RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 27, 00-02-08

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 27, 8 February 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN WAR VETERANS WANT FINAL SAY ON KARABAKH PEACE

[02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY HQ ATTACKED

[03] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR NEXT TURKIC SUMMIT

[04] HOSTAGE EXCHANGE IN GEORGIA IN JEOPARDY

[05] WORKERS' MOVEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN CALLS FOR GENERAL STRIKE

[06] SLAVS IN KAZAKHSTAN ADVOCATE ACCESSION TO RUSSIA-BELARUS

[07] 'ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS' DETAINED IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

[08] U.S. WATCHDOG CRITICIZES KYRGYZ ELECTION PREPARATIONS

[09] NEW POLITICAL PARTY FOUNDED IN KYRGYZSTAN

[10] TEACHERS IN KYRGYZSTAN STILL OWED 1998 SALARIES

[11] TWO POLICE SHOT DEAD AT ELECTION RALLY IN TAJIKISTAN

[12] MORE EXPLOSIONS IN DUSHANBE

[13] PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF TAJIK CENSUS RELEASED

[14] TURKMENISTAN POSTPONES SIGNING OF PSA WITH SHELL

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] YUGOSLAV DEFENSE MINISTER SHOT DEAD

[16] SPECULATION ABOUNDS ON BULATOVIC MURDER

[17] MESIC WINS CROATIAN PRESIDENCY

[18] GRANIC SEEKS TO 'TRANSFORM' DEFEATED CROATIAN PARTY

[19] KEY CROATIAN UNDERWORLD FIGURE ARRESTED

[20] MORE BOSNIAN ELECTRICITY FOR MONTENEGRO

[21] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT STARTS BRITISH VISIT

[22] ROMANIA, BULGARIA, REACH COMPROMISE ON DANUBE BRIDGE

[23] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS CONSOLIDATE TARACLIA VICTORY

[24] BULGARIA URGES AUSTRIA NOT TO BLOCK EU BID

[C] END NOTE

[25] THE VIKINGS MAKE A COMEBACK?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN WAR VETERANS WANT FINAL SAY ON KARABAKH PEACE

Meeting last weekend, the board of the Yerkrapah

union of veterans of the Karabakh war warned that they will

not accept any settlement of the Karabakh conflict that

entails the return to Azerbaijani jurisdiction of occupied

Azerbaijani territories bordering on the unrecognized

Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported

on 7 February. "We will not allow anybody to decide on the

fate of Armenia and Artsakh without asking Yerkrapah's and

the people's opinion," union chairman Manvel Grigorian said.

Prime Minister Aram Sargsian, who attended the meeting, said,

"Rest assured that on this issue my views can't be different

from yours. I can't accept a decision that you wouldn't like,

especially on the question of [occupied] lands." Deputy

parliamentary speaker Tigran Torosian told RFE/RL on 7

February that the Miasnutiun parliament majority faction,

which is dominated by Yerkrapah's political wing, the

Republican Party of Armenia, agrees with Yerkrapah that a

future peace deal must be put to public debate. LF

[02] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY HQ ATTACKED

with clubs attacked the Baku headquarters of the opposition

Musavat party and its newspaper, "Yeni Musavat," on 7

February, breaking down doors and smashing windows, Turan and

Reuters reported. The attackers seized or damaged the

equipment of cameramen and photographers who arrived at the

scene. Police summoned to the building failed to intervene.

The vandals, who came from a village in the exclave of

Nakhichevan, were protesting the publication in "Yeni

Musavat" of materials about official corruption in the

exclave. The author of those articles, Elbey Hasanli, has

been arrested, according to Russian agencies. Musavat issued

a statement later on 7 February calling for his release.

Musavat Party Chairman Isa Gambar blamed Azerbaijani

President Heidar Aliev for the incident, saying that the

Azerbaijani authorities had known in advance that it was

planned but failed to prevent it. LF

[03] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR NEXT TURKIC SUMMIT

of Turcophone states will take place in Baku on 8 April,

ITAR-TASS reported on 7 February. Azerbaijan's President

Aliev has ordered the creation of a special state commission,

which he will chair, to prepare for that meeting. The summit

was originally scheduled for June 1999 but was postponed to

allow Aliev time to recuperate from heart bypass surgery (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 10 June 1999). LF

[04] HOSTAGE EXCHANGE IN GEORGIA IN JEOPARDY

to the Abkhaz authorities the bodies of two Abkhaz customs

officials killed in a shootout in western Georgia last month

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February 2000), Georgia is now

refusing to release another two Abkhaz taken prisoner in that

incident until three Georgians held hostage in Abkhazia are

freed, Caucasus Press reported on 8 February, citing the

Georgia-based Abkhaz Security Ministry in exile. The three

Georgians were taken prisoner during the fighting in

Abkhazia's Gali raion in May 1998, and the relatives of one

of them subsequently seized two Abkhaz whom they intended to

trade for his release. Under the agreement signed in Sukhum

on 3 February, the governments of Georgia and Abkhazia agreed

on the release of all prisoners and hostages held by both

sides, but the Abkhaz authorities subsequently claimed that

some of the Georgians in question are convicted war criminals

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 4 and 7 February 2000). LF

[05] WORKERS' MOVEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN CALLS FOR GENERAL STRIKE

Kazakhstan Workers' Movement leader Madel Ismailov called for

a nationwide protest action on 29 February to demand the

annulment of the 1995 presidential decree stipulating the

preconditions for holding mass gatherings. Ismailov argued

that the requirement that organizers of mass gatherings first

obtain permission from local authorities to hold such

meetings constitutes a violation of the constitutionally-

guaranteed right to convene unarmed peaceful demonstrations.

LF

[06] SLAVS IN KAZAKHSTAN ADVOCATE ACCESSION TO RUSSIA-BELARUS

Meeting on 6 February in Almaty, representatives of

the LAD movement, Kazakhstan's Cossacks, and the Communist

Party of Kazakhstan adopted an open letter to Kazakhstan's

President Nursultan Nazarbaev advocating that Kazakhstan join

the Russia-Belarus Union, RFE/RL's correspondent in the

former capital reported. They asked Nazarbaev to call a

nationwide referendum on the issue. And they also appealed to

public organizations asking them to collect signatures in

support of their initiative. An article published on 26

January in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" argued that while the

Russia-Belarus Union state cannot restore the level of

political and economic unity that characterized the USSR, the

Eurasian Union, first proposed by Nazarbaev in 1994, could do

so. The CIS, the Russia-Belarus Union, and the CIS Customs

Union could ultimately merge to create such a Eurasian Union,

the newspaper suggested. LF

[07] 'ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS' DETAINED IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

members of the radical Islamist Khizbut Tahrir Movement were

detained over the past week in southern Kyrgyzstan and

several more in neighboring Jalalabad oblast, RFE/RL's

Bishkek bureau reported. Interfax put the total number of

arrests at 13. The detainees were distributing leaflets

critical of Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov and calling

for "changing the constitutional order" in the states of

Central Asia, Interfax and RFE/RL reported. LF

[08] U.S. WATCHDOG CRITICIZES KYRGYZ ELECTION PREPARATIONS

10-page report released on 4 February, a mission from the

National Democratic Institute warns that recent actions by

all three branches of power in Kyrgyzstan suggest that the 20

February parliamentary elections are unlikely to be free,

fair, and democratic, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported.

Specifically, the report notes the Justice Ministry's

refusal, upheld in court, to register four popular parties to

contest the poll and law suits brought against two deputies

of the present parliament who are running for re-election.

The report also notes that existing problems could be

resolved before the elections if the Kyrgyz government

observes the constitution, the spirit of the new election

law, and international norms and standards. LF

[09] NEW POLITICAL PARTY FOUNDED IN KYRGYZSTAN

participated in the founding congress on 5 February of a new

political party named Erk, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported.

The head of the party's organizing committee, Adyl Kasymov,

described its political orientation as "center-rightist." He

said one of its primary objectives will be to assist young

people who are seeking to acquire plots of land to build

their own homes. Homeless young people in Bishkek staged

several demonstrations last year to demand that the city

authorities allow them to build homes on waste ground on the

city outskirts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 June and 10 August

1999). LF

[10] TEACHERS IN KYRGYZSTAN STILL OWED 1998 SALARIES

Ministry of Education, Science, and Culture has admitted that

the country's teachers are owed some 62 million soms (about

$1.3 million) in salary arrears for 1999, RFE/RL's Bishkek

bureau reported on 6 February. Some teachers have still not

received their salaries for 1998. LF

[11] TWO POLICE SHOT DEAD AT ELECTION RALLY IN TAJIKISTAN

Nuri shot and fatally wounded two Tajik police officials at

an election rally in the northern town of Mastchoh on 6

February, Asia Plus-Blitz reported. Nuri told journalists the

following day that the police had opened fire when the

bodyguards resisted their efforts to disarm them, while the

Tajik Interior Ministry claimed that the bodyguards fired

first. Interfax quoted Nuri as saying he is "satisfied" with

the current social and political situation in the country. He

predicted that his party will poll 30-35 percent of the vote

in the 27 February elections to the lower chamber of the new

parliament. LF

[12] MORE EXPLOSIONS IN DUSHANBE

quick succession in central Dushanbe on the evening of 7

February, causing minor damage to buildings but no injuries.

Investigators have detained one suspect, according to

Interfax. LF

[13] PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF TAJIK CENSUS RELEASED

of Tajikistan currently stands at 6,105,300, which exceeds

the count at the last census in 1989 by 1 million but is less

than the 6.3 million the authorities had estimated, ITAR-TASS

reported on 7 February, quoting State Statistical Agency

Director Khabib Gaibullaev. The preliminary figure suggests

that despite the outmigration of some 437,000 people (mostly

ethnic Russians) in the period between the two censuses,

Tajikistan has the world's highest rate of population growth.

In the 1970s and 1980s, the Tajik SSR had the highest

birthrate of any Soviet republic. The exodus of ethnic

Russians is the primary reason why Dushanbe's population has

decreased by some 60,000 and now totals 536,000, Gaibullaev

said. He added that almost 20 percent of all homes in the

capital are currently standing empty. LF

[14] TURKMENISTAN POSTPONES SIGNING OF PSA WITH SHELL

the Turkmen government have postponed indefinitely the

signing of a production-sharing agreement on extracting gas

from three deposits in eastern Turkmenistan, Interfax

reported on 7 February, quoting an unnamed Turkmen government

official. The signing of that document had originally

scheduled been for 20 February. The official added that talks

between the two sides on the terms of the agreement will

continue. The gas in question is earmarked for export via the

proposed Trans-Caspian pipeline. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[15] YUGOSLAV DEFENSE MINISTER SHOT DEAD

Pavle Bulatovic and wounded two other people as they were

having dinner in the restaurant of a Belgrade stadium on 7

February. The minister, who had occupied that post since

1993, died of his wounds shortly afterward in a military

hospital. The government then went into an emergency session

and issued a statement in which it praised Bulatovic and his

work as defense minister. The government condemned the

assassination as a "terrorist act" and pledged "full support

to the relevant state organs in their uncompromising struggle

against terrorism." Bulatovic was a member of Montenegro's

Socialist People's Party (SNP), which supports Yugoslav

President Slobodan Milosevic. The minister was a close ally

of federal Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic, who is also of an

SNP member. The two men were not related. PM

[16] SPECULATION ABOUNDS ON BULATOVIC MURDER

Bulatovic came just three weeks after the gangland-style

slaying of another Milosevic supporter, namely warlord Zeljko

Raznatovic Arkan (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 18 January

2000). Bulatovic, however, was not a prominent leader but

rather "an apparatchik," the BBC's Serbian Service commented.

His death therefore has at best a "symbolic significance"

from a political perspective. Some speculation centers on

possible links between his death and growing tensions between

Milosevic and the reformist leaders in Montenegro. Other

observers note that Bulatovic's dinner partners were

businessmen and suggest that his death may have been linked

to Belgrade's murky world in which business, politics, and

the underworld meet. One Montenegrin commentator told

London's "The Guardian" that a "country in which the defense

minister was killed like that in a restaurant is a real

banana republic." PM

[17] MESIC WINS CROATIAN PRESIDENCY

coalition of four small parties defeated Drazen Budisa of the

larger two-party coalition in the run-off election on 7

February. Mesic took some 56 percent of the votes, while

Budisa gained some 43 percent. Budisa conceded defeat soon

after the first returns became public. The dapper and

outspoken Mesic pledged to be "the president of all citizens

of the Republic of Croatia" and to speed up his country's

integration into the EU and NATO. He told reporters: "I would

sum up our problem in three words: employment, employment,

and employment," Reuters reported. Observers note that his

election comes as a deep disappointment to ethnic Croatian

hard-liners in Herzegovina, whose generous subsidies he has

pledged to cut off or reduce. Mesic was a prominent

politician in the last years of the former Yugoslavia but has

since played a relatively minor role in Croatian politics. He

is married to a woman of Serbian-Ukrainian background, whose

family was killed by the pro-Axis regime during World War II.

PM

[18] GRANIC SEEKS TO 'TRANSFORM' DEFEATED CROATIAN PARTY

Granic, a former Croatian foreign minister who was defeated

in the first round of the presidential elections, told

"Vjesnik" of 8 February that he does not intend to found a

Christian-democratic party (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February

2000). He added that "the era of the classic Christian-

democratic parties has passed." Granic argued that his main

goal is to "radically transform" the Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ), which governed from 1990 to 2000, into a

"modern, European democratic party of the center." PM

[19] KEY CROATIAN UNDERWORLD FIGURE ARRESTED

Interpol said in a statement on 7 February that German police

arrested Zoran Petrovic Ivica, who is regarded as a major

figure in the Croatian underworld. He is wanted in Zagreb for

several crimes, including murder. PM

[20] MORE BOSNIAN ELECTRICITY FOR MONTENEGRO

is prime minister of the mainly Muslim and Croatian Bosnian

federation, signed an agreement in Herceg Novi with

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic. According to the

text, Bosnia will continue to supply electric power to

Montenegro until the end of 2000. Observers note that the

reform-minded government in Podgorica has developed good

relations with Sarajevo since President Milo Djukanovic took

office in early 1998. PM

[21] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT STARTS BRITISH VISIT

is to be received at Buckingham Palace on 8 February and will

also conduct talks with British Premier Tony Blair, Romanian

radio reported. The previous day, Constantinescu met with

Foreign Affairs Secretary Robin Cook, Defense Secretary Geoff

Horn, and International Development Secretary Clare Short to

discuss his country's bid for integration into European and

Atlantic structures and ways of boosting British investments

in Romania. Constantinescu told a Royal Institute of

International Affairs forum that Romania backs the U.K. and

the German approach that the EU must be a "Europe of nations"

in which each country must be able to safeguard its own

identity. MS

[22] ROMANIA, BULGARIA, REACH COMPROMISE ON DANUBE BRIDGE

meeting in Brussels attended by EU Commissioner for

Enlargement Guenter Verheugen, Bulgaria and Romania on 7

February agreed to settle their long-standing dispute about

the construction of a second bridge over the River Danube, an

RFE/RL correspondent in Brussels reported. Romanian

Transportation Minister Traian Basescu said after the meeting

that his country will not participate in financing the

project because it needs to direct all EU investments toward

building its own infrastructure, but he noted that Romania

may agree to use some funds for the construction of roads

leading to the bridge. Bulgaria is to finance the

construction alone, possibly securing funding from the Balkan

Stability Pact and other sources. The two countries' premiers

are to decide by 20 March where the bridge is to be located.

MS

[23] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS CONSOLIDATE TARACLIA VICTORY

of the four mayors elected in the 6 February local election

runoffs in the Taraclia district are members of the Party of

Moldovan Communists (PCM), while the fourth is an

independent. The local elections have thus produced a total

of six mayors from the PCM, two from the Democratic Agrarian

Party, and two independents, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau

reported. MS

[24] BULGARIA URGES AUSTRIA NOT TO BLOCK EU BID

Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel made available to

Reuters on 7 February, Foreign Minster Nadezhda Mihailova

urged Schuessel "to be the guarantor that your government

will not obstruct EU enlargement to the east." Mihailova also

asked him to ensure that the rights of thousands of

Bulgarians living in Austria are not violated and that

Austria will not reject Bulgaria's efforts to have the

country taken off the list of states whose citizens are

restricted by the Schengen accords in traveling within the

EU. MS

[C] END NOTE

[25] THE VIKINGS MAKE A COMEBACK?

The acquisition by Nordic banking giant MeritaNordbanken

of French bank Societe Generale's operations in Latvia and

Lithuania in early January is the latest of several examples

pointing to the economic monopoly that the rich Nordic states

are securing over their less affluent Baltic neighbors. Since

the restoration of independence more than eight years ago,

the Nordic countries--especially Sweden and Finland--have

come to play a major role in the economies of Estonia,

Latvia, and Lithuania. However, concern is growing among

local observers that this perceived Nordic dominance in the

Baltics has scared off other foreign investors.

Among the economic sectors, the Nordic role in the

Baltics is perhaps most visible in banking.

MeritaNordbanken's recent acquisition of Societe Generale

branches comes after several years of Nordic banks'

acquisitions in the Baltics. Sweden's ForeningsSparbanken

(Swedbank) took over the largest banking establishment in the

Baltics, Hansapank, in 1998. Not to be outdone, Sweden's

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) took controlling stakes

in large banks in each of the three Baltic states: Uhispank

in Estonia, Unibanka in Latvia, and Vilniaus Bankas in

Lithuania. The Baltic presence of the two Swedish banks

expanded through several acquisitions and mergers.

Several upcoming events in 2000 could allow Nordic banks

to consolidate their hold over the Baltic banking sector.

Lithuania is set to sell off stakes in its two remaining

large state-owned banks, Zemes Ukio Bankas (Agricultural

Bank) and market leader Taupomasis Bankas (Savings Bank).

Latvia's banking market is poised for further consolidation,

while the Estonian Central Bank has hinted it is willing to

sell its large stake in the country's third-largest bank,

Optiva Pank.

In many other sectors, Nordic companies already have

almost complete control, especially in public utilities. The

three fixed-line telephone operators in the Baltics are

controlled by their Nordic counterparts in Finland and

Sweden. Energy companies such as Sweden's state-owned

Vattenfall continue to express interest in the Baltic region.

Vattenfall already owns several local heating and electric

distributors and has been frantically purchasing all free-

floating shares in Lithuania's power utility Lietuvos

Energija on the Vilnius Bourse.

However, the impact is strongest in Estonia, the country

closest to both Finland and Sweden. Most of Estonia's larger

companies have either a Finnish or Swedish owner or strategic

investor. One of Estonia's most successful companies, the

seatbelt maker Norma, was taken over by a Swedish company in

late 1999. Estonia's main meatpacking company, Rakvere

Lihakombinaat, is Finnish-owned, while the textiles giant

Kreenholm in Narva was sold to the Swedes many years ago.

So far this year there have already been two major

acquisitions. Skanska, one of the largest construction

companies in the world, purchased Estonia's EMV and

immediately announced that it wants to move the stock off the

Tallinn Bourse in order to assume 100 percent ownership.

Also, a majority stake in Estonia's leading distillery Liviko

was purchased by Finnish alcohol monopoly Remedia, which

already owns the Estonian distillery Ofelia. The concern that

the majority of Estonia's most successful companies will soon

be foreign-owned increased when Finnish dairy company Valio

recently announced its interest in acquiring Estonia's

biggest dairy conglomerate, United Dairies.

Despite some large investments by other European and

North American businesses, the perceived dominance of Nordic

companies in the Baltics serves to dampen the interest of

firms from elsewhere. U.S. and Canadian companies have made

inroads in the energy sector of all three Baltic countries

but seem less interested in other sectors. German companies

have slowly increased their investment in the region, most

notably in the gas sector. Other European countries have been

less active, either because of a lack of interest or the

perception that the Baltics are the Nordic countries'

backyard.

The acquisition of Societe Generale's operations in the

Baltics helps to strengthen such a perception. Latvia's

Commercial Banking Association President Teodors Tverijons

noted that "the expansion of the Scandinavian banks [into the

Baltics] is growing because there are a lot more Finnish,

Swedish, and Norwegian companies here than French companies."

And, pointing to a Catch-22 situation, he added that it makes

"no sense" for a French bank to open a branch in Latvia if

there are no French companies there.

08-02-00

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URL: http://www.rferl.org

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