RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 3, 00-01-05

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 3, 5 January 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARSON ATTACK ON ARMENIAN NEWSPAPER

[02] POLICE QUASH PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJAN

[03] GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN DOWNPLAYS CALL FOR ALLOWING

[04] ABKHAZIA OBJECTS TO UKRAINE'S INCLUSION IN UN MEDIATION

[05] ...WHICH GEORGIAN ABKHAZ LEADER WANTS AZERBAIJAN TO JOIN AS

[06] KAZAKH OPPOSITION POLITICIANS ASSESS PUTIN THREAT

[07] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY APPEALS ELECTION RESTRICTION

[08] TWO MORE TAJIK PARTIES NOMINATE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES

[09] PRESIDENT NAMED 'MAN OF THE CENTURY' IN UZBEKISTAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] CROATIAN OPPOSITION VICTORY CONFIRMED

[11] SERBIAN OPPOSITION HAILS CROATIAN VOTE

[12] HOPES FOR NEW CROATIAN POLICY IN BOSNIA

[13] SLOVENIA CALLS SELF MODEL FOR CROATIA

[14] HDZ TO PICK GRANIC FOR PRESIDENCY?

[15] RIGHTIST LEADER WANTS HDZ LEADERSHIP OUT

[16] SERBIA DECLARES FLU EPIDEMIC

[17] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WANTS 'STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP' WITH ISRAEL,

[18] ...IS DEFENSIVE ON ANTI-SEMITISM IN ROMANIA

[19] UKRAINE TO CUT OFF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES TO MOLDOVA?

[C] END NOTE

[20] Ending 'The Breakup of Russia'

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARSON ATTACK ON ARMENIAN NEWSPAPER

office of the Russian-language newspaper "Novoe vremya" was

badly damaged in a fire on 31 December, Armenian Television

and ITAR-TASS reported on 3 and 4 January. The paper's

editor, Ruben Satyan, said he had received telephone threats

prior to the arson attack. ITAR-TASS linked the incident to

the reprinting in "Novoe vremya" of an article from a Moscow

publication concerning the 27 October murder of Armenian

Premier Vazgen Sargsian. LF

[02] POLICE QUASH PROTESTS IN AZERBAIJAN

northern Belakan Raion, which borders on Georgia, dispersed

two demonstrations by several hundred local residents

demanding the resignation of local electricity department

officials, Turan reported on 29 December and 3 January. Power

supplies to Belakan Raion were discontinued around 9

December. LF

[03] GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN DOWNPLAYS CALL FOR ALLOWING

Presidential spokesman Vakhtang

Abashidze on 5 January said Tbilisi Mayor Ivane Zodelava's

proposal that the Georgian Constitution be amended to allow

one individual to serve three, rather than two, consecutive

presidential terms was a private initiative of Zodelava,

Caucasus Press reported. Zodelava, who made the proposal to

parliament the previous day, argued that no realistic

opponent will emerge to challenge incumbent Eduard

Shevardnadze either in the April 2000 presidential poll or in

2005. Opposition "United Georgia" parliament faction leader

Giorgi Targamadze told Caucasus Press on 5 January that

Zodelava's proposal amounts to a call for the establishment

of a monarchy, and is an insult to both Shevardnadze and the

Georgian nation. He said the proposal further shows that

Shevardnadze "has failed to prepare a successor during his

13-year rule." LF

[04] ABKHAZIA OBJECTS TO UKRAINE'S INCLUSION IN UN MEDIATION

The Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized Republic of

Abkhazia has issued a statement protesting against Ukraine's

incorporation into the semi-formal group of states designated

as Friends of the UN Secretary-General, which is charged with

mediating a solution to the Abkhaz conflict, Caucasus Press

reported on 4 January. The Abkhaz statement said the

inclusion of Ukraine in the grouping, which also comprises

the U.S., France, the U.K., Germany, and Russia, constitutes

a violation of the agreement reached earlier in Geneva on the

format for settlement talks. Following Ukraine's accession to

the group in December, Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministry

officials met in Kyiv to discuss Ukraine's possible

participation in the CIS peacekeeping force in Georgia.

Ukraine had first volunteered to send peacekeepers to Georgia

two years ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 July 1997). LF

[05] ...WHICH GEORGIAN ABKHAZ LEADER WANTS AZERBAIJAN TO JOIN AS

Tamaz Nadareishvili, chairman of the Abkhaz parliament

in exile which comprises the ethnic Georgian deputies to the

Abkhaz legislature elected in 1991, told Caucasus Press on 5

January that the parliament will send a delegation to Ukraine

and Azerbaijan next month to discuss the possible deployment

of Ukrainian and Azerbaijani peacekeeping forces along the

internal border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia.

Nadareishvili called for the inclusion of Azerbaijan as well

as Ukraine in the Friends of the UN Secretary-General group.

LF

[06] KAZAKH OPPOSITION POLITICIANS ASSESS PUTIN THREAT

at a press conference in Almaty on 4 January, independent

opposition politician Nurlan Amrekulov predicted that acting

Russian President Putin will pressure Kazakhstan's leadership

to allow Russian businessmen to play a more prominent role in

the country's economy, RFE/RL's bureau in the former capital

reported. Also on 4 January, Amirzhan Qosanov, a leading

member of the Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan, told

RFE/RL that he is certain Putin will misrepresent the

situation of ethnic Russians in the "near abroad," including

northern Kazakhstan, in his presidential election campaign.

LF

[07] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY APPEALS ELECTION RESTRICTION

(Bei-Bechara) Party on 4 January appealed to both the Justice

Ministry and the Central Electoral Commission to allow it to

contend the 15 seats in the lower house of the new Kyrgyz

parliament to be elected according to proportional

representation on 20 February, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

reported. The party has lost two court appeals against the

CEC's ruling that it may not contest the poll as its founding

documents do not list participation in national elections as

one of the party's objectives (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21

December 1999 and 3 January 2000). LF

[08] TWO MORE TAJIK PARTIES NOMINATE PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES

Democratic Party of Tajikistan and the Socialist Party of

Tajikistan held congresses on 4 January at which they each

selected 22 candidates to contend the 27 February election to

the lower chamber of the new parliament under the

proportional system, ITAR-TASS and Asia Plus-Blitz reported.

The Democratic Party has some 5,000 members and the Socialist

Party 30,000. LF

[09] PRESIDENT NAMED 'MAN OF THE CENTURY' IN UZBEKISTAN

Karimov was named Uzbekistan's "Man of the Century" in a poll

conducted by the BBC World Service, Interfax reported on 4

January, quoting Uzbek media. On 17 December, Interfax

reported that a nationwide Uzbek poll of 6,000 people had

also established that Karimov was the country's most popular

political figure. Most respondents expressed their intention

to vote for Karimov in the 9 January presidential election.

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] CROATIAN OPPOSITION VICTORY CONFIRMED

heads the state electoral commission, said in Zagreb on 4

January that the main opposition coalition has won in nine

out of 10 electoral districts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4

January 2000). In the new legislature, the Social Democratic-

Social Liberal coalition will have 71 seats, while an allied

coalition of four smaller centrist parties will hold 24. The

Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), which has governed since

1990, has been reduced to 40 seats. Four seats will go to

far-right parties and one to the tiny Christian Democrats.

Ramuscak added that he expects that six legislators will

represent the diaspora, which cast 85 percent of its votes

for the HDZ. The exact number of diaspora seats will depend

on the number of votes cast for the diaspora list. Final

returns are expected on 7 January. International and Croatian

election monitors reported no serious irregularities. The

outgoing government met on 4 January and promised a smooth

transition to its successor. PM

[11] SERBIAN OPPOSITION HAILS CROATIAN VOTE

the EU and OSCE said on 4 January that the opposition victory

will likely lead to greater democracy in Croatia (see "End

Note," "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2000). In Belgrade,

federal Information Minister Goran Matic said the opposition

victory came as no surprise, adding that it will lead to a

more pro-Western orientation in Croatian policy. State-run

electronic media played down the news from Zagreb, which the

regime-controlled daily "Politika" placed on page seven.

Opposition spokesman Veran Batic, however, stressed that he

hopes the Croatian vote is a harbinger of changes to come in

Serbia, the independent daily "Danas" reported. In Podgorica,

all parties except those allied to Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic greeted the news from Zagreb, a

correspondent of RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM

[12] HOPES FOR NEW CROATIAN POLICY IN BOSNIA

"Avaz," which is close to the Muslim leadership, ran the

headline on 5 January: "New Croatian government will respect

Bosnia as a [sovereign] state." Moderate Bosnian Croat leader

Kresimir Zubak said in Sarajevo the previous day that he

expects the new government to follow a significantly

different policy in Bosnia from that of its predecessor.

Former Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic said in

Banja Luka that she hopes that the new government will break

with what she called the "extremist" policies of the HDZ.

Croatian Prime Minister designate Ivica Racan told state-run

Bosnian radio that his government will have "no double

standards and deals made under the table" between the Bosnian

Croats and Zagreb. "Bosnian Croats will have to perceive

Bosnia as their home...and we will support them in this," AP

quoted him as saying. PM

[13] SLOVENIA CALLS SELF MODEL FOR CROATIA

Drnovsek said in Ljubljana that the Croatian election results

were not unexpected and signify the start of a new era for

that country, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 5

January. He added that Slovenia's experience in

democratization and in seeking Euro-Atlantic integration is a

good model for Croatia. PM

[14] HDZ TO PICK GRANIC FOR PRESIDENCY?

nominated moderate Foreign Minister Mate Granic as the

party's candidate for the presidency in the 24 January

elections. Hard-line candidate Vladimir Seks withdrew his

name from the vote, which was 13 for Granic with three

invalid ballots, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 4

January. The party's steering committee is expected to make

the final decision on 5 January. Previous opinion polls

suggested that Granic is the only HDZ candidate with a chance

of defeating Drazen Budisa, who represents the main

opposition coalition. Following the opposition's

parliamentary victory, however, Budisa stressed that he is

confident that he can defeat Granic. The Zagreb HDZ list that

Granic headed in the parliamentary vote was badly defeated by

the opposition and took only 21 percent of the vote. PM

[15] RIGHTIST LEADER WANTS HDZ LEADERSHIP OUT

on 4 January, far-right HDZ leader Branimir Glavas demanded

that the party's 16-member presidency resign following the

electoral debacle the previous day. He stressed that a new

party congress must be held to select new leaders, primarily

from among people active at the local level. Glavas achieved

fame as a powerful local warlord in the 1991 conflict with

the Serbs in a way that prompted British journalist Misha

Glenny to dub him a "serial killer in fatigues." Glavas was

subsequently widely known as the only local leader in Croatia

who was even feared by late President Franjo Tudjman. PM

[16] SERBIA DECLARES FLU EPIDEMIC

in Belgrade on 5 January that influenza has reached

"epidemic" proportions in Serbia. The ministry banned visits

to flu patients in hospitals, AP reported. More than 10,000

people in Montenegro have also contracted the virus. "Danas"

reported an outbreak of hepatitis in the northern Kosova town

of Mitrovica. PM

[17] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WANTS 'STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP' WITH ISRAEL,

Visiting Romanian President Emil Constantinescu on

4 January told acting Israeli prime minister Itzhak Mordechai

that Romania, Israel, and Turkey should set up a "strategic

partnership," an RFE/RL correspondent in Jerusalem reported.

Mordechai is filling in for Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who is

in the U.S. for peace talks with Syria. Mordechai said that

during his tenure as defense minister in former Prime

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet, Israel and Romania had

intensified military collaboration. Constantinescu also

brought up the problems of some 50,000 Romanian workers in

Israel, who have often complained about discrimination and

poor employment conditions. He proposed a bilateral agreement

to allow Romanian and Israeli workers to pay into their

pensions while working in the other country. MS

[18] ...IS DEFENSIVE ON ANTI-SEMITISM IN ROMANIA

journalists of the Romanian-language press in Israel,

Constantinescu said that certain Romanian political parties,

such as the Greater Romania Party, have adopted anti-Semitic

postures and that other political groups "openly or covertly

collaborate with [such parties] out of electoral

considerations or considerations linked with the struggle for

power." The comments came one day after Constantinescu

described anti-Semitism as a "marginal phenomenon" in Romania

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 January 2000). He also admitted

that Romania's civil society structures prefer to ignore the

phenomenon of xenophobic publications, "believing that if

they do so, the phenomenon does not exist," Mediafax

reported. Knesset chairman Avraham Burg raised the issue of

confiscated Jewish property in Romania with Constantinescu.

Constantinescu said the problem must be solved within

Romania's general framework for restitution. MS

[19] UKRAINE TO CUT OFF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES TO MOLDOVA?

has informed the Moldovan state electricity company that it

may soon have to stop electricity deliveries to Moldova due

to its own problems with gas deliveries from Russia, an

official of the Moldtranselectro company said on 4 January.

Moldova recently increased its electricity imports from

Ukraine and Romania. The move came after Gazprom drastically

reduced gas deliveries to Moldova because Chisinau was unable

to meet debt payments. Romania has also warned Moldova that

it may cut off electricity supplies on 6 January because

Chisinau is failing to make payments on a $10 million debt,

ITAR-TASS reported. MS

[C] END NOTE

[20] Ending 'The Breakup of Russia'

Vladimir Putin's latest rationale for Moscow's

campaign in Chechnya -- to "bring about the end of the

breakup of Russia" -- raises some disturbing questions

about the kind of policies he may try to pursue as acting

president of the Russian Federation.

During a visit to Russian-controlled regions of

Chechnya on New Year's Day, Putin told Russian soldiers

that their campaign against the Chechens is "not simply

about restoring honor and dignity to the country."

Rather, he continued, "it is about how to bring about the

end of the breakup of Russia."

Most immediately, these remarks call into question

the claims Putin and his supporters have made in the past

about this conflict. Until last weekend, he had insisted

that the conflict was about extirpating "extremists" and

"terrorists," goals which many Western leaders have found

difficult to oppose even when they are appalled by the

way Russian forces have set about achieving that

objective.

By shifting his stance so quickly and completely,

Putin has unintentionally invited those governments to

re-examine both his earlier claims about the conflict and

their response to it. And he has equally unintentionally

raised questions on only his second day in office as to

how reliable a partner he may be in any negotiations with

Western governments.

But as significant as these consequences may prove

in the future, Putin's words on this occasion clearly

have even more serious implications for the Russian

Federation, for its relationship with its neighbors, and

hence for the world as a whole.

For the Russian Federation, Putin's new position on

Chechnya points to a more authoritarian future, one in

which the reconstitution of state authority and the

defense of a particular territory takes precedence over

any move toward greater freedom and democracy.

As all polls show, Putin's popularity in the Russian

Federation reflects the longing of many Russians for a

stronger and more effective state capable of responding

quickly and harshly to any challenge -- be it from often

despised ethnic minorities, criminal groups, or Western

governments.

But a state reconstituted on the basis of such

expectations is unlikely to be the peaceful and liberal

democratic regime that many in both Russia and the West

have been hoping for.

Under such leadership, the Russian Federation could

become an increasingly authoritarian Rechtstaat, a regime

in which the state is capable of enforcing the laws it

issues rather than responding to the demands of

population in whose name it rules.

For many Russians who have lived through the

lawlessness of the Yeltsin years as well as for Western

business interests there, such a state might appear to be

a major improvement on current conditions.

But precisely because such a regime is likely to

have to seek support through nationalist appeals, it

might rapidly become something much less attractive and

ever more nationalistic. Should that happen, the Putin

government might move on from its current campaign

against "persons of the Caucasus nationality" to open and

state-sponsored discrimination against other ethnic and

religious groups not judged by Putin's brand of Russian

nationalists to be truly Russian.

For the countries surrounding the Russian Federation

-- especially the 11 former Soviet republics and three

Baltic countries -- Putin's new position is, if anything,

even more threatening.

At a minimum, the nationalistic Russia Putin's

policies point to almost certainly will be far more

difficult to get along with. But many in these countries

are likely to be especially concerned that the Russian

nationalist resurgence he is sponsoring will not stop at

the borders of the Russian Federation.

Even the Yeltsin government showed itself willing to

exploit the presence of more than 20 million ethnic

Russians in these states to pressure them into a special

relationship with Moscow. Putin will certainly do no less

and is quite likely to do a great deal more, thus further

"ethnicizing" politics in many of these countries and

undermining stability in some of them.

But Putin's words on New Year's Day are potentially

more ominous for the non-Russian countries. Many Russians

are likely to view his words less as a call to firm up

the borders of the Russian Federation, an entity many of

them do not see as their country, than as a demand for a

revision of the results of 1991.

Putin may thus push even harder for a Russian

Federation union with Belarus than Yeltsin did and may

also put more pressure on the members of the Commonwealth

of Independent States to defer to Moscow's interests.

Above all, Putin's new stance may pose a major

concern for the international community. One of the bases

of Putin's popularity has been his willingness, even

eagerness, to dismiss Western criticism of his policies

in Chechnya, a dismissal underlined by his assertion last

month that Russia should not act as if it now has no

enemies.

Such a leader seems an unlikely candidate for

serious talks with the West anytime soon, even though

Russia's economic problems may lead him to change his

tone at least enough to extract more resources from

Western governments who do not want to see the situation

in Russia get even worse.

But far more than Yeltsin, Putin will find it hard to

make any broader deals with the West. And consequently, his

words about defending the borders of Russia may have the

effect of creating precisely those dividing lines in Europe

that leaders in both Moscow and the West have said they hope

to avoid.

05-01-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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