVIC HOPES FOR OPPOSITION VICTORY

[13] PETRITSCH WARNS BOSNIA

[14] FRANCE'S RICHARD WANTS GREATER POLICE ROLE FOR KFOR

[15] MILOSEVIC TELLS MONTENEGRO TO CHOOSE

[16] SLOVENIAN OFFICIAL QUITS OVER Y2K APPEAL

[17] 'PEACE BELL' RINGS IN TIRANA

[18] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS TAX REFORMS "JUST THE BEGINNING"

[19] EU GIVES GRANT TO ROMANIA TO ENCOURAGE REFORMS

[20] FORMER ROMANIAN PREMIER MIGHT LEAVE POLITICS

[21] MOLDOVAN PREMIER PAINTS GRIM PICTURE OF ECONOMY

[22] BULGARIA IMPOSES VISA REQUIREMENTS ON 'HIGH RISK' CIS

[23] BULGARIA, EU, SIGN GRANT AGREEMENT

[C] END NOTE

[24] A Transforming Resignation

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] AZERBAIJAN SETS UP STATE OIL FUND

Heidar Aliev on 29 December issued a decree on creating a

state oil fund in order to provide revenues for funding

socio-economic and infrastructure projects, Turan reported.

The fund will be formed on the basis of the proceeds from the

sale of crude oil and gas, bonuses received from foreign oil

companies, and rent paid by those companies for the use of

state property. Interfax on 20 December quoted National Bank

chief executive Elman Rustamov as saying that $25 million

from the sale of the state oil company's share in the first

oil extracted from the Chirag field will be paid into the

fund as soon as it is opened. Interfax reported that the

rationale for creating the fund is to minimize the risk that

oil export revenues will be squandered. LF

[02] AZERBAIJAN FREES TWO ARMENIAN POWS

authorities on 30 December released two Armenian prisoners of

war captured earlier in December, AP reported. The move comes

after Yerevan's mid-December release of an Azerbaijani

conscript in what was termed "a good-will gesture," (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 16 December 1999). LF

[03] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT CONFIRMS HE WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION

Shevardnadze said in his weekly radio address on 3 January

that he has already made up his mind to seek a second

presidential term in the 9 April presidential elections,

Caucasus Press reported. Neither Shevardnadze nor any other

potential candidate has formally announced their intention to

contend the poll. LF

[04] GEORGIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, ADJARIA SEEK TO RESOLVE TAX

Talks in Batumi on 30 December between Georgian

Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze and Adjar Supreme

Council Chairman Aslan Abashidze went some way toward

resolving the disagreement between the central government and

the Adjar Autonomous Republic over the 30 million lari

(approximately $15 million) which Tbilisi claims Adjaria owes

to the state budget, Caucasus Press reported. The talks are

scheduled to resume after 7 January. On 3 January, President

Shevardnadze said in his weekly radio interview that Adjaria

should retain an unspecified part of its budget revenues for

2000 but added that it should still pay the entire amount

owed for last year. LF

[05] KYRGYZ SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS BAN ON OPPOSITION PARTY

Supreme Court on 31 December upheld the 24 December decision

by a Bishkek district court that the Central Electoral

Commission ruling barring the El (Bei-Beshara party) from

participating in the 20 February parliamentary elections

under the party list system is valid, RFE/RL's bureau in the

Kyrgyz capital reported. The party had brought legal

proceedings in a Bishkek district court against the Justice

Ministry. The ministry had advised the Central Electoral

Commission not to register the party to participate in the

poll under the proportional system. Earlier, the Supreme

Court had ordered the district court to reconsider its

decision, but the lower court declined to overturn its

original ruling. The Supreme Court then rejected a second

appeal by El (Bei-Beshara), which is estimated to be the

second-largest political party in Kyrgyzstan after the

Communist Party. LF

[06] KYRGYZ PRO-GOVERNMENT PARTIES FORM ELECTORAL ALLIANCE

meeting in Bishkek on 30 December, the leaders of the Social

Democratic Party, the Party of Economic Revival, and the

Birimdik Party announced they will draw up a joint party list

to contest the 15 seats in the 60-mandate lower chamber of

the new Kyrgyz parliament that will be allocated under the

proportional system, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The

leaders of the three parties occupy the first three places on

that combined list. LF

[07] TAJIK POLICE DEFUSE DUSHANBE BOMB

and defused an eight kilogram bomb in central Dushanbe

shortly before the start of New Year's celebrations on 31

December, AP reported. Prime Minister Akil Akilov and members

of the government were scheduled to attend the celebrations.

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] CROATS GO TO THE POLLS...

on 3 January across Croatia to enable about 3.85 million

eligible voters to elect a new parliament. A total of 55

political parties are contesting approximately 150 seats,

with the exact number of seats depending on the size of the

turnout among Croatians living abroad. Two opposition

coalitions are widely favored to win. The Social Democrats'

Ivica Racan is likely to head an opposition-run government.

Polls suggest that the governing Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ), which has been in power since 1990 and has

been tainted by corruption and other scandals, will have to

go into opposition. Many observers predict that the broadly-

based HDZ will eventually split up along ideological lines

into at least two new parties. The HDZ is nonetheless

expected to win the presidential vote on 24 January, provided

that moderate Foreign Minister Mate Granic is the party's

candidate. PM

[09] ...INCLUDING THOSE ABROAD...

eligible voters abroad began casting their votes at 152

polling places in 47 countries. The largest group is in

Bosnia-Herzegovina, where there are 29 polling sites. The

voters abroad include emigrants and "guest workers" but most

are Herzegovinians, who are also citizens of Bosnia. Turnout

in Herzegovina was heavy and ran up to 90 percent in some

places. Exit polls suggested that the traditionally

nationalistic Herzegovinians voted overwhelmingly for the

HDZ, in which many Herzegovinians hold influential positions.

PM

[10] ...BUT FOR HOW LONG?

to the Bosnian Muslim political leadership) that the

Herzegovinians hold full Croatian citizenship and have the

right to vote. Many observers expect an opposition-led

government to curb the rights of the Herzegovinians. It is

unlikely, however, that the government would curtail the

emigrants' voting rights, since Croatia traditionally has a

large and economically important diaspora, especially from

Dalmatia. In 1990, emigrants were angry at attempts by the

governing communists to deny them the vote. They returned to

Croatia en masse to vote for the HDZ and its leader, the late

Franjo Tudjman. PM

[11] RACAN SETS CROATIA'S AGENDA

December that the opposition "has already held talks with the

most important [Western countries]...and I believe that an

opportunity will soon arise for experts and government people

to come to Croatia, immediately after the election." He

stressed that the new government must act quickly to cut the

bloated budget, reform the subsidized pension and health

systems, and shut down loss-making industries. Once the

opposition comes to power, Croatia's international standing

will improve quickly, he added. Racan said he is anxious to

make up for lost time in pursuing EU membership. President

Tudjman, who died in December, doggedly refused to institute

key political and economic reforms demanded by Brussels and

Washington as the prerequisite for Croatia's integration into

Euro-Atlantic institutions. PM

[12] IZETBEGOVIC HOPES FOR OPPOSITION VICTORY

leader Alija Izetbegovic on 30 December said it is no secret

that there were profound differences between himself and

Tudjman, whom Izetbegovic regarded as opposed to Bosnian

statehood. The Muslim leader, who was speaking in Sarajevo,

said he expects relations between Zagreb and Sarajevo to

improve after the elections, and that this improvement will

be "substantial" if the opposition wins, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. PM

[13] PETRITSCH WARNS BOSNIA

Wolfgang Petritsch said in a New Year's message in Sarajevo

that Bosnia can no longer "muddle along as it has so far." He

stressed that the country needs "radical change...[if it]

does not want to become Europe's abandoned backyard." PM

[14] FRANCE'S RICHARD WANTS GREATER POLICE ROLE FOR KFOR

Defense Minister Alain Richard said on 1 January at the

French military base at Novo Selo that KFOR peacekeepers

should play a greater role in ensuring basic security in the

troubled province. The UN's Bernard Kouchner has frequently

complained that only 1,800 of the promised 6,000

international police officers have arrived. In Prishtina on 2

January, he said a lack of funds has prompted him to postpone

planned elections. He told Reuters that "it's all too easy to

say that [the crisis in Kosova] is over. It's not over at

all: it's ahead of us.... [The lack of money] makes me really

angry.... This is important for the people and for the world-

-stability in the Balkans." On 30 December, some 2,000 Serbs

in Rahovec appealed to Kouchner to ensure their security or

provide a convoy "for us to collectively leave this hell,"

Beta news agency reported. PM

[15] MILOSEVIC TELLS MONTENEGRO TO CHOOSE

Slobodan Milosevic told the government-run daily "Politika"

on 30 December that Montenegro is free to leave the Yugoslav

federation if it wishes to do so. He added, however, that the

Montenegrins must "stick to the rules" if they choose to

remain in a joint state with Serbia. The Frankfurt-based

Serbian daily "Vesti" reported that Milosevic has promoted

General Milorad Obradovic, who commands the Second Army

(which is responsible for Montenegro), and General Geza

Farkas, who heads the general staff's security department

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 December 1999). The daily stressed

that the promotions of the two men suggest that Milosevic

sees Montenegro as the most important issue facing him at

present. He also made General Vladimir Lazarevic head of the

staff of the Third Army, which is responsible for Kosova.

Replacing him at the head of the Prishtina Corps is General

Radojko Stefanovic. PM

[16] SLOVENIAN OFFICIAL QUITS OVER Y2K APPEAL

who heads the Office for Protection and Rescue, resigned his

post on 3 January. He had come in for sharp media criticism

for recommending the previous week that Slovenians buy

emergency reserves of food, water, batteries, candles, and

medicines, Reuters reported. He denied charges that he had

exaggerated the dangers of the potential Y2K problem.

Usenicnik stressed that his recommendations were no different

than those made by officials of other countries. No major Y2K

difficulties have been reported in the former Yugoslavia. PM

[17] 'PEACE BELL' RINGS IN TIRANA

Albanian capital on 30 December after making a two-month trip

from the Vatican via Italy and Kosova. The bell is made out

of 30,000 bullets gathered by children in the region of Lezha

in northern Albania. The project was the idea of a Roman

Catholic priest in Lezha, Father Don Antonio Scara. The bell

bears the inscription: "I was born of bullets, and will ring

in the road to peace for Albanian children in the third

millennium," AP reported. Lezha witnessed particularly

intense violence during the civil unrest that swept Albania

following the collapse of pyramid investment schemes in early

1997. PM

[18] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS TAX REFORMS "JUST THE BEGINNING"

Minister Mugur Isarescu on 30 December said the tax reforms

announced by the government last week are "just the

beginning" of a series of measures aimed at stimulating the

Romanian economy, fostering competitiveness, and fighting the

"gray economy" and corruption. He said the "innumerable"

incentives that were granted to companies in the past have

been replaced by only two incentives -- one aimed at

encouraging investment and the other at boosting exports.

Isarescu said the previous system generated arbitrariness in

the granting of incentives and encouraged dishonesty in

reporting income. He said he expects a drop in the inflation

rate to balance the price hikes that will result from the

government's decision to increase VAT, RFE/RL's Bucharest

bureau reported. (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 December 1999).

MS

[19] EU GIVES GRANT TO ROMANIA TO ENCOURAGE REFORMS

Minister Petre Roman and EU mission head in Romania Fokion

Fotiadis on 30 December signed in Bucharest an agreement

under which the EU will grant Romania 209 million euros

($212.5 million) to encourage reforms and to cover their

social costs, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Fotiadis

said EU financial assistance to Romania will quadruple in

2000 to help the country make progress in its accession talks

with the union. MS

[20] FORMER ROMANIAN PREMIER MIGHT LEAVE POLITICS

with RFE/RL on 30 December, former Prime Minister Radu Vasile

said he needs a period of "political detoxification" to

recover from the "existential nausea" produced by the

"abusive and disgraceful manner" in which he was pushed to

resign by the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic

(PNTCD). He said he is considering withdrawing from politics

altogether. However, he said he is also thinking of setting

up "a Christian-Democratic Popular Party." But Vasile said he

lacks the funds and the energy to set up such a group, adding

that the PNTCD "and other presidential circles" are trying to

tarnish his image in the media. Vasile denied reports that he

is involved in membership negotiations with other political

parties but confirmed that several political groups have

approached him with offers of membership. MS

[21] MOLDOVAN PREMIER PAINTS GRIM PICTURE OF ECONOMY

Minister Dumitru Barghis on 30 December said the 1999 budget

deficit reached some 500 million lei (more than $43 million),

inflation was 40 percent, and the GDP fell by 4 percent

compared with 1998. Moldova's external debt stands at almost

1.3 billion lei and its internal debt is 2 billion lei.

Barghis also criticized the Finance and Interior ministries,

saying the existing laws must be enforced more strictly in

order to fight tax evasion and corruption, RFE/RL's Chisinau

bureau reported. In other news, the government on 30 December

reinstated General Nicolae Alexei as deputy interior minister

and head of the ministry's Department for Combating Organized

Crime and Corruption. The cabinet of former Prime Minister

Ion Sturza had dismissed Alexei from those posts (see "RFE/RL

Newsline,'"30 December 1999). MS

[22] BULGARIA IMPOSES VISA REQUIREMENTS ON 'HIGH RISK' CIS

Bulgaria introduced visa requirements for the

citizens of 17 of the 24 states that are on the EU's list of

"high risk" countries effective on 1 January, BTA and ITAR-

TASS reported on 30 December. Seven former Soviet republics

are on the list -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Until now, citizens

of those countries have been able to enter Bulgaria with an

invitation or a tourist voucher. MS

[23] BULGARIA, EU, SIGN GRANT AGREEMENT

granted Bulgaria 125 million euros ($126.5 million) to

support its accession efforts, BTA and AP reported. The

amount will be doubled in 2001. The acting head of the EU

mission to Bulgaria, Edigio Conicani, and Bulgarian Foreign

Minister Nadezhda Mihailova signed an agreement on the grant

in Sofia. In other news, BTA reported on 30 December that

prices for household consumption of electricity and natural

gas were increased by 10 percent as of 1 January. MS

[C] END NOTE

[24] A Transforming Resignation

Boris Yeltsin's resignation as Russian president

appears likely to fundamentally alter the relationship

between Moscow and the West, at a minimum putting

cooperation between the two on hold for a certain

period of time and more likely reducing the level of

cooperation over the longer haul.

There are three reasons for that conclusion.

First, as has been true for much of the last

generation, the West's relationship with Moscow has

been more personal than political. That is, it has been

between individual leaders in the West and the man in

charge in Moscow. That was true in Leonid Brezhnev's

time, in Mikhail Gorbachev's time, and it has been true

in Yeltsin's time as well.

Every change at the top in Moscow has required the

establishment of new personal ties. That inevitably

takes time and hence inevitably becomes the occasion

for intense deliberations about what kind of a

relationship it should be. That is especially likely

now because of acting President Vladimir Putin's past

as a security officer and his current actions in

Chechnya.

While Western leaders have praised Yeltsin and

promise continued close ties with Putin, virtually all

of them will be under pressure from politicians and

analysts in their own countries who viewed Yeltsin at

best as a fallen hero because of his actions at the end

of the Soviet Union and who see Putin as an openly

authoritarian figure opposed to many of the things that

Western countries want.

Second, precisely because of Yeltsin's ties with

Western leaders as well as his past services to the

dismantling of the Soviet Union and moves toward

democratization and free market economics, Western

leaders have been restrained in their reaction to a

variety of recent Russian moves that otherwise might

have drawn far more criticism and might have led to a

reduction of assistance.

Moscow's opposition to the NATO campaign in

Yugoslavia and its moves to seize Prishtina ahead of

allied forces, its increasing ties with Iran and Iraq

and other radically anti-Western countries, and its war

against Chechnya and open discrimination against people

from the Caucasus are all policies that many in the

West disagree with and oppose.

But as long as Yeltsin was in office, most

political leaders refrained from taking any genuinely

tough actions. Now that Yeltsin is gone, the situation

will change. Some diplomats and leaders will of course

argue that the West must proceed steadily and

carefully, and thus they will argue against any break.

But others will now be able to raise their voices to

argue that this is exactly the right time to send

Moscow a message.

And third, both Yeltsin and to an even larger

degree his Western supporters have put great store in

the idea that he would be the first Russian leader in

history to finish his term in office and then be

replaced through a democratic election. Now, that is

not going to happen, and the fact that it won't will

tarnish both his place in history and Moscow's standing

in the West.

As his supporters will no doubt point out,

Yeltsin's resignation is constitutional. That is, it is

provided for in the December 1993 Russian Federation

basic law that he helped to craft. But by resigning

rather than serving out his term, Yeltsin raises

questions about himself, about his successor, and about

Russia's standing as a country moving toward democracy.

Some in both Russia and the West are likely to

view Yeltsin's action as deeply political, as a way of

giving his hand-picked successor Putin the best chance

to rule Russia in the future by allowing him to call a

snap election before the boost he has received from the

initial fighting in Chechnya disappears.

But these same people are also going to ask

whether the former president did this so that Putin

could keep Yeltsin, as well as members of his family

and entourage, from facing embarrassing legal questions

in the future.

Others are going to focus on Putin himself. Last

month, one Moscow magazine featured the new acting

president on its cover as "the spymaster of all

Russians." Putin's background in the intelligence

agencies may lead some to conclude that he has staged a

kind of palace coup, pressuring Yeltsin to go now as

the price of guaranteeing the outgoing president that

he will not have to face criminal charges for his past

actions.

Even if such speculation is baseless, it seems

certain to become part of the internal debate as

Western countries decide how to deal with the new

president of Russia, a man who has defined himself only

to the extent of launching a war in the Caucasus and

denouncing the West's efforts to end the bloodletting

in Kosova.

But perhaps most importantly for the future of

east-west ties, many Western governments are certain to

view Yeltsin's resignation and, even more so, Putin's

elevation as evidence that Russia has not made as much

progress toward democracy as they had hoped or even

claimed.

These are the questions that are almost certain to be on

the minds of Western statesmen as they deliver their already

prepared messages of praise for Yeltsin and his past

contributions.

03-01-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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