Browse through our Interesting Nodes on the Environment A)? GHT="50">
Compact version
Today's Suggestion
Read The "Macedonian Question" (by Maria Nystazopoulou-Pelekidou)
HomeAbout HR-NetNewsWeb SitesDocumentsOnline HelpUsage InformationContact us
Monday, 20 January 2020
 
News
  Latest News (All)
     From Greece
     From Cyprus
     From Europe
     From Balkans
     From Turkey
     From USA
  Announcements
  World Press
  News Archives
Web Sites
  Hosted
  Mirrored
  Interesting Nodes
Documents
  Special Topics
  Treaties, Conventions
  Constitutions
  U.S. Agencies
  Cyprus Problem
  Other
Services
  Personal NewsPaper
  Greek Fonts
  Tools
  F.A.Q.
 

RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 99, 00-05-23

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 99, 23 May 2000


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN PREMIER PLEDGES CONTINUITY
  • [02] ARMENIA, IRAN DISCUSS REGIONAL SECURITY
  • [03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ LEADERS SEEK TO PREVENT ESCALATION
  • [04] GEORGIAN NGOS CALL FOR PROSECUTOR'S RESIGNATION
  • [05] NEW KAZAKH ACTING CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF APPOINTED
  • [06] TAJIK DIPLOMATS IMPLICATED IN DRUG SMUGGLING TO KAZAKHSTAN
  • [07] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEBATES NEW LANGUAGE BILL
  • [08] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY ELECTS CHAIRMAN

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [09] OPPOSITION CALLS BELGRADE RALLY
  • [10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO CHANGE FOCUS?
  • [11] OTPOR SEEKS OFFICIAL REGISTRATION
  • [12] OSCE: SERBIAN REGIME THREATENS ITS REPRESENTATIVES
  • [13] SERBIAN JOURNALIST REARRESTED FOR 'ESPIONAGE'
  • [14] EU HELP FOR MONTENEGRO
  • [15] THACI: INDEPENDENT KOSOVA STILL THE GOAL
  • [16] UNHCR SAYS 150,000 NON-SERBS FLED KOSOVA
  • [17] BELGRADE TURNS BACK MACEDONIANS WITH UNMIK VISAS
  • [18] CONVICTED BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINAL TESTIFIES AGAINST COMMANDER
  • [19] COOK SLAMS BOSNIAN LEADERS
  • [20] YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR BOSNIAN JOINT PREMIER
  • [21] ROMANIAN PREMIER STARTS U.S. VISIT
  • [22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION TO BASIC TREATY WITH MOLDOVA GROWING...
  • [23] ...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR TREATY WITH RUSSIA
  • [24] ROMANIA TO TEMPORARILY CLOSE POLLUTING PLANT
  • [25] EBRD DOUBTFUL ABOUT FEASIBILITY OF DANUBE BRIDGE FINANCING
  • [26] BULGARIAN COALITION OPPOSES INCREASED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [27] JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN PREMIER PLEDGES CONTINUITY

    Speaking at his first

    press conference since his 12 May nomination as prime

    minister, Andranik Markarian said in Yerevan on 22 May that

    the policies pursued by his cabinet will not differ radically

    from those of previous governments, Reuters and RFE/RL's

    Yerevan bureau reported. Markarian pledged to wage a

    merciless struggle against corruption and thefts of state

    property and to ensure the "strictest discipline" within the

    cabinet as well as close cooperation between the president,

    government, and parliament. He also affirmed that "reform

    should be the main essence of economic change." LF

    [02] ARMENIA, IRAN DISCUSS REGIONAL SECURITY

    Iranian Deputy

    Foreign Minister Morteza Sarmadi discussed the proposed South

    Caucasus security system during a recent meeting in Yerevan

    with Armenian President Robert Kocharian, RFE/RL's bureau in

    the Armenian capital reported on 22 May. Sarmadi told

    journalists on 21 May that Tehran believes that "at the

    initial stage," such a system should include only the

    countries of the region but that once that system has

    developed, other states could join. Kocharian had proposed in

    Tbilisi in March that the three South Caucasus states,

    together with Russia, Turkey, Iran, the U.S., and the EU,

    should be members of such a system (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30

    March 2000). Sarmadi added that Kocharian had assured him

    that Yerevan will never agree to resolving the Karabakh

    conflict by means of an exchange of territory that entailed

    ceding its southern district of Meghri, which borders on

    Iran. LF

    [03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ LEADERS SEEK TO PREVENT ESCALATION

    During a

    22 May telephone conversation, Eduard Shevardnadze and

    Vladislav Ardzinba assured each other of their shared desire

    to avoid a new outbreak of hostilities in southern Abkhazia,

    Caucasus Press reported on 23 May. The Georgian newspaper

    "Dilis gazeti" on 16 May had quoted the leader of the

    Georgia's White Legion guerrilla movement as threatening

    reprisals in Abkhazia to mark the 26 May anniversary of

    Georgia's 1918 declaration of independence. A representative

    of the Abkhaz government in exile, which is composed of

    ethnic Georgian officials who fled Abkhazia during the 1992-

    1993 war, claimed on 22 May that the Abkhaz authorities had

    sent 180 guerrillas to Gali Raion in southern Abkhazia, and

    parliament deputy speaker Vakhtang Kolbaya said the same day

    that ethnic Georgians are fleeing the district in

    anticipation of new fighting. LF

    [04] GEORGIAN NGOS CALL FOR PROSECUTOR'S RESIGNATION

    Students and

    representatives of 27 Georgian NGOs staged a demonstration on

    22 May outside the state chancellery in Tbilisi to demand the

    resignation of Prosecutor-General Djamlet Babilashvili and

    his deputy, Anzor Baluashvili, Caucasus Press reported. The

    demonstrators accuse the two officials of having warned

    television journalist Akaki Gogichaishvili to leave Georgia

    or risk being murdered following programs Gogichaishvili

    aired on official corruption (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 May

    2000). Babilashvili told journalists in Tbilisi on 22 May

    that his office has no reason to threaten Gogichaishvili and

    that the demands for his resignation are unfounded. Also on

    22 May, President Shevardnadze ordered the Interior and

    Security Ministries to take all necessary measures to protect

    Gogichaishvili and his family. LF

    [05] NEW KAZAKH ACTING CHIEF OF GENERAL STAFF APPOINTED

    Deputy

    Chief of General Staff Malik Saparov has been promoted to

    acting chief of General Staff, Interfax reported on 22 May,

    citing the Kazakh Defense Ministry. He replaces Bakhytzhan

    Ertaev, who was appointed commander of the first army corps

    in Semipalatinsk last week. Ertaev had been tried and

    acquitted earlier this year on charges of arranging the

    illegal sale of 40 decommissioned MiG fighters to North Korea

    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 February 2000). LF

    [06] TAJIK DIPLOMATS IMPLICATED IN DRUG SMUGGLING TO KAZAKHSTAN

    Kazakh security officials impounded 62 kilograms of heroin

    worth some $1 million, together with $54,000 in cash and a

    bank check for 1.2 million British pounds ($1.78 million),

    from two cars intercepted near Almaty on 21 May, Reuters and

    Interfax reported. One of the vehicles belongs to

    Tajikistan's Ambassador to Kazakhstan Sadulajan Nigmatov.

    Interfax quoted Kazakh security officials as saying that the

    heroin was to be delivered to the head of the Tajik trade

    mission in Almaty. Five Tajiks have been arrested. ITAR-TASS

    on 22 May quoted the Tajik Foreign Ministry as denying any

    knowledge of the incident. LF

    [07] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEBATES NEW LANGUAGE BILL

    The lower house

    of the parliament began debating a new state language bill on

    22 May, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. The new draft

    reportedly makes no mention of giving Russian the status of

    an official state language, as President Askar Akaev had

    proposed to both chambers of parliament last month (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 April 2000). But it does stipulate that

    no one should be discriminated against for the inability to

    speak Kyrgyz, which is currently the sole state language. The

    country's language legislation is one of the reasons cited by

    ethnic Russians for leaving Kyrgyzstan. LF

    [08] NEW KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY ELECTS CHAIRMAN

    The Erkindik

    (Freedom) Party, which split several months ago from the

    Erkin Kyrgyzstan (Free Kyrgyzstan) party, held its founding

    congress in Bishkek on 21 May and elected as its chairman

    Topchubek Turgunaliev, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 February 2000). Turgunaliev, who had

    founded Erkin Kyrgyzstan in 1990, has served two prison

    sentences in recent years on charges of insulting President

    Akaev. LF


    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [09] OPPOSITION CALLS BELGRADE RALLY

    Leaders of several

    opposition parties appealed in a statement on 22 May to

    people throughout Serbia to attend a rally in Belgrade on 27

    May. The meeting's slogan will be: "For Serbia, without

    terror and fear--for the freedom of Studio B [Television] and

    other media," AP reported. The statement added that the

    "resumption of terror against citizens and violence against

    media [will] result in a clear radicalization of our

    citizens, who increasingly oppose such behavior by the

    regime." Elsewhere, lawyer Borivoje Borovic said that a

    Belgrade court has sentenced some 31 persons to prison terms

    ranging from between 25 to 30 days for their participation in

    recent opposition rallies. PM

    [10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO CHANGE FOCUS?

    Some 500 people turned

    out for a protest rally in Belgrade on 22 May, Reuters

    reported. Another 5,000 attended a rally in Cacak, where

    Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic spoke against the

    tough measures the police use toward demonstrators (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2000). Christian Democratic leader

    Vladan Batic said in Belgrade that the opposition and the

    Otpor (Resistance) student movement are considering changing

    the focus of their protests from public rallies to

    unspecified forms of civil disobedience. Elsewhere, Vladimir

    Goati and Mladjan Dinkic of the G-17 group of economists

    charged that the opposition parties have played into the

    hands of the regime, which is looking for an excuse to

    declare a state of emergency. For that reason, the G-17 will

    not participate in protests led by the parties, as opposed to

    those led by Otpor, "Danas" reported on 23 May. PM

    [11] OTPOR SEEKS OFFICIAL REGISTRATION

    Some 50 members of the

    Serbian Academy of Sciences and an unspecified number of

    other prominent persons from the country's intellectual and

    cultural spheres attended a meeting organized by Otpor in

    Belgrade on 22 May to sign the "founding charter" of the

    student organization. Otpor intends to present the document

    to the Justice Ministry shortly as part of the legal

    procedure to register that organization. Otpor members feel

    that they will deprive the regime of an excuse to ban the

    organization if it is legally registered, AP reported.

    Several unidentified young men dressed in black attended the

    meeting and heckled the participants as "traitors" and

    "fascists," which are some of the regime's epithets for its

    opponents. PM

    [12] OSCE: SERBIAN REGIME THREATENS ITS REPRESENTATIVES

    The OSCE

    said in a statement in Belgrade on 22 May that Yugoslav

    Information Minister Goran Matic recently sent a letter to

    Freimut Duve, who is the OSCE's chief representative dealing

    with freedom of the media. Matic accused Duve of being an

    "accomplice in a crime" by calling for an end to the Belgrade

    regime's campaign against the independent media. Matic added

    that "support for independent media is defined as 'terrorism

    and a crime against a sovereign state.'" He added that "we

    have a long memory," AP reported. PM

    [13] SERBIAN JOURNALIST REARRESTED FOR 'ESPIONAGE'

    A military

    court in Nis on 22 May ordered the rearrest of Miroslav

    Filipovic for "espionage" and "spreading false information"

    because of several articles he wrote for "Danas," AFP, and

    the London-based Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR)

    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 May 2000). The espionage charge

    could carry a stiff penalty and centers on some of

    Filipovic's articles for the IWPR. A military prosecutor

    asked the court to order Filipovic's return to detention,

    from which he was freed on 12 May, Reuters reported. PM

    [14] EU HELP FOR MONTENEGRO

    EU foreign ministers have agreed in

    Brussels on a $10 million aid package for Montenegro. The

    ministers also pledged unspecified future assistance to

    promote democracy, freedom of expression, and inter-ethnic

    relations in the mountainous republic. Meanwhile in

    Podgorica, President Milo Djukanovic said that Bodo Hombach,

    who heads the EU's Balkan Stability Pact, recently promised

    him that Montenegro will attend the pact's meeting in

    Thessaloniki in July as a full participant, RFE/RL's South

    Slavic Service reported. Montenegro plans to participate in

    some 20 projects that the pact is coordinating, Djukanovic

    added. Montenegro, which under international law is part of

    federal Yugoslavia and not a sovereign state, has attended

    previous meetings of the pact as an observer. PM

    [15] THACI: INDEPENDENT KOSOVA STILL THE GOAL

    Hashim Thaci told a

    convention of his Democratic Party of Kosova in Prishtina

    that independence for the province remains his goal and that

    of the party, Vienna's "Die Presse" reported on 23 May (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 May 2000). The delegates elected a 61-

    member steering committee. "Die Presse" noted that Thaci is

    having a difficult time maintaining the support of his former

    fighters from the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK). Many more

    radical UCK members now back Ramush Hajradani's Alliance for

    the Future of Kosova, as do Azem Vllasi and some other former

    communist-era leaders. Many moderate UCK supporters and

    former backers of Ibrahim Rugova have joined Naim Maloku's

    Liberal Center Party. Both Hajradani and Maloku are widely

    regarded as heroes of the 1999 conflict. PM

    [16] UNHCR SAYS 150,000 NON-SERBS FLED KOSOVA

    The UNHCR released

    statistics in Prishtina on 22 May showing that it has

    registered some 150,000 Serbs, Roma, and other non-Albanians

    who fled the province in 1999. Most left following the end of

    the NATO bombing campaign against the Belgrade regime. The

    Belgrade authorities put the figure of Serbs who left much

    higher and charge that NATO has done little to protect

    Kosova's Serbs. Some local Serb and refugee leaders have

    accused Belgrade of doing little or nothing to help the

    refugees. PM

    [17] BELGRADE TURNS BACK MACEDONIANS WITH UNMIK VISAS

    The Serbian

    authorities have recently denied entry to Macedonian citizens

    whose passports contain visas issued for Kosova by the UN

    civilian authority in that province (UNMIK). The Macedonians

    also received stamps in their passport barring them from

    future trips to Serbia. The Belgrade authorities claim that

    entering Kosova on a UNMIK visa constitutes illegal entry

    into Serbia, dpa reported from Skopje on 22 May. PM

    [18] CONVICTED BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINAL TESTIFIES AGAINST COMMANDER

    Drazen Erdemovic, who has completed a jail sentence for war

    crimes, testified in The Hague on 22 May against former

    Bosnian Serb commander General Radislav Krstic. The officer

    is charged with ordering the killing of up to 7,500 mainly

    Muslim males after the fall of Srebrenica in 1995. Erdemovic

    is a Croat married to a Serb. He claims he was forced to take

    part in murders or be killed himself. PM

    [19] COOK SLAMS BOSNIAN LEADERS

    British Foreign Secretary Robin

    Cook said in Sarajevo on 22 May that Bosnia's "privileged

    elites and corrupt political parties" are to blame for the

    republic's problems. "I put the blame squarely at the feet of

    the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Reuters reported. He

    noted that the international community has provided the

    republic with more than $5 billion in assistance over the

    past five years and sent "hundreds of thousands of

    international military and civilian personnel" there. PM

    [20] YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR BOSNIAN JOINT PREMIER

    The Bosnian

    joint presidency approved Spasoje Tusevljak as its nominee

    for the post of joint prime minister on 22 May. Tusevljak is

    an economics professor who owes his nomination to the fact

    that he belongs to no political party, "Oslobodjenje"

    reported. If the parliament approves him, the next task will

    be choosing a joint cabinet (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 April

    and 18 May 2000). PM

    [21] ROMANIAN PREMIER STARTS U.S. VISIT

    Mugur Isarescu, who is on

    a five-day visit to the U.S., has met with U.S. Secretary of

    State Madeleine Albright and former Defense Minster William

    Perry, who is the joint chairman of the Romania-U.S. Action

    Commission, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported on

    22 May. Albright praised Romania's contribution to regional

    stability. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said

    Albright commended Isarescu for his government's

    determination to pursue economic reform and congratulated him

    on the recent memorandum on reaching an agreement with the

    IMF. MS

    [22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION TO BASIC TREATY WITH MOLDOVA GROWING...

    Nineteen senators signed a declaration on 22 May demanding

    that the recently initialed basic treaty with Moldova be

    substantially amended, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported.

    Earlier the same day, the Civic Alliance Movement distanced

    itself from the Moldovan treaty. National Peasant Party

    Christian Democratic Senator Ioan Moisin, who initiated the

    declaration, said the senators demand that the Molotov-

    Ribbentrop Pact be explicitly condemned, that "Bessarabia" be

    explicitly recognized in the treaty as being "historical

    Romanian territory" whose future fate "can be decided only in

    a joint [Romanian-Moldovan] referendum," and that the treaty

    be defined as " provisional" and "a stage

    [toward]...Moldova's natural unification with the mother

    country". MS

    [23] ...WHILE CONDITIONS ARE SET FOR TREATY WITH RUSSIA

    Setting

    conditions for a similar basic treaty with Russia, the

    signatories to the 22 May declaration are also demanding that

    Russia recognize that "Bessarabia" and northern Bukovina are

    historic Romanian territories, as are Herta County and the

    Serpents Island (all in contemporary Ukraine). They also want

    Moscow to return to Romania the treasury held in the Russian

    capital since World War I and repatriate to Romania those

    people deported from Bessarabia and Bukovina under Soviet

    rule. MS

    [24] ROMANIA TO TEMPORARILY CLOSE POLLUTING PLANT

    Environment

    Minister Romica Tomescu on 22 May said that the chemical

    plant at Turnu Magurele, which has frequently polluted the

    Bulgarian town of Nikopol across the Danube River, will be

    "temporarily shut down" for repairs. Part of the plant was

    closed in November 1999, after ammonia levels in Nikopol

    reached 20 times the permitted level, AP reported. MS

    [25] EBRD DOUBTFUL ABOUT FEASIBILITY OF DANUBE BRIDGE FINANCING

    European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Acting

    President Charles Frank, in an interview with RFE/RL on 20

    May, said the economic viability of investing in the planned

    Vidin-Calafat bridge over the River Danube is "questionable"

    and that the EBRD may decide against helping fund the new

    bridge, which will link Bulgaria and Romania. But Alexander

    Bozhkov, Bulgaria's chief negotiator with the EU, told RFE/RL

    that he expects the bank to change its mind after other

    backers commit themselves. Both officials were speaking in

    Riga, where the EBRD held its annual meeting last weekend. MS

    [26] BULGARIAN COALITION OPPOSES INCREASED PRESIDENTIAL POWERS

    Leaders of Bulgaria's center-right coalition told President

    Petar Stoyanov on 22 May that they are opposed to changing

    the status of his largely ceremonial office, AP reported.

    Prime Minister Ivan Kostov told journalists after meeting

    Stoyanov that "attempts to replace [political] parties" as

    the core of Bulgaria's political life are "inadmissible."

    Aleksandar Pramatarski, leader of the Democratic Party, said

    that the parties constitute "the basic political institution

    in Bulgaria" and that his group "vehemently opposes turning

    Bulgaria into a presidential republic." Calls for increasing

    the presidential prerogatives have come from opposition

    politicians and intellectuals. Stoyanov has not made a bid

    for more power, but recently he said he lacks the political

    instruments for influencing the government's economic

    policies and the struggle against corruption. MS


    [C] END NOTE

    [27] JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?

    By Liz Fuller

    In one of his first statements following his 7 May

    inauguration as Russian president, Vladimir Putin said that

    the draft law on direct federal rule in Chechnya will be

    submitted to the State Duma "in the very near future."

    "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 11 May quoted then acting Justice

    Minister Yurii Chaika as saying Putin may issue a federal

    decree imposing direct rule even before the Duma passes the

    required legislation.

    One of the immediate consequences of imposing direct

    rule, as the same newspaper pointed out, would be to deprive

    Aslan Maskhadov of the status of Chechnya's legitimate leader

    and thus obviate the need for any negotiations with him. That

    imminent loss of political relevance to Moscow may be one of

    the reasons for Maskhadov's recent peace proposals, the

    latest of which was unveiled on 8 May. The first phase of

    that draft settlement plan, which Maskhadov envisaged being

    implemented by 31 May, entails a cessation of hostilities, a

    cease-fire, the start of government-level talks, and a broad

    amnesty for participants in the fighting. Maskhadov also

    proposes that Russian-Chechen military districts be created

    and a civilian administration formed. During the second

    phase, which would begin six months later, Chechnya would be

    demilitarized and control handed back to civilians under the

    supervision of the OSCE.

    Russian spokesmen, both civilian and military, continue

    to insist, however, that the only topic on which talks may be

    conducted with Maskhadov are the conditions under which he

    and the Chechen fighters whom he claims to control are

    prepared to surrender. But there are grounds for suspecting

    that Kremlin Chechnya spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembskii's

    repeated denials that any such talks are being conducted or

    even considered are directed in the first instance at those

    Russian generals who are intent on continuing the war until

    the last pocket of Chechen resistance is wiped out.

    In late April, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" cited the Moscow-

    based news agency Svobodnaya Chechnya as reporting that as a

    result of direct talks between Maskhadov and the Russian

    leadership, a five-point agreement had been reached. Under

    that accord, Maskhadov would remain Chechen president; all

    Russian servicemen held prisoner in Chechnya would be

    released; all Chechen fighters would surrender their weapons,

    after which all those who had not participated either in

    terrorist acts or hostage-taking would be amnestied; and a

    Chechen government would be formed in which Maskhadov's

    supporters, the pro-Moscow Chechen diaspora, and

    representatives of the Russian population of Chechnya would

    be equally represented. But serious disagreements between the

    two sides remained, according to Svobodnaya Chechnya, over

    Chechnya's future status within the Russian Federation and

    the permanent deployment there of Russian troops.

    If the information gathered by Svobodnaya Chechnya is

    reliable and such an agreement with Maskhadov was indeed

    reached, it may have been torpedoed by the two Chechen

    ambushes of Russian Defense Ministry forces in Chechnya on 24

    and 26 April. And the Russian military will doubtless adduce

    the 11 May Chechen attack on a Russian troop column in

    Ingushetia to substantiate its argument that the most

    effective course of action is to eliminate Chechen resistance

    by force, rather than seek a political settlement of the

    conflict.

    The introduction of direct federal rule has the

    advantage of sidelining Maskhadov, whose ability to control

    his field commanders is questionable, while allowing the

    federal forces to continue their operations to wipe out the

    Chechen resistance and permitting Moscow to appoint its own

    interim candidate as Chechen leader for the next couple of

    years. One of the prospective candidates for that post is

    Chechen Mufti Akhmed-hadji Kadyrov, who had proposed the

    option of presidential rule for Chechnya to Putin two months

    ago. Kadyrov told "Vremya novostei" recently that talks with

    Maskhadov are essential in order to persuade the Chechen

    president to surrender his powers to the Chechen parliament

    elected in early 1997 and "stop hindering [a settlement]." He

    said that body includes several dozen deputies with whom

    Moscow could embark on negotiations on Chechnya's future

    relations with Russia.

    Both Kadyrov's logic and that underlining Moscow's

    apparent determination to impose direct presidential rule

    seems to be based on the assumption that the Chechen military

    threat will somehow cease to exist at some point in the near

    future. But Moscow's parallel argument that Maskhadov is

    incapable of reining in his field commanders undercuts that

    assumption. To judge by the recent attack in Ingushetia,

    Moscow is more likely to be faced with the threat of

    continued Chechen guerrilla attacks not just in Chechnya but

    over an increasingly broad geographical area until Chechen

    field commanders and their supporters decide that such

    tactics are no longer effective. And the sequel is likely to

    be that outlined by the Conflict Studies Research Center

    Charles Blandy in a superb analysis earlier this year: as

    many as three Chechen governments-in-exile, at least one of

    which is likely to resort to terrorist attacks against

    Russian targets.

    23-05-00


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


    Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article
    Back to Top
    Copyright 1995-2016 HR-Net (Hellenic Resources Network). An HRI Project.
    All Rights Reserved.

    HTML by the HR-Net Group / Hellenic Resources Institute, Inc.
    rferl2html v1.01 run on Tuesday, 23 May 2000 - 14:33:18 UTC