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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 5, No. 116, 01-06-19Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 5, No. 116, 19 June 2001CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIA, EU SEEK COMPROMISE ON NUCLEAR POWER PLANTThe second session of the Armenia-EU partnership committee, which took place in Yerevan on 15 June, focused on bilateral cooperation, how to resolve the Karabakh conflict, and the closure of Armenia's Medzamor nuclear power station, ITAR-TASS and Noyan Tapan reported. Under an agreement signed with the EU in 1996, Yerevan pledged to close Medzamor by 2004, but over the past year Armenian officials have repeatedly declared that the plant could function safely for an additional five or 10 years, and that it cannot be closed until alternative generating capacity is in place. Medzamor covers up to 40 percent of Armenia's electricity needs. Energy Minister Karen Galustian told Armenian National Television on 16 June that if the EU insists that the original closure date is met then it must provide assistance to Armenia in meeting the resulting energy deficit. A group of EU experts will inspect the plant this fall. LF[02] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY CONFIRMS TIMING OF MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS' MEETINGArmenian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Dziunik Aghadjanian confirmed on 18 June that the U.S., Russian, and French representatives to the OSCE Minsk Group will meet in Malta on 22-24 June to discuss how to overcome the "difficulties" that have arisen in the Karabakh peace talks, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 June 2001). LF[03] WAR VETERANS APPEAL ON BEHALF OF JAILED KARABAKH GENERALA group of Armenians who served as prominent military commanders during the Karabakh war has written on behalf of over 8,000 veterans of that conflict to Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Karabakh President Arkadii Ghukasian appealing for clemency for former Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan, Noyan Tapan reported on 18 June. Babayan was sentenced in February to 14-years imprisonment on charges of masterminding the abortive bid in March 2000 to assassinate Ghukasian (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 February 2001). Criticizing that sentence as "disgraceful," the war veterans affirmed their belief in Babayan's innocence. They also warned that "the war has not ended yet," and "the divided opinions [over Babayan's guilt] are a luxury which a small people cannot afford." Groong on 16 June cited the Armenian weekly "Iravunk" as reporting in its 15 June issue that a war veteran engaged in collecting signatures to the appeal on Babayan's behalf has been arrested. LF[04] SEPARATIST LEADER DECLARES HUNGER STRIKE IN AZERBAIJANI JAILAlikram Gumbatov, who was sentenced in 1996 to life imprisonment for having declared a separate Talysh-Mughan Republic in southeastern Azerbaijan three years earlier, declared a hunger strike in Baku's Gobustan prison on 15 June to protest the lack of ventilation and poor lighting in his cell, Turan reported on 18 June. LF[05] GEORGIA SAYS MILITARY COOPERATION WITH TURKEY NO THREAT TO ARMENIASpeaking in Tbilisi on 18 June, Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili rejected concerns voiced by his Armenian counterpart Vartan Oskanian that Georgia's close military cooperation with Turkey could pose a threat to Armenia's security, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. "Tbilisi will not take steps directed against Armenia," Prime News quoted Menagharishvili as saying. LF[06] ABKHAZIA DROPS CONDITIONS FOR PARTICIPATING IN CONFIDENCE-BUILDING TALKSDuring talks in Sukhum on 18 June with Abkhaz Prime Minister Anri Djergenia, UN special representative for the Abkhaz conflict Dieter Boden succeeded in persuading the Abkhaz leadership to drop the conditions it set two months earlier for resuming participation in sessions of the UN-sponsored Coordinating Council that promotes confidence-building measures between Georgia and Abkhazia, Caucasus Press reported. Following the abduction of five Abkhaz army conscripts by Georgian guerrillas in April, Abkhazia had made continued participation in the work of the Coordinating Council contingent on the Georgian leadership's withdrawal of tacit support for the guerrillas' operations. The next meeting of the council will take place in July. LF[07] RUSSIA REFUSES U.S. ASSISTANCE TO CLOSE GEORGIAN BASESMoscow has turned down an offer made last year by the U.S. to contribute $10 million toward the cost of closing Russian military bases in Georgia because it considers some paragraphs of the memorandum on that issue unacceptable, Caucasus Press quoted departing U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Kenneth Spenser Yalowitz as saying in Tbilisi on 18 June. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov said last month that it would cost Russia 4.3 billion ($140 million) to close the military facilities, and it could do so in under 15 years only if the West contributed toward the total costs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 May 2001). LF[08] NEW RIGHT-WING PARTY TAKES SHAPE IN GEORGIAThe "New Faction" initially composed of former parliament deputies from the majority Union of Citizens of Georgia who split from that party last fall (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 39, 6 October 2000)) formalized the faction's transformation into a political party, named "New Right- Wingers," at that party's founding congress in Tbilisi on 15 June, Caucasus Press reported. Parliament deputy David Gamkrelidze, who was elected party chairman, said some 5,000 people have expressed an interest in membership. LF[09] KAZAKHSTAN'S PARLIAMENT CONCERNED AT TB, CRIME AMONG YOUTHAt a special 15 June hearing on Kazakhstan's penitentiary system, deputies to the Mazhilis (the lower chamber of Kazakhstan's parliament) expressed concern at the growing incidences of tuberculosis among young people, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported. Reuters estimated last year that between 80,000-100,000 of Kazakhstan's 15 million population suffer from the disease, while Interfax reported in March that 4,000 people died of TB in Kazakhstan in 2000. Deputies also noted with alarm that the majority of the country's estimated 70,000 prison inmates are aged between 18-30. Ten percent of the prison population suffers from TB. LF[10] KYRGYZSTAN, CHINA AGREE ON RAILWAY CONSTRUCTIONMeeting on the sidelines of last week's Shanghai Forum summit, the transport ministers of Kyrgyzstan and China signed a memorandum on construction of a rail link from the western Chinese town of Kashgar via Torugart and Djalalabad to Bishkek, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service reported. The railway will take some three-four years to build and will cost an estimated $1 billion. A further agreement is to be drafted specifying how those costs will be shared between the two sides. LF[11] TAJIK FIELD COMMANDER EXPLAINS MOTIVES FOR KIDNAPPINGFormer field commander Rakhmon Sanginov told journalists in Dushanbe on 18 June that he took four police officials hostage last week in order to focus attention on what he termed official oppression of 13 former United Tajik Opposition members, Asia Plus-Blitz and Interfax reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 and 14 June 2001). Sanginov released the policemen on 17 June. A Tajik army officer confirmed that Interior Ministry officials recently arrested some former opposition fighters under his command and announced that as a result he has decided to resign from the armed forces. LF[12] TURKMENISTAN INTRODUCES DRESS CODE FOR SCHOOL CHILDREN, STUDENTSBeginning in September 2001, school children and students in Turkmenistan will be required to wear Turkmen national headdress regardless of their nationality, AFP reported on 18 June. Girls will be forbidden to wear miniskirts, dresses with high splits, or trousers. The restrictions are part of an official campaign to further awareness of national identity among the Turkmen. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] U.S. SAYS MACEDONIA HAS NOT ASKED FOR NATO DEPLOYMENTState Department spokesman Richard Boucher said in Washington on 18 June that the Macedonian "cease-fire appears to be holding despite some low- level skirmishes... NATO and NATO countries...want to be very helpful to President [Boris] Trajkovski in terms of calming the situation, achieving peace, [and] reforming political processes. [In this context,] President Trajkovski said he was looking for the help of NATO or NATO countries to further assist in this matter including, as he put it, assistance in overseeing the voluntary disarmament [of the guerrillas]... President Trajkovski has not asked for deployments to conduct military operations in Macedonia," RFE/RL reported. Some NATO advance units are reportedly already in Macedonia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 June 2001). Many NATO leaders would like the alliance to take a more active role in Macedonia before matters get out of hand, but U.S. President George W. Bush wants to give political leaders more time to reach a settlement before seriously looking at military options (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 12 June 2001). PM[14] BUSH SAYS U.S., RUSSIA SEE EYE-TO-EYE ON MACEDONIAPresident Bush said in Washington on 18 June: "I believe we can work with the Russians [in the Balkans]. We share the same interest, which is a stable Macedonia. A Macedonia that is fractured and where extremists are able to make headway will create instability in the region," AP reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 June 2001). Asked if he agrees with Putin on the need to close the border between Macedonia and Kosova, Bush replied: "We strongly believe we need to cut off the border. As a matter of fact, our troops who participate in [NATO-led peacekeeping forces] are doing just that." NATO peacekeepers have repeatedly said that they are doing all that they can given the difficulty of the terrain in question. Moscow, Belgrade, and Skopje frequently charge that NATO is not doing enough to control the border. PM[15] DOES SERBIA WANT MORE WEAPONS?Dejan Sahovic, Belgrade's ambassador to the UN, told the BBC's Serbian Service on 19 June that he is working to persuade the UN to lift the arms embargo on his country. He argued that it is time to lift the one remaining major sanction on Serbia (as opposed to sanctions on the former ruling elite) as a sign of confidence in the "democratic authorities" in Belgrade. Russia and China support his proposal. Observers note that Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica for months justified his reluctance to cooperate with The Hague-based war crimes tribunal by saying that his government has far more pressing tasks that consume valuable time. It is not clear just why his government is now willing to devote time to getting the UN arms embargo lifted. PM[16] SERBIA OPENS POLICE FILESOn 18 June, the authorities began allowing citizens access to their files compiled by the State Security department, AP reported. Citizens may make an appointment to view the documents but not copy or remove them. The authorities are also taking steps to return to daily and weekly publications and to independent broadcasters some $163,000 that the regime of former President Slobodan Milosevic collected from them in fines designed to intimidate or bankrupt them. PM[17] SERB SENTENCED IN RECAK MURDERSThe Prishtina District Court has sentenced Zoran Stanojevic, a former policeman, to 15 years in prison in connection with the killing of civilians in Recak in 1999, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[18] UN TEAM WRAPS UP BALKAN 'FACT-FINDING' MISSIONVisitors from the UN Security Council met Serbian leaders in Belgrade on 18 June after spending the weekend in Kosova. UN Ambassador Anwarul Karim Chowdhury, of Bangladesh, said that more must be done to improve the security situation in Kosova, Reuters reported. He nonetheless expressed appreciation for the achievements of the UN administration in Kosova in providing security. PM[19] BOSNIAN WAR CRIMES SUSPECT ESCAPES PRISONVeselin Vlahovic, a Montenegrin serving a three-year sentence in Montenegro's Spuz prison for robbery and violent behavior, escaped on 18 June, AP reported. The authorities are holding four prison guards suspected of complicity in the escape. The Bosnian authorities are investigating Vlahovic for the "murder and torture" of an unspecified number of Muslims in the Sarajevo suburb of Grbavica during the 1992-1995 war. Montenegro has turned down Bosnian requests for his extradition on the grounds that Yugoslav law does not permit the extradition of Yugoslav citizens. PM[20] SERBIAN CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS STAGE WALK-OUT IN VUKOVARThe eight council members belonging to the Independent Democratic Serbian Party (SDSS) walked out of the Vukovar City Council on 18 June after Croatian deputies belonging to the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), Croatian Party of [Historic] Rights (HSP), and Democratic Center (DC) elected HDZ and HSP members to fill top city jobs, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The Serbs claimed they had been unfairly excluded even though theirs is the second-strongest party in the council. PM[21] CROATIAN CONSERVATIVES WIN IN ZADAR VOTEThe HDZ won 13 out of 27 City Council seats in local elections in Zadar, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 18 June. The independent Stanislav Antic List took 10 seats. In Zagreb, Ivo Sanader, who heads the HDZ, said that his party is willing to work with any and all parties except the Social Democrats and Croatian People's Party. PM[22] CROATIAN WAR TOLL PUBLISHEDSome 20,091 people died in the 1991-1995 war in Croatia, of whom 14,433 were Croats, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 18 June, quoting the Rijeka daily "Novi List." Some 1,658 individuals, who are most likely dead, are still officially listed as missing. PM[23] CROATS, SLOVENES MARK 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF INDEPENDENCEMany of the leaders of the Croatian and Slovenian movements for independence in 1991 met in Zagreb on 18 June for a roundtable discussion, "Slobodna Dalmacija" reported. Croatian participants included President Stipe Mesic, former General Martin Spegelj, former Foreign Minister Mate Granic, and former Interior Minister Josip Boljkovac. The Slovenian delegation included former Defense Minister Janez Jansa, Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, and former Interior Minister Igor Bavcar. Mesic said that Milosevic deprived foreign leaders of any illusions that former Yugoslavia could be preserved, because his policy was clearly that of creating a Greater Serbia. PM[24] ROMANIA DENIES BREAKING ARMS EMBARGO ON IRAQRomanian officials on 18 June denied Bucharest has broken the UN sanctions against armament exports to Iraq, Mediafax reported. Dragos Tocac, deputy director of the National Agency for the Control of Strategic Exports and Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said the agency has authorized no exports to Iraq since the embargo was imposed in 1990. A report in "The New York Times" on that day said Romania, as well as Belarus and Ukraine, continued supplying Iraq with weapons or spare parts long after the embargo was instituted. Tocac said the accusations were "very serious and grave," but that he "does not believe they are founded." MS[25] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WRITES BUSHIon Iliescu, in a letter to his U.S. counterpart George W. Bush released to the media on 18 June, welcomed Bush's recent announcement that NATO will continue expanding at its 2002 summit and said Romania will continue and intensify efforts to reform its army and bring it in line with NATO standards. Iliescu said Romania's "strategic importance" as the second- largest country in Southeastern Europe must be taken into account when the enlargement decision is made, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Also on 18 June, Iliescu said he welcomed the Goteborg EU summit decisions, adding that while at the summit he expressed "the firm will of Romania's government and society to overcome retardation" and open negotiations on all the chapters of the aquis communautaire by the end of 2002. Finally, reacting to the Bulgarian election's results, Iliescu said that they are "sociologically comparable to those in Moldova -- "also a surprise produced by voters who rejected the former administration." MS[26] ROMANIAN PREMIER 'ASSUMES CABINET RESPONSIBILITY' ON INVESTMENT LAW...Using the "assumption of responsibility" procedure, Nastase on 19 June presented in the parliament the bill promoting direct foreign investments, Romanian Radio reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 June 2001). Greater Romania Party (PRM) parliamentary group leader Augustin Bolcas said the cabinet "has assumed responsibility for a bad law constructed on imaginative grounds," but added that the PRM has yet to decide whether to move a no-confidence motion. Unless such a motion is submitted within three days, the assumption of responsibility procedure stipulates that the bill will be regarded as having been approved by the parliament. MS[27] ...ANNOUNCES SETTLEMENT OF DEBT DISPUTE WITH SWEDEN...Premier Nastase announced on 18 June that his government has reached an agreement with the Swedish government on settling a debt dating back to 1922-1934, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Under the compromise, Romania agreed to pay Sweden a total of $120 million in compensation for bonds issued by Romania's interwar government, an unserviced $28 million debt for a loan granted by Sweden to Romania in 1929, and for Swedish properties nationalized by the communists. Successive Swedish governments had previously said the debt and interest on it amounted to $3-4 billion. Nastase said the debt will be liquidated by the end of 2002 and that, if Romania pays one-quarter of the sum this year, the budget will have to be adjusted. MS[28] ...SAYS NO CHANGE IN TV BOARD OF ADMINISTRATIONNastase also announced that the leadership of his ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) decided on 18 June not to pursue replacing the current board of administration of Romanian television, whose mandate runs out next year. He said the PSD does not want the replacement to be perceived as "politically motivated" but added that the party's leadership has yet to discuss what position to take toward the radio's board of administration, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported (see RFE/RL Newsline," 11 June 2001). MS[29] RUSSIA, TRANSDNIESTER TO SCRAP AMMUNITION DEPOTSRussian Deputy Defense Minister General Vladimir Isakov and separatist leader Igor Smirnov on 15 June signed an agreement to destroy hundreds of tons of ammunitions left over from the Soviet era, some of which date as far back as the World War II, Infotag and dpa reported. Part of that arsenal is to be converted into saleable metals and commercial explosives. The OSCE cosigned the agreement and will finance the project. Russia has justified its continued military presence in the region by the need for its 2,000-strong contingent to guard the ammunitions, but observers are skeptical that their liquidation will accelerate the withdrawal of the troops in line with the 1999 OSCE summit decision. Smirnov expressed satisfaction that the agreement stipulates that the Transdniester authorities will be compensated for the armaments about to be scrapped. MS[30] MOLDOVAN EXTRAPARLIAMENTARY PARTIES MERGE, SPLITThe National Liberal Party, the Party of Civic Dignity, the New National Moldovan Party, the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic and the Party of Social Order and Justice on 18 June said they will merge at a joint congress to be held on 8 July or one week later, Infotag reported. The Party of Democratic Forces (PDF) and the National Romanian Party are also to merge at a congress scheduled for 22 July. The new formation is to be also joined by a wing of the Popular Party Christian Democratic headed by Valentin Dolganiuc. The PDF also announced that negotiations are continuing for merger with the Party of Revival and Conciliation headed by former President Mircea Snegur. Meanwhile, however, a group of 23 PDF members headed by Vasile Nedelciuc left the PDF on 17 June, saying PDF leader Valeriu Matei is "trying to perpetuate forever" his leadership of the formation. MS[31] COMMUNISTS WIN MAIN MOLDOVAN LOCAL ELECTIONSParty of Moldovan Communists (PCM) candidate Vasile Panciuc was elected mayor of Balti, Moldova's second-largest town, in the partial local elections held in several Moldovan localities on 17 June, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. PCM candidates were also elected as mayors in Ocnita and in Chetrosu, a village in Chisinau County. An Agrarian Democratic Party candidate won the elections in a village in Lapusna County and a Social Democratic Party candidate was elected mayor of a village in Balti County. Two villages will now have independent mayors, and in four other localities the ballot is to be repeated on 1 July due to voter turnout of less than 50 percent. MS[32] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS DRAFT BILL ON ELECTRONIC MEDIA INDEPENDENCEThe parliament on 15 June rejected a draft bill submitted by the opposition Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD) to transform the Teleradio- Moldova state company into a public broadcasting authority, Infotag reported. The bill proposed that the authority be headed by a 12-member board that would appoint its chairman independently of the government. MS[33] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT CALLS FOR COALITIONFollowing the release of nearly complete results of the 17 June parliamentary elections, President Petar Stoyanov called on the National Movement Simeon II (NDSV) to set up a coalition government even if it can rule alone, BTA reported (see "End Note" below). Stoyanov said the NDSV should not "repeat the mistakes of the two previous absolute majorities in the Bulgarian parliament," but should use the experience of other parties to rule the country (it later turned out that the NDSV just missed the absolute majority). Stoyanov said the NDSV "deserves congratulations" due to its having given assurances when the results came in that it will "respect the past achievements and build on the firm foundations laid in the last four years." MS[34] WILL HE OR WILL HE NOT: WHAT ROLE FOR SIMEON NOW?Former King Simeon II on 18 June said he will "take his time" and "consider things very carefully" before deciding with whom to form a coalition, Reuters reported. Nikolai Vasiliev, head of the NDSV economic team, said the "basic question" now is for Simeon to decide whether to head the new cabinet himself or not. The chances that he will become premier or "remain behind the scenes," Vasiliev added, "are about equal." According to AFP, Vasiliev, aged 31, is tipped as Bulgaria's next finance minister. He told that agency on 18 June that the NDSV's reforms will be "more radical and go further" than the reforms implemented by the United Democratic Forces coalition. Vladimir Karolev, also a member of the NDSV economic team, said no "shock therapy" policy is envisaged. "There is just the need for continuity, but we need to be more focused," he said. MS[35] EU URGES BULGARIA TO STAY ON REFORM PATHThe European Commission on 18 June said it hopes Bulgaria will stay on the path of economic reform after the general elections, Reuters reported. Speaking on behalf of Guenter Verheugen, the EU commissioner for enlargement, commission spokesman Jean-Christophe Filori said the commission hopes Bulgaria "maintains and even accelerates" the pace of reforms necessary for its EU integration. Asked by journalists whether a restoration of the monarchy could affect Bulgaria's candidacy, Filori replied: "There are monarchies among [EU] member states, and they are as respectable as republics." In other news, Euro-Left leader Alexander Tomov, whose party did not pass the 4 percent electoral hurdle, on 18 June told BTA he will resign. MS[C] END NOTE[36] THE PROOF OF THE FETA AND THE BULGARIAN ELECTORAL OUTCOMEBy Michael ShafirWith nearly all votes counted in the Bulgarian parliamentary elections of 17 June, the landslide that pollsters have been predicting for the National Movement Simeon II (NDSV) is now confirmed. The NDSV is only one seat short of an absolute majority in the legislature, having 120 seats in the 240-member parliament. It has garnered (with 99.87 percent of votes counted) 43.05 percent, but the redistribution of votes cast for parties that did not make the 4 percent electoral hurdle always works to the advantage of the larger formations that gain parliamentary representation. That the movement headed by Simeon has failed to gain an absolute majority may well be due to the confusion created by the participation in the elections of a formation calling itself Coalition for Simeon II, which managed to garner about 3.5 percent of the vote. Simeon complained during the electoral campaign that the coalition had been established precisely in order to produce that effect. According to reports, some Bulgarians, particularly among those voting abroad, may well have cast their ballot in favor of the coalition, believing they were voting for the NDSV. Even so, the maverick political formation set up by the former Bulgarian monarch only two months earlier should have no serious difficulty in setting up a coalition if it cannot rule alone. In fact, Simeon announced as soon as the electoral outcome began to take shape that the party wishes to rule in partnership with like-minded formations. The question is: which formations could fill that role? The most obvious candidate, of course, is the main loser of the ballot, the United Democratic Forces (ODS) alliance. With a likely representation of 51 deputies in the parliament and a tally of 18.24 percent in the ballot, the ODS is indeed the "natural" partner for the NDSV, with which it shares both economic and foreign policy outlooks. But for this to happen, the ODS must now overcome not only its hurt pride, but also the danger of a further loss of credibility. The alliance had done its very best to discredit the NDSV, whose program it attacked as "populist" and "unrealistic." What is more, it must do so while still believing in the justness of those judgments. The likely solution rests in the political departure, at least for some time, of outgoing Premier Ivan Kostov. Kostov has already hinted that he intends to resign as chairman of the ODS's most important component, the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS). He was also candid enough to admit that "many mistakes" were committed by his government in its pursuit of strict fiscal and financial discipline and harsh privatization that left many people jobless. The Bulgarian people, he said, had administered retribution for those mistakes because they were "unwilling to pay the price" of the high social costs involved. Voters, in general, do not look at macroeconomic figures. Rather, they look into their pockets, and the NDSV promised to fill those in record time while staying the course of reform. Balkan fairy tales can be very attractive. A likely successor for Kostov at the head of the SDS is Sofia Mayor Stefan Sofiyansky, who was clearly distancing himself from Kostov during the electoral campaign. During the last few days of the campaign, Sofiyansky had already advocated a post-electoral coalition with the NDSV, which Kostov ruled out. The outgoing premier is warning even more against a possible "grand coalition" that would also include the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), saying that, as in neighboring Macedonia, this would "leave in the opposition only the people." But even President Petar Stoyanov, a critic of the NDSV, now seems eager to promote a coalition of the ODS and the former monarch's movement. "Even if you have the chance to govern on your own," Stoyanov advised the NDSV after its victory, "it is better to make use of the achievements, the know- how and experience of other political parties." The BSP has also declared its readiness to enter into coalition parleys with the victors, but this is less likely to happen. The "price" demanded by the BSP -- Kostov's political head and assurances that Bulgaria will remain a republic -- may not be high, but with a probable parliamentary representation of 48 deputies (17.35 percent of the ballot) there is little the BSP can offer to outbid the ODS, and a lot still speaks against its being of one mind with the NDSV. Finally, the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) can step in even if parleys with both the ODS and the BSP fail. Despite predictions that it might fail to pass the electoral hurdle this time around and gain representation, the DPS -- apparently also due to support from votes cast in Turkey -- managed to garner over 6 percent and is likely to be represented by some 21 deputies. The real problems of Bulgaria are only beginning, however. Having outvoted a government that, for all its failures, brought Bulgaria from economic catastrophe and international lack of credibility to a 5.8 percent GDP growth and closer to EU and NATO membership than anyone could have dared hope, its citizens may soon find out that the country's problems will not be solved "within 800 days," as promised by the former monarch. Protest voting, combined with the attraction of charisma, has done away with Bulgaria's largely bipolar post-communist system. No one knows, however, what it has replaced it with. The proof of the feta will rest in its eating. But who will now produce the cheese is still a mystery. 19-06-01 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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