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Cyprus PIO: Turkish Press and Other Media, 03-03-07
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From: The Republic of Cyprus Press and Information Office Server at <http://www.pio.gov.cy/>TURKISH PRESS AND OTHER MEDIA No.46/03 07.03.03
[A] NEWS ITEMS
[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
[A] NEWS ITEMS
 Statement by Presidential chief adviser on the Ankara Cyprus meeting under President SezerIstanbul NTV Television (06.03.03) broadcast live the following statement by Tacan Ildem, the Turkish President's chief adviser, at the Presidential Mansion in Ankara after a meeting on Cyprus chaired by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer:
"A meeting was held under the chairmanship of our honourable President at the Cankaya Presidential Mansion today, attended by our honourable prime minister, our honourable chief of the General Staff, our honourable foreign minister, and high-level civilian and military bureaucrats. The Cyprus issue was assessed at this meeting.
Later, consultations were held with Rauf Denktas, `president of the TRNC', who is currently on a working visit to our country, and his delegation, on the current stage of the Cyprus problem and the negotiation process.
On 26 February, the UN Secretary - General submitted to the sides on the island a solution plan that was revised for the second time. The two sides have not yet agreed on this plan. The plan has parts and elements that need to be completed by the sides. Furthermore, the UN Secretary - General has accepted that if the two sides agree, changes can be made to the plan by 25 March.
In its present form, the Annan plan is far from meeting the Turkish side's basic concerns and expectations.
It is obvious that a just and lasting solution to the Cyprus problem can only be achieved by an agreement that is acceptable to both sides. It is known that the Greek Cypriot side has submitted its proposals for changes in the revised plan to the UN Secretary-General. The Turkish Cypriot side, too, will submit its proposals for changes to the UN Secretary-General. Whether or not the said plan will be submitted to a referendum in its present form is a decision that must be made by the sides on the island, in line with their own democratic and constitutional structure.
Turkey has always shown the necessary respect and care for the will of the `TRNC' and the security and well-being of the Turkish Cypriot people.
Given its rights and responsibilities stemming from international agreements, whether Turkey will assume responsibilities in this regard in line with the wishes of the UN Secretary-General will naturally depend on Turkey's constitutional rules and regulations.
Turkey will continue to be in close consultation and cooperation with `TRNC President' Denktas. Turkey supports the constructive efforts Mr Denktas is making for peace".
 The Turkish Cypriot leader addressed the TGNAAnkara TRT 2 Television (06.03.03) broadcast live the speech by Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas at the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), following the meeting on Cyprus at the Presidential palace.
The speech is as follows:
"Esteemed speaker, esteemed deputies, I am happy to be in your company in this building where you cast a light over the will of the Turkish nation and where you raise your courageous voice at each turn of the Cyprus question. I thank you from the bottom of my heart for granting me this beautiful opportunity.
The reason for our arrival in Ankara this time is the plan Kofi Annan, the honourable UN Secretary-General, presented to us following a lengthy negotiation process. When we assess all aspects of this plan, we see that extensive changes are necessary for it to be accepted. We wanted to share our view on the issue with Ankara. The acceptance of the plan in its current form seemed doubtful at the meeting we held at the Cankaya Mansion a while ago. An agreement was reached on the fact that it has to be amended. This has pleased us because if the plan remains in its current form, the Turkish Cypriots, who were rescued through the `Peace Operation', will again be pushed into more difficult conditions. It is as if the `Peace Operation' is being punished. The source of the tranquillity we achieved through the `Peace Operation', in other words our bi-zonal geography, will be disrupted with the infiltration of some 60,000 Greek Cypriots into our borders. Bi-zonality is a criterion, a principle that has been on the agenda since 1977. We do not know what has prompted the UN Secretary-General to disrupt this principle. When you have a look at the plan, however, you can see a small state whose population is made up of 100 percent Greek Cypriots in the Greek Cypriot sector and a mixed state, which is called a founding state but which is actually not a state at all, in the north. This is tantamount to a lack of balance, injustice, and the elimination of the principle of bi-zonality, which is the source of our tranquillity. This is tantamount to increasing unrest and, since we know well the Greek Cypriots, we are afraid that this will be the start of the repetition of the 1974 incidents.
Another injustice that has been committed is that the Greek Cypriots' land deeds are being considered valid while those of the `TRNC' are being considered invalid. The Greek Cypriots, through personal applications, are granted the right to seek their land deeds. Having taken a look at the plan, Clerides said the following to his people during an election campaign speech: 'We are acceding to the EU. We can say that we have acceded to the EU whether or not you sign the plan. Why, then, are you opposed to this plan? Has our goal not been the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island for so many years? This plan achieves that goal. All the Turkish troops will, in time, withdraw from the island. Did we not want the return of our refugees to their homes? Did we not seek their right to return and to claim their property rights? Have a look at this plan. It achieves this goal as well. Then, why are you hesitant?'
When we have a look at this plan, we see that Clerides is telling the truth. The plan not only returns to the Greek Cypriots a large part of the territory they lost during the `Peace Operation', but it also paves the way to having the Greek Cypriots among us, as was the case in the past, by granting them their individual rights to their property title-deeds. Therefore, this plan does not resolve the Cyprus problem. It prepares the ground for dragging the Cyprus question to new adventures at a new level.
This is the way we see it. Unfortunately, the UN Secretary-General has chosen to impose this plan on us by claiming that it is built on sensitive balances and that, therefore, it cannot be changed. He has gone so far as to setting deadlines for us to give him the names of the three judges mentioned in the plan, saying that otherwise he will be making the appointments. Our view is that this approach is not compatible with his good-offices mission and will, once again, place Cyprus under Greek Cypriot hegemony. We assess this plan as one that grants us very limited rights in an administration that will, in time, transform us into a minority under protection. This is the reason why we want it changed and we are insistent on this issue.
Papadopoulos, the new Greek Cypriot leader, has said that he is willing to come to the Hague but that he has not yet decided what his reply will be to the issue of submitting the plan to a referendum. He said that he would give his reply in the Hague after having held his consultations. The invitation, however, said: Come to the Hague and assure us that you will submit the plan to a referendum. Let Turkey, Greece, and the United Kingdom also sign this as the guarantor countries.
Esteemed deputies, as you know, the Cyprus Republic was not established by itself in 1960. It was established through international agreements and the 1960 agreements granted Turkey concrete rights. Now these rights are being abolished. If we accept this plan, then these rights will be abolished. Therefore, we are saying that we have no right to do that. In other words, we have an electorate power of some 134,000.We are saying that from the viewpoint of the security of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots, we have no right to abolish these rights confirmed by international agreements through the votes of half of this electorate by submitting the plan to a referendum. Naturally, Turkey will assess the situation within the framework of its laws and will give its reply accordingly.
When Papadopoulos said that he would give his reply in the Hague, the UN Secretary-General, who is aware that I do not look upon this plan positively and I want it changed, asked me: What will you do? My response was: Why travel to the Hague in vain to give a negative reply? We will give our reply to de Soto here. He can then write to you. We will explain our reasons. In other words, let us not make this trip. The UN Secretary-General, however, probably not wanting to return empty-handed, said: Come to the Hague even if your reply is negative. Come and explain your problem there. We will, thus, go to the Hague. We will, however, be going to the Hague strengthened as a result of the contacts we held in Ankara. We will go with goodwill. We will seek ways to change this plan. With God's will, we shall find them.
If Papadopoulos also believes that there are many sections in the plan that should be changed, then he should tell me clearly. I will be telling him: How can we submit a plan, over which the two sides are not in agreement and which entails many elements that we want changed, to a referendum as though we are in agreement over the constitution and organization of the entire island? If the people approve of this half-baked plan, then what will be the method to complete this plan? Renewed fights, saying: I do not like this part. I want it changed. I do not accept this part, and I do not like that part. Will we not pave the way to renewed fighting? I want to put this question to Papadopoulos.
I believe that nowhere in the world has a plan been prepared, imposed, forced upon from the outside. Maybe you will show Palestine as an example. As you know, the Palestinian and Israeli leaders received the Nobel prize for concluding that agreement. This artificial agreement, however, did not hold and there is still bloodshed in Palestine. This is what we are afraid of. Turkish troops should not be forced to come here to rescue us all the time. There should be no need for that. We want a sound and lasting agreement. We do not want an agreement that is just on paper as was the 1960 agreement. We did not want an agreement that could be torn into pieces by telling us: Now I am the government, and you are a minority. Nor do we want such an agreement now. We want this agreement to be based on our sovereignty. We do not accept an argument on whether we are sovereign, because we rescued our sovereignty from the Greek Cypriots and we established our state after having waited for 20 years.
The Turkish Republic has recognized this state. This Assembly has recognized our state. You sacrificed your children to rescue us. You have helped and supported us in maintaining peace by making sacrifices at every stage of the negotiations. We were unable to attain peace. Conciliation could not be reached. We are saying that you should question the reason. There is only a single reason. While Makarios, whose hands were soaked in blood and whom we refer to as the Milosevic of Cyprus, was burying us in mass graves, the UN Security Council recognized him as the legitimate government of the Cyprus Republic. They disregarded the fact that an international agreement was being trampled upon. They disregarded the suffering and oppression of the Turkish Cypriot people. They said: You are the president of the legitimate Cyprus Republic. From that moment on, Makarios had no reason to resolve the Cyprus problem, because he had launched his attack with the aim of turning us into a minority and paving the way to enosis by abolishing the 1960 agreements. Before his death he left a legacy. He said: With my deeds, I brought the Cyprus issue to a stage that is closest to enosis. There is no regressing from this stage. You can regress only in the name of enosis. Therefore, we asked that any agreement to be concluded with us should ensure the strengthened continuation of Turkey's guarantees and the reinstatement of the status of the Turkish Cypriots to that of founding partners as was the case in the 1960 Republic. We were insistent on these points. All the concessions we made were in vain. Makarios and those who ensued him said: The government of the Cyprus Republic exists. The guarantee agreement should be amended. It should even be abolished. The Turkish Cypriots should be granted the status of a minority or a protected minority.
Turkish and Greek Cypriots leaders get together once a month. This has been continuing for years. They have, however, failed to hatch a single egg in all that time, they have failed to reach a single result. At the meeting held two days ago, Christofias, the leader of the Communist Party, the party that supports Papadopoulos, said the following: We are the sovereign people. We will grant you constitutional rights within this organization. What more do you want? Constitutional rights. In other words, instead of the strong rights granted to us in 1960, we are now being granted weaker rights at the level of a so-called founding state. This state does not have physical borders. It will have borders similar to municipal ones. The Greek Cypriots will be able to enter this state as they please and as much as they please. The Greek Cypriots will have some ten percent rights within this state. The remaining ones will have individual recourse rights at international courts, thus destroying us. The Greek Cypriot will come and say: Get out of my house. The Turkish Cypriot will say: I left property behind in Limassol and Paphos, which is more valuable than this property here. I will not get out. Here is a fight for you. The Greek Cypriots are openly acknowledging this. There is danger. The implementation of this agreement, the implementation of this half-baked agreement is dangerous. Who is saying this? Their judge in the European Court. He is saying: The Greek Cypriot requests and the Turkish Cypriot rejections in connection with human rights will definitely lead Cyprus to a fight. It is dangerous.
We do not want danger. We want a real peace. We are saying that we are ready for a partnership if it can be established between two equal and sovereign parts. Your interest and decisions, speeches, and heated discussions on the Cyprus issue have always been a support for us. We see that we have not been forgotten. We see and feel that we are not orphans and that we are an inseparable part of a lofty nation of some 70 million. We continue our resistance with pride. With these thoughts in mind, I thank you from the bottom of my heart. We need your support, continue to extend it. May you live long".
 Erdogoan's party fully in line with the RPP and TPP on the Cyprus problemAnkara TRT 2 Television (06.03.03) broadcast that following the speech by Rauf Denktas, at the Turkish Grand National Assembly [TGNA] today, the Justice and Development Party [JDP], the Republican People's Party (RPP), and the True Path Party [TPP] issued a joint statement entitled "Declaration of Joint Support for Cyprus".
In the declaration, the three parties refer to past agreements and announce once again that they are behind the Turkish Cypriots. They sincerely support the efforts being made by the `TRNC' to achieve a just and lasting solution. They stress that the solution must be based on the equal status of the two sides. They say that it is necessary to retain the guarantor rights stemming from the 1960 agreements. They confirm that the disruption of the balances set in Cyprus between Turkey and Greece is utterly unacceptable. They point out that Turkey rejects the efforts to portray the solution of the Cyprus problem as a precondition for Turkey's membership in the EU. They alleged that the efforts to admit Cyprus to the EU before Turkey is a flagrant violation of international agreements. They emphasize that bi-zonality must be retained because it is the most important factor that enabled the Turkish and Greek Cypriots to live in peace and tranquillity for 28 years.
Last but not least, the three parties declare that reaching a peaceful and lasting solution in Cyprus, provided the said general principles are obeyed, will serve Turkey, the pseudostate, the Greek Cypriot community, and regional peace.
 Statements by Recep Tayyip Erdogan after meeting with Rauf Denktas in AnkaraIstanbul NTV Television (06.03.03) broadcast the statement by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, chairman of Justice and Development Party, after his meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas in Ankara.
Following are the statement by Mr Erdogan and his replies to questions: "I paid a visit to Mr Denktas. We exchanged views on our party's stand and the process under way on the issue of northern Cyprus prior to the Cankaya summit. I hope that the summit will yield a favorable decision. I wish that both the meeting in the Hague and its aftermath will be auspicious for northern Cyprus and all our brothers there.
Question: Mr Denktas does not want a referendum. Your views were different. Did you change your views?
Answer: I think that the decision to be adopted at the Cyprus summit will determine Mr Denktas' move.
Question: You talked about a favourable decision. Can you expand on it? What can be considered a favorable decision for you?
Answer: You know very well my stand until now. I have always been in favor of a solution. I have not talked about a document, however. I have always said that there is a problem that has to be solved. I have said that mutual self-sacrifices are needed for a solution and that this self-sacrifice cannot be expected from one side only. I am saying the same thing now, as well. This issue cannot be resolved by expecting the Turkish side only to make a sacrifice. The Greek Cypriot side should also make a self-sacrifice. The issue will be resolved when all these self-sacrifices are merged, combined, and mutual understanding is reached.
Question: Do you have any differences of views with Mr Denktas?
Answer: Dear friends, it may not always be possible to have complete overlapping and word-for-word correspondence. The important thing, however, is the happiness of northern Cyprus. The important thing is for northern Cyprus to live in tranquillity. I believe that it is sufficient reason for us to share and be in unison over this view.
Moreover, under the title: Denktas: "I shall not sign" Erdogan: "It blocks EU path" and subtitle: "The TRNC president Denktas, said to Erdogan: `I will not decide alone, final decision is Turkey's", MILLIYET newspaper (07.03.03), reports that the leader of the ruling party in Turkey Justice and Development Party (JDP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan told yesterday the Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas that "non- solution is blocking Turkey's path to the EU" .The paper writes that Erdogan and Denktas for the last three months were arguing through press and during yesterday's meeting in Ankara the atmosphere was tense.
According to the paper, before the meeting with Denktas, Erdogan had a four-hour meeting with the Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis and Turkish Foreign Ministry Under-Secretary Ambassador Ugur Ziyal during which he received a detailed briefing from them. MILLIYET reports that Erdogan came to the meeting with a written note in his hand and the following dialogue took place between Denktas and Erdogan:
Erdogan: We do believe that there is a problem in Cyprus. Well then, this must be solved. The solution of it may not guarantee Turkey's entry into the EU, however, the non-solution will definitely be a stumbling block.
Denktas: We could not accept this plan. The Greek Cypriots as well reject it. Despite this if they force the two communities to come together then there will be a chaos. However, this is not a decision that I could take alone. The final decision is Turkey's.
Erdogan: All of us have to dedicate ourselves to the decision that will be taken today (yesterday) at the summit. A clear cut decision should be taken at the summit; If there will be a solution let it be a solution .If there will be a non-solution let it be a non-solution.
Denktas: The existence of two separate states should continue. Reciprocal displacement will have very bad consequences. The Greek Cypriots will bother us.
The paper then reports that during the meeting, which lasted 75 minutes, Denktas tried to convince Erdogan about the negative aspects of the Annan plan and the pit- falls of holding a referendum. However, adds MILLIYET, at the end of the meeting Erdogan told the journalists: "We do want the meeting that will take place in the Hague with Annan and the developments after that be blessed for those living in north Cyprus. The decision which will be taken at the summit will decide Denktas' action as well".
 Erdogan, Gul and Yakis discussed the Cyprus problem togetherAnkara Anatolia news agency (06.03.03) reported from Ankara that Prime Minister Abudllah Gul, Justice and Development Party (JDP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis made evaluations late on Wednesday prior to the meeting which would be held on the Cyprus issue on Thursday.
Yakis said that they would determine an attitude after their meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas.
Gul made the evaluations on the Cyprus problem with Erdogan and Yakis in JDP Headquarters after he returned from Qatar. Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Ugur Ziyal and Cuneyd Zapsu, JDP Central Decision Executive Board member and adviser of Erdogan, also attended a part of the meeting.
Yakis told reporters after the meeting that they would determine an attitude after their meeting with Denktas because they were trying to act in cooperation with "TRNC" officials in every step of the Cyprus problem.
When asked to which point they reached as government wing in the meeting, Yakis said that the meeting was informative, not decision taking and added that they discussed what the third Annan Plan would bring and its difference from the second Annan Plan.
When recalled the statement of the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who said that they were expecting an answer until March 10, Yakis said that we already knew that they were expecting an answer until March 10, so there was nothing new.
 YENI DUZEN discloses the property acquired by the Eroglu family after the 1974 Turkish invasion of CyprusUnder the title "Why 'Even a span of land cannot be given' and NO to peace?" , YENI DUZEN (07.03.03) discloses the property acquired by so-called "prime minister" Dervis Eroglu's family after the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus.
According to the paper, Mr Eroglu's wife, Meral (Munuse) Eroglu, has since before 1993 seven plots of vacant land, one house and one piece of land for non- agricultural purposes. Mrs Eroglu has also 16.000 square meters of land at occupied Ayios Epiktitos, occupied Kyrenia area.
Furthermore, Mr Eroglu himself, continues YENI DUZEN, has a villa in occupied Kantara, Kyrenia area, which he acquired in 1996.
 Two agreements signed between Turkey and the puppet regime were put into forceKIBRIS (07.03.03) reports that the so-called official gazette of the pseudostate published two agreements signed between Turkey and the puppet regime, putting them into force.
As the paper reports the first agreement refers to cooperation in the merchant navy sector and the second one refers to cooperation in civil aviation.
 The "national" Taekwondo team of the pseudostate participated in an international meeting in MalaysiaBIRLIK (07.03.03) reports that the so-called national Taekwondo team of the puppet regime participated illegally in an international Taekwondo meeting, which took place in Malaysia. Along with the puppet regime, 200 athletes from Malaysia, Singapore, Germany, USA, Hong Kong, India, Poland and Canada took part in the competition.
According to the paper the team of the pseudostate was placed second in the medal board winning four gold and three silver medals.
 The occupation regime organized a rally against the Annan planIllegal Bayrak television (07.03.03) broadcast live the rally organized today in the occupied part of Nicosia by those in the occupied areas who are against the Annan plan and a solution in Cyprus.
Slogans such as "The martyrs do not die, the country cannot be given away", "We say `no' to the plan", "I could live without food, but never without my flag", "We are where Denktas is" and "Traitor Talat get lost" were shouted at the rally.
Addressing the rally, the Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas said that he was proud of being a member of the "great Turkish nation" and expressed his gratitude to Turkey for the support it gives the puppet regime. He noted that the result of his recent visit to Ankara is that Turkey will continue to be by the side of the Turkish Cypriots.
Mr Denktas argued that his opponents, that is the Turkish Cypriot opposition parties, "have blushed when they heart the results" of his contacts at Ankara's Presidential Mansion and the declaration of the Turkish Great National Assembly. Reminding that Ankara has expressed the opinion that this plan could not be accepted in its present form, Mr Denktas referred to the Special coordinator for Cyprus at the US State Department, Mr Tomas Weston, who, had attended the rally recently organized by the Turkish Cypriot opposition parties, and said:
"Where is Mr Weston today? Why does he not see this crowd? If we have to listen to the voice of the people, this is the voice of the people. This is the voice of the Turks".
Addressing the rally, Dervis Eroglu, so-called "prime minister" said that Ankara approved the policy his so-called government applies and referring to the Annan plan added: "We say `no' to the approval of this document in its present form. Today at this square the referendum is over".
Furthermore, addressing the rally Serdar Denktas, so-called "deputy prime minister", said that they take an oath to continue their struggle together with Mr Rauf Denktas "for a better Cyprus".
Afterwards, the declaration approved by the Turkish Grand National Assembly was read at the rally, in order to inform the participants on Turkey's stance on the Cyprus issue.
One of the speakers at the rally was the so-called Mufti of Western Thrace, Mehmet Emin Aga, who, inter alia, expressed his respect to the victims murdered, according to his allegation, by EOKA. On the EU he called on the Turkish Cypriots not to be mislead by the money lure because the Greeks will use this money to annihilate them.
[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
 Message by Grossman that the US will work as partners with Turkey on CyprusIstanbul STAR newspaper (05.03.03) publishes the following column by Zeynep Gurcanli under the title: "Balances shift, bargaining continues":
"Turkey. Bargaining never ends". These are the words of a senior US official.
Americans do not seem to have lost hope despite the fact that the motion on the deployment of US troops to Turkey was not approved by the National Assembly.
The only difference is that balances have shifted in both Washington and Ankara.
Statements issued by US Deputy Secretary of State Marc Grossman were the first signs of shifting balances in Washington.
The Bush administration has realized that the previous ultimatum-like statements on Turkey "backfired". The decision of the National Assembly enabled Washington to better see the "anti-war atmosphere" among the Turkish people.
Whereas "hawks" like Wolfowitz, who used to conduct relations with Turkey on the issue of Iraq, were pulled back, diplomats like Marc Grossman, who have a more "diplomatic" style, were brought to the fore.
Grossman's words are interesting:
"The only way for Saddam Husayn to disarm peacefully is for him to look around himself and see the pressure. This is why one of the disadvantages of what was experienced over the weekend (the rejection of the motion by the TGNA [Turkish Grand National Assembly]) is that we have lost one of our chances for peace."
The message Grossman goes on to convey is also important:
"We want to work with the Turkish administration in the same manner in the future as well. Turkey has economic problems and has to make important decisions concerning Cyprus. We want to work as partners with Turkey in these areas."
With these words, the US Deputy Secretary of State turns issues that had in one sense previously been used as "sticks" by the "hawks" into "carrots" for Turkey. He uses the "you will benefit from cooperation" message instead of conveying one that says "you will get into trouble unless you cooperate".
The difference in tone shows that the US administration has not lost hope with regard to the second motion. It also shows Turkish deputies that the United States has softened its style in a bid to "convince".
Americans are aware that even if they cannot deploy troops to Turkey they have no other choice but to use Turkish bases and airspace to be able to launch a swift and effective operation against Iraq. This is why they know the "bargaining will continue" and they hope that a second motion will be submitted.
The fact that the TGNA rejected the motion has deeply affected balances in Ankara as well. However, this mostly revolves around internal political dynamics.
Justice and Development Party [JDP] Leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is counting on being elected and becoming prime minister if the votes received by the People's Democracy Party in Siirt during the 3 November elections, approximately 40 percent, do not flow to the Republican People's Party (RPP).
It would be realistic to say that the JDP government, which is being pressured by economic problems, will commence negotiations with the United States once again after Erdogan becomes Prime Minister.
When viewed from this aspect, the timing of "additional taxes" announced immediately after the rejection of the motion seems extremely "planned". It is obvious that the people, who will blame additional taxes on the rejection of the motion, will pressure the deputies to "accept the motion this time".
Add to this the pressure Erdogan will exert on JDP deputies as "Prime Minister".
The outcome will quite probably be the approval of the second motion by a "great majority" of the National Assembly. In other words, Erdogan will have made his "leadership" felt and will have transformed defeat into "personal victory".
You reach the same conclusion no matter how you look at it: the balances are shifting, but the outcome is not changing.
It seems US troops will arrive in Turkey sooner or later."