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Cyprus PIO: Turkish Press and Other Media, 08-07-30
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From: The Republic of Cyprus Press and Information Office Server at <http://www.pio.gov.cy/>TURKISH PRESS AND OTHER MEDIA No. 144/08 30.07.08
[A] NEWS ITEMS
[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
[A] NEWS ITEMS
 Hasan Ercakica on the launching of negotiations on the 3rd of SeptemberUnder the title The negotiations brought excitement, Turkish Cypriot daily Halkin Sesi newspaper (30.07.08) reports in its first page that Hasan Ercakica, the spokesman of the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, stated yesterday that an agreement which will be reached between the two leaders in Cyprus will be approved by the people and added that the launching of negotiations created excitement.
The spokesman of the Turkish Cypriot leader made these statements yesterday during his weekly briefing to the press.
Mr Ercakica stated that the aim of the negotiations which will start on the 3rd of September is to produce a comprehensive solution plan which can be approved by the two people in a referendum and a new partnership state to emerge from the end of the negotiations. On this issue Mr Ercakica stated: This state will surely have elements from the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
He also said that the launching of negotiations creates excitement and added that they are aware of the difficulties that will appear in the process.
As regards the issue of the launching of negotiations on the 3rd of September, Mr Ercakica stated that the Turkish Cypriot side, for four years now, made intensive efforts for this result and added that their president showed flexibility despite the difficulties he faced. He also added that the Turkish Cypriot side will continue to do everything possible so that the two people may reach an agreement they can approve.
The spokesman of the Turkish Cypriot leader also said that the statements of President Christofias and his spokespersons that a future solution would enable the continuation of the Republic of Cyprus, which turned into a Greek Cypriot Republic today, as he stated, are not contributing to the new process.
Reporting on the same issue, Turkish Cypriot daily KIBRIS newspaper (30.07.08) writes that Mr Ercakica stated that Mr Talat voiced the Turkish Cypriot sides willingness for a solution to the Cyprus problem during his meeting with Mr Downer, and added that Mr Talat stressed the attention to the role of the UN in the new process and told Mr Downer that the lifting of the international isolation of the Turkish Cypriots will contribute a lot to a solution.
Referring to the frequency of the meetings between the two leaders, Mr Ercakica stated that the Turkish Cypriot side wanted the negotiations to be held as frequently by as possible. As he said, meeting once a week can be a waste of time, meeting twice a week has practical difficulties.
Speaking about the timetable of the solution Mr Ercakica stated: Our presidents aim is a solution to be found by the end of 2008. Evaluating if this aim is realistic, Mr Ercakica said that this is an aim but it will be useful even if a solution is found in the first half of the year 2009.
Turkish Cypriot daily Yeni VOLKAN newspaper (30.07.08) reports on the same issue under the title The Republic of Cyprus will not continue. The paper reports that Hasan Ercakica tried to calm the reactions of the people to Talat, who has accepted the UN one sided decisions, the single sovereignty and the single citizenship.
 Ozdil Nami said that Talats aim is solution to be found by the end of the year 2008Turkish Cypriot daily Yeni Duzen newspaper (30.07.08) reports that Ozdil Nami, the special representative of the Turkish Cypriot leader, stated that the two people in Cyprus may go into referendum in the end of the year 2008 or in the beginning on the year 2009. Mr Nami made these statements speaking yesterday on the Turkish Cypriot Sim Radio, where he made statements regarding the meeting on the 25th of July between President Demetris Christofias and the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat.
Mr Nami stated that before the 25th of July they were afraid that the Greek Cypriot side was playing with time and added that they did everything possible so that this would not happen. He also said that the launching of negotiations on the 3rd of September was the result of a positive dialogue between the two sides.
Referring to the direct telephone line which will be established between the two leaders, Mr Nami said that this will help to clarify statements made by the two leaders which may be misunderstood.
On the issue of the opening of the Limnitis barricade, Mr Nami stated that even if the works for the opening of Limnitis were started now, the barricade could be opened not later than after one year.
Referring to the visit of the UN Secretary-Generals Special Adviser for Cyprus Alexander Downer, to the island, Mr Nami said that it shows the sensitivity of the UN Secretary-General on the Cyprus problem.
 Durduran evaluated the latest developments in the Cyprus problemTurkish Cypriot daily Afrika newspaper (30.0708) reports that the New Cyprus Party (YKP) evaluated the latest developments in the Cyprus problem. Alpay Durduran, the Foreign Relations Secretary of the Party said that the statement of the two leaders to launch full-fledged talks on September 3rd, as well as to take 16 measures, in addition to the already decided six measures, is a sign that the work in Cyprus will go well. But, Durduran added, everyone has admitted that the key to the solution is still in Ankaras hands. So the possibility of the work to go well is very little, if we add the fact that there is also the prospect of government change in Turkey. He also said that if Turkey is determined for a solution, then it should open its ports to the Republic of Cyprus. However, he said, if Turkey opens its ports to Cyprus, no one will be able to understand claims such as that there will be major problem in the Cyprus dispute because Turkey would have recognized the Greek Cypriot Administration.
 The occupation regime solved its electricity problems for the next fifteen years with the reinforcement of the Electricity Power Plant in occupied TrapezaTurkish Cypriot daily Star Kibris newspaper (30.07.08) reports that the first transformer which will increase the electricity production at the Electricity Power Plant in occupied Trapeza village arrived yesterday at occupied Famagusta port. According to the paper, the Electricity Power Plant will be reinforced with two units of 35 megawatts each.
The first unit will start operating in September and the second unit will start operating in November for the problems in electricity power supply during the months of winter to be solved.
Commenting on the issue, the self-styled prime minister, Ferdi Soyer stated that electric energy is the basis of development for a country and added: In the countries where there is no energy, social life and development cannot exist. He also said that the new units is an investment for the future and added that their aim as a government is the building of infra-structures.
On his part, the self-styled minister of economy, Ahmet Uzun, stated inter alia that the government kept its promises and the electricity supply problems were solved on time. From now on we will have no need to buy electricity from the Greek Cypriots. If a request comes we can even sell electricity to them, he stated and added that with the new development, which took place with the help of Turkey, the electricity problems of the Turkish Cypriots will be solved for the next fifteen years.
 The TRNC flag was hoisted on TRNC Coast Guard Boat 03Turkish Cypriot daily Yeni Volkan newspaper (30.0708) reports that the TRNC flag was hoisted on the Coast Guard Boat with the name KKTC SG 03, which was manufactured to protect the coasts of the occupied areas of Cyprus. The paper reports that in a ceremony held in the shipyard of the Golcuk naval base in Turkey, the Turkish flag was hoisted by Admiral Metin Atac on behalf of the Turkish Chief of the General Staff, General Yasar Buyukanit, while the representative of the occupation regime in Ankara, Tamer Gazioglu, hoisted the TRNC flag on the Coast Guard Boat.
 The self-styled foreign ministry asked explanations from France on the issue of visas to TRNC passport holdersTurkish Cypriot daily Star Kibris newspaper (30.07.08) reports that the self-styled ministry of foreign affairs of the occupation regime announced that it has asked from France to give explanations on the issue which appeared yesterday in the newspapers headlines. STAR KIBRIS published yesterday that France has stopped giving visa to TRNC passport holders or to people with Turkish passports given by the illegal Turkish Embassy in occupied Lefkosia.
According to the statement of the self-styled foreign ministry, the implementation of the changes in the procedure followed by France as regards the TRNC citizens, came to its knowledge some time ago and as officials of the foreign ministry and the presidency, asked from France detailed explanations and the reasons that led it to this decision. The French officials, on one hand confirmed that changes were made in the procedure, but, on the other hand, conveyed to the self-styled ministry that the decision as regards these changes is not final. The French officials stated that they will see the issue again, according to the statement of the self-styled foreign ministry.
 KTOS held a press conference replying to accusations regarding their meeting with the Interior Minister of the Republic of CyprusTurkish Cypriot daily Afrika newspaper (30.0708) reports that the Turkish Cypriot Teachers Trade Union (KTOS) held a press conference in order to reply to criticism and accusations that they submitted to the Interior Minister of the Republic of Cyprus, Mr Neoklis Sylikiotis, the project regarding the structure of the population in the elementary schools in the occupied areas of Cyprus.
Sener Elcil, General Secretary of KTOS, commenting on their meeting with the Interior Minister, said that their meeting was not held secretly but it was transparent. The Chairman of KTOS, Guven Varoglu, added that they exchanged views with the Mr Sylikiotis, for the education changes that will be made. He also said that they discussed the situation of the Turkish Cypriots who live in the government-controlled areas. Finally, he said that KTOS has nothing to hide or fear of.
 A colossal cultural centre to be completed with finance coming from the Turkish RepublicUnder the above title, Turkish Cypriot daily Yeni Duzen newspaper (30.07.08) writes that the illegal Eastern Mediterranean University and the so-called municipality of occupied Famagusta will become the owners of a colossal congress and cultural centre which will be built in occupied Famagusta.
The work which is a joint venture of the two bodies is being financed by the Assistance Committee of the embassy of the Turkish Republic in the occupied areas of the Republic of Cyprus.
The centre will have several conference and meeting rooms, exhibition halls, a VIP room and cafeterias.
 Erdogan: Turkeys defence industry needs to be boostedAnkara Anatolia news agency (29.07.08) reported the following from Sakarya:
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Turkey gradually played a more active foreign policy role in addition to its geopolitical and strategic position.
Speaking at a signing ceremony for Defence Industry Undersecretariat National Tank Project Contract, Erdogan said: 'Turkey assumes an active role in solution of many regional and global problems. The Turkish Armed Forces has to have a national defence industry that may help armed forces to improve its supplies and capabilities. Our target is to fulfil the activities in question by utilizing facilities and capabilities of the national industry as far as we can. Many projects took effect in recent years to meet the needs of the Turkish Armed Forces. I would like to reaffirm my belief that we will exceed our target to procure at least half of the needs of the Turkish Armed Forces with local resources till the year 2011'.
Under the front page title First Turkish tank Altay", Turkish daily Sabah newspaper (30.07.08) writes that Turkey has started initiatives to manufacture the best tank of the world, a project which was launched in 1995. A prototype of the Turkish tank Altay" will be produced in 2014 and $500 million will be spent on the research and development studies for the tank. Approximately 600 engineers will be working on Altay.
The Otokar company of Koc Holding will produce the Altay tank in Sakarya and it will replace the old tanks used by the Turkish Armed Forces. The contract was signed yesterday during a ceremony by the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the presence of the South Korean Defence Minister, Lee Sang-Hee, since the tank project is to be jointly conducted by Turkey and South Korea. The latter will offer to Turkey technological support.
In his statements, the Turkish Defence Industry Undersecretary Murad Bayar said that the majority of Turkey's tanks are in a non-usable condition, that this tank will be better than others in the world and that Altay will be used by both the Turkish Armed Forces and it will be exported to foreign countries. He also added that the huge experience gained by Turkey through the modernization of Leopar and M60, contributed to their decision to manufacture the new tank.
On his part, the Chairman of the Defence Industry of Koc Holding, Kudret Onen, said that the Altay tank will be used by units of the United Nations and more, by the army of 15 countries.
Sabah further cites the models and the number of tanks which Turkey currently has. The list is as follows:
Model Number M448A5T1-T2 1980 M60A1 274 M60A3 650 Leopar 1A1 and 1A4 164 Leopar 1A3T1 229 Total 3297
 Turkish Assembly to open to the public all its law archivesTurkish daily Sabah newspaper (30.07.08) writes that the Turkish Grand National Assembly will open to the public the archives which include all the laws approved by the assembly. The archives will be divided into four sections: 1920-1960, 1960-1970, 1970-1980, 1980 until now. People interested in studying the achieves can have an online access using the link HYPERLINK "http://www.tbmm.gov.tr" www.tbmm.gov.tr
 Babacan holds contacts in IranAnkara Anatolia news agency (29.07.08) reported the following from Tehran:
Turkish Foreign Minister & Chief Negotiator for the EU talks Ali Babacan met on Tuesday his Iranian counterpart Manuchehr Motaki.
Babacan is currently in Tehran to attend the 15th Ministerial Conference of the Non-Aligned Movement.
Speaking at the meeting, Motaki condemned the bomb attack in Istanbul and said he shared sorrows of Turkish state and people.
Babacan is scheduled to meet Saeed Jalili, secretary of Supreme National Security Council, Iran's nuclear negotiator later today. The Turkish Foreign Minister is expected to meet with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday.
The Non-Aligned Movement is an international organization of states considering themselves not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc. It was founded in April 1955; as of 2007, it has 118 members. The purpose of the organization as stated in the Havana Declaration of 1979 is to ensure "the national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of non-aligned countries".
Representatives from 118 member-countries, 15 observer countries as well as 8 regional and international organizations are attending the conference. Turkey attends the conference as observer.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan met Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday on the sidelines of the 15th Ministerial Conference of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran.
The meeting was originally scheduled for Wednesday. The Turkish foreign minister later met Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.
 Turkish airplanes hit militants in Northern IraqAnkara Anatolia news agency (29.07.08) reported the following from Ankara: Turkish military said Tuesday that a group of 30-40 terrorists were spotted in and outside a cave used as a hide-out in Qandil region in the north of Iraq and the hide-out was destroyed in an air strike.
The Turkish General Staff said in a statement posted on its internet site that most of the terrorists were killed in the operation. Turkish military said the number of terrorists killed in the operation could not be confirmed. The statement also said that another target was hit by Turkish fighter jets in Zap region.
 Ergenekon uses Workers' Party as cover for illegal activitiesUnder the above title, Turkish daily Todays Zaman newspaper (30.07.08) reported the following:
Ergenekon, a shadowy organization that allegedly planned to overthrow the government, chose the small Workers Party (IP) to use in its operations due the partys illegal activities and covert funding.
The chairman and the secretary-general of the IP, known for its extreme nationalism despite its left-wing roots, are currently jailed over their suspected involvement in the Ergenekon organization, which has been accused of a large number of unsolved political murders and attacks previously attributed to terrorist organizations of varying political leanings.
Documents seized during a police raid on the home of Ergenekon suspect Umit Oguztan clearly indicate why the IP and its leader, Dogu Perincek, were chosen by the terrorist organization. The report, which the indictment says was written within the Ergenekon organization, states that the 0P is committed to making its voice heard despite not being represented in Parliament through staying close to both legal and illegal centres of power.
Ergenekon s report on the IP said the party worked under a communist ideology but that it 'tries not to object to Kemalism,' the ideology of those who claim they are the real followers of the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The document, which was drafted at a time when the Ergenekon organization was being restructured, says, 'It is an important point that the IPs financial sources are secret.' It also says the IP uses different power centres from various segments of society, pointing out that the party is being financed by China. The report also praises the extent of the partys archives of files on various individuals.
The indictment says Ergenekon suspect Oguztan worked jointly with famous transvestite Seyhan Soylu, also known as Sisi, during the process leading up to the Feb. 28, 2007 unarmed military intervention. Oguztan, who is known for having written many erotic books, and Sisi, who was an important actor in the Feb. 28 political process, worked together on a journal called Strategy, known for its support for the military intervention.
The document on the IP found in Oguztans home says: 'The IP has a structure different from other political parties. Even though it is a political party not represented in Parliament, it has always managed to be heard in every period and retained its standing among illegal and legal power centres. In this context, it is obvious that it has a remarkable special characteristic among legal political parties. Turkeys Workers Party and the Aydinlik group are organized in line with communist ideology. However, it is also noteworthy that it consciously tries not to oppose Kemalism and makes an effort to defend Kemalism in political platforms.'
The document also notes that the IP has traditionally relied on provocative methods to manipulate the people and shape public opinion in accordance with its agenda.
 Turkish speaking countries to meet in Baku on September 5Turkish daily Todays Zaman newspaper (30.07.08) reported the following:
A 'hot autumn' will descend on the Turkish capital this year as it faces a challenging schedule concerning its policies regarding its two Caucasian neighbours -- policies which it will have to handle with delicacy.
President Abdullah Gul is to participate in the ninth summit of the heads of state of Turkic-speaking countries, to be held in Baku on Sept. 5. In addition to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the summits host, presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are also expected to participate. Gul has an official invitation to visit Turkeys estranged neighbour Armenia the day after the summit in Baku concludes.
Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan invited Gul to a World Cup qualifying match between the national soccer teams of the two countries which will be played in Yerevan on Sept. 6 and called for dialogue to help normalize ties, saying this will be mutually beneficial.
Both diplomats at the Foreign Ministry and officials close to the Cankaya Presidential Palace are tight-lipped on whether Gul will honour Sarksyans invitation, which has led to the definition of the current state of affairs in international media as 'soccer diplomacy.' Analysts say Ankara will probably announce its decision on the matter at the latest possible moment while continuing its reticence as long as possible.
Sources close to Guls office say, however, that 'Cankaya Palaces assessment of the invitation is positive.'
Turkey severed its ties and closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in protest of Armenian occupation of the Azerbaijani territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Gul recently reiterated emphasis on respect for territorial integrity, and it has been widely considered a sign that Turkey is not planning to reverse its policy on ties with Armenia any time soon unless Yerevan agrees to take a step back in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, despite a recent thaw in relations.
'Normalization of bilateral relations with Yerevan will not only be helpful for Armenia, but will also be helpful for Turkey,' a senior Turkish diplomat recently told Todays Zaman. 'Normalization is a need not only for our landlocked neighbour in order to rid itself of its isolated situation under difficult economic conditions. Normalization is a need for us as well,' the same diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.
The Azerbaijani capital is, meanwhile, waiting for Guls final decision despite assurances given by Turkey that Ankaras policy towards Yerevan has not changed.
'One should not forget that we are not Armenias enemies despite the absence of diplomatic recognition. Almost 70,000 Armenian citizens are currently earning their livelihood in Turkey,' another diplomat also noted.
 Poll in Turkey shows peoples views on AKP closure caseTurkish daily Hurriyet newspaper (29.07.08) reported the following:
The number of Turkish people expecting the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to be closed by the Constitutional Court decreased to 38 percent in July from 58 percent in June, a poll conducted by a research company showed on Tuesday.
The national poll conducted with 4,563 respondents by ANDY-AR Social Research Centre on 23-27 July, showed that 46.4 percent of Turkish people do not expect an AKP closure ruling to be handed down in the case, rising from 20.3 percent in June. Fifteen percent of respondents have no opinion regarding the issue, according to the poll.
Turkey has locked in political turmoil as every actor in Ankara awaits the top court's ruling, which began deliberation on Monday, in the closure case against the ruling AKP. Top prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, accused the ruling party of becoming the focal point of anti-secular activities.
According to the poll, AKP support among Turks fell to 42.9 percent in July, from 52.6 percent in January. Support to the main opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP) fell to 13.1 percent in July, from 14.1 percent in January, while support for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) support fell to 13.3 percent in July from 14.5 percent in January. The number of undecided voters trebled to 20.4 percent in July.
The poll also showed that more than half of society thinks that the 'Ergenekon' probe launched against anti-AKP politicians, journalists and intellectuals, is a move by the AKP to show its power in revenge for the closure case.
According to the figures released in the poll, 46.6 percent of respondents say 'Ergenekon' was an act of revenge, while 38.3 percent do not adopt this theory.In the Ergenekon investigation, anti-AKP politicians, journalists and intellectuals, are accused of being members of an illegal organization believed to be planning provoking events that would pave the way for a military coup to overthrow the ruling government. A number of the accused are still being held in custody pending trial.
Many question whether the operation is being used to suppress opponents of the ruling party.
The poll also showed support to the 'Ergenekon' probe at 74.3 percent, while just 25.7 percent of respondent said they are not in support of an investigation.
[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS
 Ergenekon indictment unveils TurkeyUnder the above title, Turkish Daily News newspaper (29.07.08) publishes the following opinion by Nabi Yagci:
This case is like the preamble to our hidden history, revealing why democracy, like a poor child, has failed to grow up in our Republic.
Although I wrote repeatedly that I had no doubts about some coup preparations, frankly I was not expecting such a loaded Ergenekon indictment and that the prosecutors can dare a thorough investigation. I think that's why the indictment caused a 'shock' in the press. We had already heard so many matters, relations or incidents long before the indictment was publicly announced. But still, this indictment is shocking not because of its being an in-depth examination or not because of the well-known personas involved in this suit.
There will be many things to be talked about in such a voluminous indictment. First of all, let me share with you what struck me: the reckless style of communication among the suspects who are alleged to have ties with the Ergenekon crime network. Even plots and assassination targets are openly talked about in telephone conversations or in meetings, and documents were kept in safety boxes. We see plenty of examples given in the indictment or in news reports suggesting we are facing an unprofessional, informal organization.
Subtitle: Like the mafia
It is indeed informal in a way because these coup-makers are in close ties with the mafia, so they inevitably become rotten as well. If the claims in the indictment are true, the Ergenekon gang is said have decided to reorganize mafia gang and use them. It is then impossible to keep everything secret in such a structure.
But this recklessness signals a very critical point: I see that the mafia having links with this organization, the hit men and the leaders were extremely sure that there will be a coup soon. That's why they were so comfortable and reckless in conversations among themselves. At that point, they were very serious though. Turkey is saved from a new coup. I hope that we are saved indeed!
In short, my first impression of the indictment was first of all that the likelihood of a coup was so high, and secondly I was struck by its content. There are clear signs about the Susurluk and Semdinli incidents. Although the indictment does not directly include the murders by unknown perpetrators in the Southeast, they were pointed out too. We see that some of the Ergenekon leaders are trained for operations against Kurds in the Southeast. This will be extremely important in the public eye. The indictment reaches the murders of Hrant Dink, Necip Hablemitoglu and Ugur Mumcu, the Council of State attack, and even Cyprus.
Thirdly, something is locked in the indictment, examinations clog at some point. The prosecutors, without doubt, act on evidence and information. The indictment introduces the claim of coup preparations, yet that part has some discrepancies. And I think this will be fixed when we see the additional indictment prepared for a few detainees who are excluded from the main indictment for now. A vital point is that whether or not the coup diaries published in the Nokta news magazine will be included as part of the documentation.
Let's not forget that the main claim is the preparation of a coup by creating anarchy, chaos and ruckus and to pull the army inside this turmoil. Therefore, the headline daily Cumhuriyet used on the first day, which read Coup by a Shotgun, was the product of the hopelessness they felt after failing to denigrate the content of the indictment. A shotgun may not be enough to hunt the government, but it is enough to confuse the public mind.
Subtitle: Democracy, our poor child
It is in the court's jurisdiction to decide whether or not the accused are guilty, whether they have connections with the Ergenekon, what their legal liabilities are or whether the evidence is adequate. But in addition to all these, this case is like the preamble of our hidden history, revealing why democracy, like a poor child, has failed to grow up in the Republic. As a matter of fact, the Ergenekon indictment, through generous amount of materials, officially unveils our history of conspiracy theories and military coup d'etats by touching the untouchables.
Now it is our turn to attribute meaning to such loaded material, to witness the past and to reveal the hidden history by writing it out. The real witnesses in the Ergenekon case are everyone who suffers from lack of democracy.
 What will happen if the AKP is closed down?Turkish daily Vatan newspaper (29.07.08) published the following commentary by Rusen Cakir:
A New Party Will Be Established
No Division: In the event of the AKP [Justice and Development Party] being closed down, the most likely probability would be for the parliamentary deputies, mayors, and party members not themselves banned to join a new party. It does not appear likely in the case of the AKP for two or more parties to emerge, as occurred in the case of the Welfare Party.
Some Will Defect: It will be quite difficult for Abdullatif Sener to break off a very great piece of the AKP, except for a few disgruntled people. There is next to no one who would, in the event of a closure, switch to the CHP [Republican People's Party], the MHP [Nationalist Action Party], and other parties. Nonetheless, it could occur that there could be small-scale defections, and even that some people would abandon politics entirely.
Some New People Will Come: It would not be a surprise for as many new people as leave the party, or even for more new people, to join the party that will be established after the AKP. Indeed, in order not to appear as "the continuation of a banned party," it will be essential for the new party to have a certain number of founding members and leaders that do not come out of the AKP. They could treat this as an opportunity and insist on the strategy of "opening to the centre" that they initiated prior to the elections of 22 July 2007, and could attract a large number of interesting people.
Move Toward an Existing Party
Since, in the event of closure, the parliamentarians of AKP origin in the TBMM [Turkish Grand National Assembly] would easily be able to form a parliamentary group, there would be no obstacle before them in terms of taking part in the first election. Moreover, the biggest advantage of the AKP was that it was a party with "zero mileage." For this reason, the likelihood of continuing with an existing party like the BBP [Great Unity Party] or the Strong Turkey Party, rather than a brand new party, is almost nonexistent.
Someone Picked by [Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan Will be Prime Minister
New Party's Leader: If the AKP should be closed and Erdogan banned from politics, one of the active parliamentarians (or even ministers) would come to the head of the new party. We can say with hundred-percent certainty that this person would be chosen by Erdogan. The first thing that comes to mind is for the leader of the new party to be, at the same time, the Prime Minister. But when one looks at the names of people who would not be banned, there do not appear to be all that many individuals who would be able to manage both of these difficult tasks at the same time - even on behalf of someone else.
Someone Else From the Group: It is expected that, if the AKP government should fall, President [Abdullah] Gul would appoint someone from the old AKP group (and probably the last cabinet) as the new Prime Minister. There is no doubt whatsoever in terms of this person being identified by Erdogan. But there is no requirement that this individual be the chairman of the new party. In other words, we could confront, in the new period, a movement whose true leader is Erdogan and which two other individuals manage.
According to one claim, after the AKP is closed down and the government falls, a person coming out of the AKP who will be tasked by Gul with forming a cabinet will not prepare the list within the allotted time, and the President will have to take the country to an early election, and the government will then be established after this election. But since even if everyone for whom a political banning is being sought should be banned, over 300 parliamentarians would remain in the party that would succeed the AKP, there is no need to take recourse to such tricks for an early election.
Independent in By-Election, Then Cabinet: If he should be subjected to a political ban, Erdogan will do whatever he can to become a parliamentary deputy again and even enter into the government. The first way to do this that comes to mind is for him to run as an independent candidate in by-elections to be held before the end of the year, and to get a very high percentage of the vote. After being elected as an independent parliamentarian, we look upon Erdogan's going into the cabinet, and even becoming Prime Minister again, as certain.
Independent in Early Election, Then Cabinet: If the Supreme Election Board should accept the interpretation of [former Chief Prosecutor of Supreme Court of Appeals Sabih] Kanadoglu and close off the path of a by-election to Erdogan and his comrades, then the AKP-origin deputies in the TBMM will definitely take a decision for early elections. In this situation, we could even expect President Gul to task Erdogan, elected as an independent, to form the new government. We can predict that Erdogan, even if he does not become the Prime Minister, will absolutely have a place in the government.
Remaining Outside Politics and Heading an NGO: Even if the chance of Erdogan and the other banned individuals not being able to take part at all in elections as independent candidates is very slim, it does exist. In such an extraordinary situation, Erdogan will definitely not surrender, but will control and influence, in as close and firm a way as possible, the new party, government, and TBMM group. In the meantime, he could also establish a non-governmental organization and continue to travel around the country and even the world. Throughout this process, the parliamentarians of the new party will wrack their brains, and push the limits, for legal arrangements that would permit Erdogan to return to active politics.
By-Election (Together With Local Elections): Following the closure of the AKP, the TBMM would normally make a decision for a by-election for the empty seats, and the by-elections, which would take place toward the end of the year, would be combined with the local elections scheduled for March of 2009. The banned former AKP members, led by Erdogan, would run as independents in the by-election, and a large portion of them would win. Then there would be a revision of the existing government in order to open places for Erdogan and the individuals he considers suitable.
Early Election (Together With Local Elections): For a new party, with its chairman and emblem, to go into elections immediately following the closure of the AKP does not appear to be very smart. Even so, if, as Sabih Kanadoglu claims, Erdogan and his comrades do not have the right to take part in by-elections as independents, the TBMM will call for an early election, and combine this with the local elections. The banned former AKP members, led by Erdogan, will either become independent candidates from regions where few deputies are elected, or else will develop certain formulas such as the DTP [Democratic Society Party] independents did in the 22 July elections. Then there would be a revision of the existing government in order to open places for Erdogan, elected as an independent, and the other individuals he considers suitable.
Delayed Early Election (Following Local Elections): If the banned individuals should not be able to become parliamentary deputies again in any way, then a by-election will be held and new names without legal problems will be put into the TBMM. The new party, by instituting certain legal and constitutional arrangements, will then go to an early general election, even if a delayed one, in order to be able to have Erdogan and his comrades elected to parliament once again.